Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.27
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Botev Plovdiv win · Arda Kardzhali 2–3 Botev Plovdiv
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "5482996cd38226d2716f04eccca1ba5bff14aa7671120525397ed033080e7d8f",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"away_win_prob": 0.4117,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.547,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.453,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3223,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.43,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.1,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.76,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.95,
"home_win_prob": 0.266,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.375,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.625
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Arda Kardzhali",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Arda Kardzhali"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1288,
"edge_gap": 0.0889,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2827,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.1,
"draw": 32.3,
"home": 26.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.37
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.37,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Botev Plovdiv Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.54,
"market_odds": 3.37,
"model_odds": 2.43,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": 11.5,
"value_pct": 38.7,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 6,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 3,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 6,
"home_score_rate": 61.3,
"no_prob": 54.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 45.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 0.95,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Arda Kardzhali or Draw",
"prob": 58.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Arda Kardzhali or Botev Plovdiv",
"prob": 67.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Botev Plovdiv",
"prob": 73.4
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Botev Plovdiv",
"pick_prob": 73.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 41.2,
"draw_pct": 32.2,
"home_pct": 26.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Botev Plovdiv"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.19,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 37.5,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.19,
"under_prob": 62.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 38.8,
"implied_prob": 29.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Botev Plovdiv Win",
"model_prob": 41.2,
"odds": 3.37
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Botev Plovdiv",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 28.27,
"draw": 29.77,
"home": 41.96
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-04 18:14:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-04 17:44:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Arda Kardzhali",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.96,
"gap_pp": -15.37,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 26.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.77,
"gap_pp": 2.49,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 32.26
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.27,
"gap_pp": 12.88,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.15
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.19,
"gap_pp": -5.69,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 37.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.81,
"gap_pp": 5.69,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 62.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.27,
"early": 2.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.96,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 41.96,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.2,
"early": 3.2,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 29.77,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.37,
"early": 3.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.27,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.19,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.81,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.9,
"ev": 0.39,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.139,
"model_prob_pct": 13.9,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.9
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.2
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.6
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.95,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0577,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2827,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0577,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3868,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"sort_key": 10201.93,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 37.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 62.5,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 54.7,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 45.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 821.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 13.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"alert_team": "Arda Kardzhali",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.36,
"hero_label": "Arda Kardzhali",
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"market_team": "Arda Kardzhali",
"model_prob_pct": 41.2,
"model_team": "Botev Plovdiv",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Botev Plovdiv), but pricing still diverges by 15.4 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Botev Plovdiv), but pricing still diverges by 15.4 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0577,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3867,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botev Plovdiv at 41.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botev Plovdiv as the value side (41.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botev Plovdiv",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Botev Plovdiv \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +39% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551096 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Botev Plovdiv), but pricing still diverges by 15.4 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +39% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0577,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2827,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3868,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "7/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5384615384615384,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.36,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.36,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.95,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.24,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.95 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"steam_team": "Arda Kardzhali",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Botev Plovdiv), but pricing still diverges by 15.4 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Botev Plovdiv), but pricing still diverges by 15.4 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0577,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3867,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botev Plovdiv at 41.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botev Plovdiv as the value side (41.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botev Plovdiv",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Botev Plovdiv \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +39% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551096 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Botev Plovdiv), but pricing still diverges by 15.4 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +39% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0577,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2827,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3868,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Arda Kardzhali 0.95 xG vs Botev Plovdiv 1.24 \u2192 Botev Plovdiv 41.2%",
"Market: Arda Kardzhali ~28.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Arda Kardzhali odds \u2191 +15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Botev Plovdiv, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -15.36,
"fair_prob": 26.6,
"label": "Arda Kardzhali",
"market_prob": 41.96,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.46,
"fair_prob": 32.23,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.77,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.9,
"fair_prob": 41.17,
"label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"market_prob": 28.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -15.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.6,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Arda Kardzhali",
"market_prob_pct": 41.96,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Arda Kardzhali"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Arda Kardzhali\u0027s win probability at 42.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 26.6%, a difference of 15.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 15.36,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+12.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 12.9,
