Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Águilas Doradas Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.42
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Águilas Doradas 2–2 Deportivo Pereira
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "443c5771e30b09370eabf341d59aed54872d63e772db3046a8074d58736bf384",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.99,
"away_win_prob": 0.1927,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.462,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.26,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 5.19,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.85,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.83,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.79,
"home_win_prob": 0.5473,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.526,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.474
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : \u00c1guilas Doradas or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "\u00c1guilas Doradas"
},
"away_xg": 0.99,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.1209,
"edge_gap": 0.287,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6679,
"model_prob": 0.5471,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 19.3,
"draw": 26.0,
"home": 54.7
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.42
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.42,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "\u00c1guilas Doradas Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.5,
"market_odds": 1.42,
"model_odds": 1.83,
"overround": 5.4,
"prob_edge": -15.8,
"value_pct": -22.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 14,
"away_played": 25,
"away_score_rate": 62.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 5,
"home_played": 25,
"home_score_rate": 83.3,
"no_prob": 46.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.99,
"home_expected": 1.79,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 6.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas or Draw",
"prob": 80.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas or Deportivo Pereira",
"prob": 74.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Deportivo Pereira",
"prob": 45.3
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas or Draw",
"pick_prob": 80.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 19.3,
"draw_pct": 26.0,
"home_pct": 54.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.78,
"away_avg_scored": 0.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 52.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 52.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.78,
"under_prob": 47.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 49.2,
"implied_prob": 12.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Deportivo Pereira Win",
"model_prob": 19.3,
"odds": 7.73
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Deportivo Pereira",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 12.27,
"draw": 20.94,
"home": 66.79
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 20:59:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-18 20:29:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 66.79,
"gap_pp": -12.09,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 54.71
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.94,
"gap_pp": 5.07,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 12.27,
"gap_pp": 7.02,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 19.29
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.3,
"gap_pp": 1.3,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 52.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.7,
"gap_pp": -1.3,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 47.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.42,
"early": 1.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 66.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 66.79,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.53,
"early": 4.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.94,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 7.73,
"early": 7.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 12.27,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 12.27,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.87,
"early": 1.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.97,
"early": 1.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.7,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.7,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.0,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -4.3,
"ev": -0.2785,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-0",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.111,
"model_prob_pct": 11.1,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.0
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 6.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.79,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4578,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0391,
"edge_pp": 3.9,
"market_prob": 0.4526,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5035,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.043,
"ev": -0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.5044
},
"p_final": 0.4917,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1029,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.008,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4578,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0391,
"ev": 0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.4917
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1915,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.1,
"text": "-19.1%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1298,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.0,
"text": "+13.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1298,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 46.2,
"sort_key": 10266.82,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 53.8
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1358,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.6,
"text": "-13.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0456,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.6,
"text": "+4.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5471,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"sort_key": 5236.48,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5409,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0068,
"edge_pp": 0.7,
"market_prob": 0.5134,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.526,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5409,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.5134,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5202
},
"p_final": 0.5202,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0479,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0584,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5409,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.0068,
"ev": -0.0836,
"implied_prob": 0.4866,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"p_final": 0.4798
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0006,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.1,
"text": "-0.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.052,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.2,
"text": "-5.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.0006,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 52.6,
"sort_key": 4049.916,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 47.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 813.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
"top_prob": 11.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "2/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "2/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.1,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.06,
"hero_label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"market_prob_pct": 66.8,
"market_team": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"model_prob_pct": 54.7,
"model_team": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00c1guilas Doradas)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00c1guilas Doradas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1298,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4911,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00c1guilas Doradas at 54.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 66.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00c1guilas Doradas as the value side (54.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side \u00c1guilas Doradas \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549783 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00c1guilas Doradas).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1358,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5471,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7042253521126761,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.8"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.8
