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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Nautico Hacoaj SAT Moreno ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "51b5408ab97424b68336c4a017bc389758e5dacbb74719cd9dc3659c3b198e21",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Nautico Hacoaj or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Nautico Hacoaj"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Nautico Hacoaj",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0206,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3353,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.98
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 2.7
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.66
},
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 2.66
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 2.5
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.45
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.98,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Nautico Hacoaj Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.98,
"market_odds": 2.66,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 12.2,
"prob_edge": 2.0,
"value_pct": 6.0,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 2,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 2,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Nautico Hacoaj or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Nautico Hacoaj or SAT Moreno",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or SAT Moreno",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Nautico Hacoaj or SAT Moreno",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Nautico Hacoaj"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 9.0,
"implied_prob": 31.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "SAT Moreno Win",
"model_prob": 34.7,
"odds": 3.14
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.152,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 15.2,
"text": "+15.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.5,
"text": "-13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.152,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10286.8,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.4,
"text": "-20.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0464,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.6,
"text": "+4.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0464,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10041.76,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0862,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.6,
"text": "-8.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.334,
"max_ev": -0.067,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.7,
"text": "-6.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side_label": "Nautico Hacoaj",
"sort_key": 1783.25,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.89,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.4,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Nautico Hacoaj",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.24,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Nautico Hacoaj",
"market_prob": 33.4,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.89,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 35.54,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.64,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "SAT Moreno",
"market_prob": 31.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.21,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.21,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.87,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 47.63,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.87,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 52.37,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.54,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Nautico Hacoaj"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.89,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Nautico Hacoaj",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 33.4,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Nautico Hacoaj, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and SAT Moreno remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.89,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Nautico Hacoaj has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Nautico Hacoaj.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Draw. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Nautico Hacoaj has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on Nautico Hacoaj."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Draw above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Nautico Hacoaj has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Nautico Hacoaj."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 5.89,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Nautico Hacoaj",
"market_prob_pct": 33.4,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.54,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.64,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "SAT Moreno",
"market_prob_pct": 31.06,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on Nautico Hacoaj.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (33.4%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Nautico Hacoaj, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.0,
"entry_odds": 2.5,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Nautico Hacoaj",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Nautico Hacoaj",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 23106,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/23106.webp",
"away_team_name": "SAT Moreno",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1549930,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 23104,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/23104.webp",
"home_team_name": "Nautico Hacoaj",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 1067,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1067.webp",
"league_name": "Torneo Promocional Amateur",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4253,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.067,
"implied_prob": 0.3106,
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3262
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4105,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1717,
"implied_prob": 0.3554,
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.3313
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4352,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0862,
"implied_prob": 0.334,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3435
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.92,
"edge_no": -0.0687,
"edge_yes": 0.0687,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2037,
"ev_yes": 0.0464,
"implied_no": 0.5237,
"implied_yes": 0.4763,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.39,
"best_under_odd": 1.67,
"edge_over": 0.0821,
"edge_under": -0.0821,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.152,
"ev_under": -0.1349,
"implied_over": 0.3999,
"implied_under": 0.6001,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.152,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0095,
"ev": -0.0862,
"implied_prob": 0.334,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Nautico Hacoaj"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0687,
"ev": 0.0464,
"implied_prob": 0.4763,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0821,
"ev": 0.152,
"implied_prob": 0.3999,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549930,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.152,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "SAT Moreno",
"home": "Nautico Hacoaj"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.051285,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.152,
"implied_prob": 0.3999,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549930,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T20:53:37.318492+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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