"model_prob_pct": 41.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+12.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Botev Plovdiv \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Arda Kardzhali 0.95 xG vs Botev Plovdiv 1.24 \u2192 Botev Plovdiv 41.2%",
"Market: Arda Kardzhali ~28.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Arda Kardzhali odds \u2191 +15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Botev Plovdiv, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -15.36,
"hero_label": "Arda Kardzhali",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Arda Kardzhali odds lengthened \u2191 +15.4%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Arda Kardzhali than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Arda Kardzhali.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Arda Kardzhali than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Arda Kardzhali."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Arda Kardzhali more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Arda Kardzhali (\u2191 +15.4%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.36,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.9 pp (at 41.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.9,
"max_prob_pct": 41.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Arda Kardzhali",
"largest_gap_pp": -15.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Arda Kardzhali higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -15.36,
"edge_pp": -15.36,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.6,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Arda Kardzhali",
"market_prob_pct": 41.96,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.46,
"edge_pp": 2.46,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.23,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.77,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 12.9,
"edge_pp": 12.9,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.17,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"market_prob_pct": 28.27,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Arda Kardzhali.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Arda Kardzhali (28.3%).",
"Arda Kardzhali odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +15.4%, 7/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Botev Plovdiv, Market \u2192 Arda Kardzhali, while Arda Kardzhali odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.05,
"closing_odds": 2.27,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.05,
"entry_odds": 2.27,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 24m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Arda Kardzhali (15.4%, 7/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.27",
"2.11",
"1.95"
],
"display": "2.27 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 154h 24m",
"pick_team": "Arda Kardzhali",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.27"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.95,
2.27,
2.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.95"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.27"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.95,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Arda Kardzhali",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Arda Kardzhali",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"current_odds": 2.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"open_odds": 1.95,
"pick_team": "Arda Kardzhali",
"steam_score": 38,
"steam_team_name": "Arda Kardzhali",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Botev Plovdiv",
"away_team_id": 634,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/634.webp",
"away_team_name": "Botev Plovdiv",
"away_team_public_id": "0A2Qv4YhvIqGH2",
"away_team_slug": "botev-plovdiv",
"country_code": "BG",
"country_display_name": "Bulgaria",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/bg.svg",
"country_id": 25,
"country_name": "Bulgaria",
"fixture_id": 1551096,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Bulgaria",
"home_team_display_name": "Arda Kardzhali",
"home_team_id": 1430,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1430.webp",
"home_team_name": "Arda Kardzhali",
"home_team_public_id": "4gyCBOXWNVCPQv",
"home_team_slug": "arda-kardzhali",
"league_country": "Bulgaria",
"league_country_display": "Bulgaria",
"league_display_name": "Primera Liga de Bulgaria",
"league_id": 172,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/172.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Liga de Bulgaria",
"league_public_id": "4cmwkammgUOIQT",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-04 18:15:00",
"public_id": "3P0yPti9ajL6qL",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kardzhali",
"venue_name": "Arena Arda"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.242,
"best_odd": 3.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0312,
"ev": 0.0577,
"implied_prob": 0.2827,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2827,
"draw": 0.2977,
"home": 0.4196
},
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"p_final": 0.3138
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2888,
"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0072,
"ev": -0.0244,
"implied_prob": 0.2977,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2827,
"draw": 0.2977,
"home": 0.4196
},
"model_prob": 0.3226,
"p_final": 0.3049
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3462,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0532,
"ev": -0.1682,
"implied_prob": 0.4196,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2827,
"draw": 0.2977,
"home": 0.4196
},
"model_prob": 0.2659,
"p_final": 0.3664
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.37,
"edge": 0.1148,
"ev": 0.3867,
"implied_prob": 0.2967,
"model_prob": 0.4115
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.2,
"edge": 0.0101,
"ev": 0.0322,
"implied_prob": 0.3125,
"model_prob": 0.3226
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.1746,
"ev": -0.3963,
"implied_prob": 0.4405,
"model_prob": 0.2659
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.19,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0577,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3867,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0577,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 15.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.4,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Botev Plovdiv), but pricing still diverges by 15.4 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0577,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3867,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Botev Plovdiv at 41.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Botev Plovdiv as the value side (41.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Botev Plovdiv",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Botev Plovdiv \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.37 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +39% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1551096 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.37 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Botev Plovdiv), but pricing still diverges by 15.4 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +39% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0577,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2827,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3868,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -8.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.29
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.453,
"draw_prob": 0.3226,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4115,
"over_prob": 0.375,
"total_xg": 2.19,
"under_prob": 0.625,
"xg_diff": 0.29
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0312,
"ev": 0.0577,
"implied_prob": 0.2827,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Botev Plovdiv"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.547,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.625,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1551096,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0577,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4115,
"draw": 0.3226,
"home": 0.2659
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Botev Plovdiv",
"home": "Arda Kardzhali"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.023744,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0577,
"implied_prob": 0.2827,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Botev Plovdiv",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0577,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.37,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2827,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4115,
"raw_edge_display": "+12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29673590504451036,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3868,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+38.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1551096,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-04T18:14:06.484831+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Arda Kardzhali & Botev Plovdiv!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Primera Liga de Bulgaria — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofía | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 24 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 25 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | Ludogorets | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 8 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
| 11 | Slavia Sofía | 10 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