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "2/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.2222222222222222,
"evidence": {
"score": 76,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (12 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.06,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.99,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 33.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.79,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.79,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.79 \u00b7 Away xG 0.99 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +33%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00c1guilas Doradas)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00c1guilas Doradas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1298,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4911,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00c1guilas Doradas at 54.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 66.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00c1guilas Doradas as the value side (54.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side \u00c1guilas Doradas \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549783 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00c1guilas Doradas).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1358,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5471,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7042253521126761,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.8"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.8
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u00c1guilas Doradas 1.79 xG vs Deportivo Pereira 0.99 \u2192 \u00c1guilas Doradas 54.7%",
"Market: \u00c1guilas Doradas ~66.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "\u00c1guilas Doradas projects stronger on expected goals (+0.80 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.06,
"fair_prob": 54.73,
"label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"market_prob": 66.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.06,
"fair_prob": 26.0,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.0,
"fair_prob": 19.27,
"label": "Deportivo Pereira",
"market_prob": 12.27,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.27,
"fair_prob": 52.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.27,
"fair_prob": 47.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.3,
"fair_prob": 53.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.3,
"fair_prob": 46.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.73,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"market_prob_pct": 66.79,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates \u00c1guilas Doradas\u0027s win probability at 66.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 54.7%, a difference of 12.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 66.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -12.1,
"model_prob_pct": 54.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -12.1,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "\u00c1guilas Doradas \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 49,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: \u00c1guilas Doradas 1.79 xG vs Deportivo Pereira 0.99 \u2192 \u00c1guilas Doradas 54.7%",
"Market: \u00c1guilas Doradas ~66.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +12.5%"
],
"one_liner": "\u00c1guilas Doradas projects stronger on expected goals (+0.80 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.06,
"hero_label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +12.5%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about \u00c1guilas Doradas than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about \u00c1guilas Doradas than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (2/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors \u00c1guilas Doradas more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (2/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 28.7 pp (at 54.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 28.7,
"max_prob_pct": 54.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"largest_gap_pp": -12.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices \u00c1guilas Doradas higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 12.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.06,
"edge_pp": -12.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.73,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"market_prob_pct": 66.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.06,
"edge_pp": 5.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.0,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.94,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.0,
"edge_pp": 7.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 19.27,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Deportivo Pereira",
"market_prob_pct": 12.27,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.5% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers \u00c1guilas Doradas (66.8%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +12.5%, 2/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"\u00c1guilas Doradas \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 70.42,
"closing_odds": 1.42,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 70.42,
"entry_odds": 1.42,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 2,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.5,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 93h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (12.5%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.5,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.53",
"4.27",
"4.00"
],
"display": "4.80 \u2192 3.94 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 93h 56m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.94"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.0,
4.53,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "2/9",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.5%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-pereira",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo Pereira",
"away_team_id": 1462,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1462.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Pereira",
"away_team_public_id": "01R8wWdolhwLhY",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-pereira",
"country_code": "CO",
"country_display_name": "Colombia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/co.svg",
"country_id": 34,
"country_name": "Colombia",
"fixture_id": 1549783,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Colombia",
"home_team_display_name": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"home_team_id": 1144,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1144.webp",
"home_team_name": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"home_team_name_canonical": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"home_team_public_id": "2xZjzy4fwV0Co3",
"home_team_slug": "rionegro-aguilas",
"ht.home_team_slug": "rionegro-aguilas",
"league_country": "Colombia",
"league_country_display": "Colombia",
"league_display_name": "Primera A de Colombia",
"league_id": 239,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/239.webp",
"league_name": "Primera A de Colombia",
"league_public_id": "1Lhk6g0OB2PKf8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-18 21:00:00",
"public_id": "3dlnTee453Pbkx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Rionegro",
"venue_name": "Estadio Alberto Grisales"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1789,
"best_odd": 7.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0126,
"ev": 0.0456,
"implied_prob": 0.1227,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1227,
"draw": 0.2094,
"home": 0.6679
},
"model_prob": 0.1929,
"p_final": 0.1353
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1848,
"best_odd": 4.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0091,
"implied_prob": 0.2094,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1227,
"draw": 0.2094,
"home": 0.6679
},
"model_prob": 0.26,
"p_final": 0.2187
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4912,
"best_odd": 1.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0594,
"ev": -0.1358,
"implied_prob": 0.6679,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1227,
"draw": 0.2094,
"home": 0.6679
},
"model_prob": 0.5471,
"p_final": 0.6086
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 7.73,
"edge": 0.0635,
"ev": 0.4911,
"implied_prob": 0.1294,
"model_prob": 0.1929
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.53,
"edge": 0.0393,
"ev": 0.178,
"implied_prob": 0.2208,
"model_prob": 0.26
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.42,
"edge": -0.1572,
"ev": -0.2232,
"implied_prob": 0.7042,
"model_prob": 0.5471
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5035,
"alpha_yes": 0.4578,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.083,
"edge_yes": 0.083,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1915,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.145,
"ev_yes": 0.1298,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": 0.008,
