Zamora CF vs Sabadell Statistics & Analysis

Jun 13, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
  • 1X2 Zamora CF Zamora CF ✔ Correcto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 18, 2026 · 11:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4490659

Closing Odds 3.2
AI Fair Odds
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Zamora CF win · Zamora CF 1–0 Sabadell
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando Sabadell (1X2),Más de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Más de 2,5 goles en unos 15.1 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado Modelo % Implícita cierre % Brecha (pp)
Zamora CF (1X2) 37.2 37.8 -0.6
Dibujar (1X2) 29.9 33.5 -3.7
Sabadell (1X2) 32.9 28.6 +4.3
Más de 2,5 goles 48.2 33.1 +15.1
Menos de 2,5 goles 51.8 66.9 -15.1
Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 48.2% en Más de 2,5 goles, mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 33.1%. La diferencia —unos 15.1 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea
Mercado Temprano (PRE30) Cierre (PRE1) Δ implícita (pp)
Zamora CF (1X2) 2.42 2.42 0.0
Dibujar (1X2) 2.73 2.73 0.0
Sabadell (1X2) 3.2 3.2 0.0
Más de 2,5 goles 2.81 2.81 0.0
Menos de 2,5 goles 1.39 1.39 0.0

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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        {
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          "market_prob_pct": 37.8,
          "model_prob_pct": 37.2,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
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          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
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          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
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          "tier": "low",
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
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        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Zamora CF odds lengthened \u2191 +45.5%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
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          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Zamora CF \u2014 odds lengthened by 45.5% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, Zamora CF has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 45.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Zamora CF \u2014 odds lengthened by 45.5% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
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            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Zamora CF has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 45.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (12/12) supports the current market view on Zamora CF."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 4.26,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.4 pp (at 37.2%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 4.4,
          "max_prob_pct": 37.2,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.6,
            "fair_prob_pct": 37.24,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Zamora CF",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.84,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -3.66,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.88,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 33.54,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 4.26,
            "fair_prob_pct": 32.88,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Sabadell",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.62,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "status_label": "Market Efficient",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Zamora CF \u2014 odds lengthened by 45.5% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Zamora CF (37.8%).",
          "However, Zamora CF has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +45.5%, 12/12).",
          "The model and market both lean Zamora CF, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Sabadell remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 31.25,
        "closing_odds": 3.2,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 31.25,
        "entry_odds": 3.2,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 12,
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "12/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.2,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +45.5%",
        "move_pct_abs": 45.5,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "12/12 books synchronized on Zamora CF (45.5% steam, score 99) \u2014 high-conviction multi-book repricing beats isolated ticks.",
          "Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.25 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 3.20",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 23h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Zamora CF",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.25"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.10"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.20"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,14.0 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.2,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Zamora CF \u2191 +45.5% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Zamora CF",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Zamora CF \u2191 +45.5% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "steam",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udd25",
        "signal_key": "strong_steam",
        "signal_label": "Strong steam",
        "steam_score": 99,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
        "steam_tier": "A+",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "12/12",
        "current_odds": 3.2,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +45.5%",
        "open_odds": 2.2,
        "pick_team": "Zamora CF",
        "steam_score": 99,
        "steam_team_name": "Zamora CF",
        "steam_tier": "A+"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 4.3,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 9593,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9593.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Sabadell",
      "country_code": "ES",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
      "country_name": "Spain",
      "fixture_id": 1550671,
      "goals_away": 0,
      "goals_home": 1,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Spain",
      "home_team_id": 9418,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9418.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Zamora CF",
      "league_country": "Spain",
      "league_id": 1006,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/1006.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera Federaci\u00f3n - Playoffs",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 19:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Second Half",
      "status_short": "2H",
      "venue_city": "Zamora CF",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Ruta de la Plata"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2806,
            "best_odd": 3.2,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0121,
            "ev": -0.0456,
            "implied_prob": 0.2862,
            "model_prob": 0.3292,
            "p_final": 0.2982
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4252,
            "best_odd": 2.73,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0156,
            "ev": -0.1269,
            "implied_prob": 0.3354,
            "model_prob": 0.2987,
            "p_final": 0.3198
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4457,
            "best_odd": 2.42,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0028,
            "ev": -0.0911,
            "implied_prob": 0.3784,
            "model_prob": 0.372,
            "p_final": 0.3756
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.62,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.25,
          "edge_no": -0.124,
          "edge_yes": 0.124,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2629,
          "ev_yes": 0.2263,
          "implied_no": 0.579,
          "implied_yes": 0.421,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.73,
          "best_under_odd": 1.44,
          "edge_over": 0.1308,
          "edge_under": -0.1308,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.3159,
          "ev_under": -0.2541,
          "implied_over": 0.3512,
          "implied_under": 0.6488,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.3159,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2987,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.372,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.04
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.0028,
          "ev": -0.0911,
          "implied_prob": 0.3784,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.372,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Zamora CF"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.124,
          "ev": 0.2263,
          "implied_prob": 0.421,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1308,
          "ev": 0.3159,
          "implied_prob": 0.3512,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1550671,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3159,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3292,
        "draw": 0.2987,
        "home": 0.372
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.3159,
        "implied_prob": 0.3512,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.3159,
          "implied_prob": 0.3512,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Sabadell",
        "home": "Zamora CF"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.123334,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2263,
        "implied_prob": 0.421,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.545,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1550671,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T20:58:29.444985+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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