"implied_no": 0.545,
"implied_yes": 0.455,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5035,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.043,
"ev": -0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.5044
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4578,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0391,
"ev": 0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.4917
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5044,
"p_final_yes": 0.4917,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5409,
"alpha_under": 0.5409,
"best_over_odd": 1.9,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.91,
"edge_over": 0.0127,
"edge_under": -0.0127,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0006,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0584,
"ev_under": -0.052,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0836,
"implied_over": 0.5133,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5134,
"implied_under": 0.4867,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4866,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5409,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.5134,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5202
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5409,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.0068,
"ev": -0.0836,
"implied_prob": 0.4866,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"p_final": 0.4798
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5202,
"p_final_under": 0.4798,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.78,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1298,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4911,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1298,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00c1guilas Doradas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1298,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4911,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 49,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates \u00c1guilas Doradas at 54.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 66.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies \u00c1guilas Doradas as the value side (54.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "\u00c1guilas Doradas",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side \u00c1guilas Doradas \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +49% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1549783 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.0% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "49 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (\u00c1guilas Doradas).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +49% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1358,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5471,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7042253521126761,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 32.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.8"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.8
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.538,
"draw_prob": 0.26,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5471,
"over_prob": 0.526,
"total_xg": 2.78,
"under_prob": 0.474,
"xg_diff": 0.8
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0456,
"implied_prob": 0.1227,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.1929,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Deportivo Pereira",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0594,
"ev": -0.1358,
"implied_prob": 0.6679,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.5471,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "\u00c1guilas Doradas"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4578,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0391,
"market_prob": 0.4526,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5035,
"best_odd": 1.695,
"edge": -0.043,
"ev": -0.145,
"implied_prob": 0.5474,
"model_prob": 0.462,
"p_final": 0.5044
},
"p_final": 0.4917,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.008,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4578,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0391,
"ev": 0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.4526,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"p_final": 0.4917
}
},
"edge": 0.083,
"ev": 0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"model_prob": 0.538,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5409,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0068,
"market_prob": 0.5134,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.526,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5409,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0068,
"ev": -0.0584,
"implied_prob": 0.5134,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"p_final": 0.5202
},
"p_final": 0.5202,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0584,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5409,
"best_odd": 1.91,
"edge": -0.0068,
"ev": -0.0836,
"implied_prob": 0.4866,
"model_prob": 0.474,
"p_final": 0.4798
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0127,
"ev": -0.0006,
"implied_prob": 0.5133,
"model_prob": 0.526,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1549783,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1298,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1929,
"draw": 0.26,
"home": 0.5471
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Pereira",
"home": "\u00c1guilas Doradas"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.069832,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.455,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.538,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1358,
"consensus_ev_display": "-13.6%",
"consensus_odds": 1.42,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6679,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5471,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7042253521126761,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2231,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1549783,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-18T20:59:06.535748+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Águilas Doradas & Deportivo Pereira!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Primera A de Colombia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | América de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 31 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 |
| 8 | La Equidad | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 |
| 13 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 17 |
| 18 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 17 |
| 19 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 35 | 15 | +20 | 40 |
| 2 | Once Caldas | 19 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 33 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 19 | 31 | 23 | +8 | 26 |
| 4 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 35 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 29 |
| 6 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 34 |
| 7 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 27 | 17 | +10 | 31 |
| 8 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | América de Cali | 19 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 33 |
| 12 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 20 | 16 | +4 | 27 |
| 15 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 18 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
| 20 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América de Cali | 19 | 9.1 | 4.4 | +4.7 | 33 |
| 2 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 8.9 | 4.5 | +4.4 | 26 |
| 3 | Millonarios | 19 | 7.8 | 4.3 | +3.5 | 26 |
| 4 | Atlético Nacional | 19 | 6.6 | 3.5 | +3.1 | 40 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 6.8 | 4.2 | +2.6 | 31 |
| 6 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 5.4 | 3.1 | +2.3 | 27 |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 19 | 4.2 | 3.4 | +0.8 | 33 |
| 8 | Boyacá Chicó | 19 | 4.8 | 5.0 | -0.2 | 17 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 19 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 26 |
| 10 | La Equidad | 19 | 6.2 | 6.5 | -0.3 | 28 |
| 11 | Junior de Barranquilla | 19 | 3.6 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 35 |
| 12 | Independiente Santa Fe | 19 | 4.0 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 29 |
| 13 | Alianza Petrolera | 19 | 6.0 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 17 |
| 14 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 19 | 5.2 | 6.6 | -1.4 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 19 | 3.4 | 5.0 | -1.6 | 23 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 4.3 | 6.0 | -1.7 | 10 |
| 17 | Fortaleza CEIF | 19 | 3.4 | 5.4 | -2.0 | 22 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 4.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | 34 |
| 19 | Llaneros FC | 19 | 3.1 | 6.5 | -3.4 | 22 |
| 20 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 19 | 3.1 | 8.2 | -5.1 | 18 |
