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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1, 3-0 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.28
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
HNK Hajduk Split win · HNK Hajduk Split 1–0 Slaven Belupo
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : HNK Hajduk Split",
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"percent_away": "0%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
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"winner_name": "HNK Hajduk Split"
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"away_xg": 0.92,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
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"home_score_rate": 88.0,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "No",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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"correct_score": {
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{
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{
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],
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{
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},
{
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}
],
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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}
},
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:59:01",
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"has_data": true,
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},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 12.1,
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.3,
"text": "-20.3%"
},
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"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 40.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
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{
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"edge": 0.0173,
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"market_prob": 0.4242,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4976,
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"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0441,
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},
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"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.5,
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5474,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0557,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.6,
"text": "+5.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0965,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.7,
"text": "-9.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0557,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 10050.13,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1075,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.7334,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0066,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.7,
"text": "-0.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6665,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"sort_key": 1798.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 812.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 10.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.67,
"hero_label": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"market_prob_pct": 73.3,
"market_team": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"model_prob_pct": 66.7,
"model_team": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (HNK Hajduk Split)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (HNK Hajduk Split)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4076,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates HNK Hajduk Split at 66.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 73.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies HNK Hajduk Split as the value side (66.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (HNK Hajduk Split).",
"Decision strength: 8.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1075,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7334,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6665,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.78125,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 100,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (57%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 78,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.67,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 0.92,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.12,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.12,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.12 \u00b7 Away xG 0.92 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +57%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (HNK Hajduk Split).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (HNK Hajduk Split)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (HNK Hajduk Split)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4076,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates HNK Hajduk Split at 66.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 73.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies HNK Hajduk Split as the value side (66.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (HNK Hajduk Split).",
"Decision strength: 8.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1075,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7334,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6665,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.78125,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: HNK Hajduk Split 2.12 xG vs Slaven Belupo 0.92 \u2192 HNK Hajduk Split 66.7%",
"Market: HNK Hajduk Split ~73.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +15.0%"
],
"one_liner": "HNK Hajduk Split projects stronger on expected goals (+1.20 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob": 66.67,
"label": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"market_prob": 73.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.81,
"fair_prob": 20.15,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 15.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.87,
"fair_prob": 13.19,
"label": "Slaven Belupo",
"market_prob": 11.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.1,
"fair_prob": 58.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 70.7,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.1,
"fair_prob": 41.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 29.3,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.42,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.52,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.42,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.48,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 66.67,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"market_prob_pct": 73.34,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates HNK Hajduk Split\u0027s win probability at 73.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 66.7%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 73.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -6.6,
"model_prob_pct": 66.7,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-6.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -6.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 78,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "HNK Hajduk Split \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 81,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 66,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: HNK Hajduk Split 2.12 xG vs Slaven Belupo 0.92 \u2192 HNK Hajduk Split 66.7%",
"Market: HNK Hajduk Split ~73.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +15.0%"
],
"one_liner": "HNK Hajduk Split projects stronger on expected goals (+1.20 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -6.67,
"hero_label": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +15.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on HNK Hajduk Split. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on HNK Hajduk Split. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices HNK Hajduk Split above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 46.5 pp (at 66.7%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 46.5,
"max_prob_pct": 66.7,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"largest_gap_pp": -6.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices HNK Hajduk Split higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -6.67,
"edge_pp": -6.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 66.67,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"market_prob_pct": 73.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.81,
"edge_pp": 4.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 20.15,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 15.34,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.87,
"edge_pp": 1.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 13.19,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Slaven Belupo",
"market_prob_pct": 11.32,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers HNK Hajduk Split (73.3%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +15.0%, 5/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"HNK Hajduk Split \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 78.12,
"closing_odds": 1.28,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 78.12,
"entry_odds": 1.28,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Draw (15.0%, 5/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"6.12",
"5.56",
"5.00"
],
"display": "6.12 \u2192 4.66 \u2192 5.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 30m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.12"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.66"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
6.12,
5.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,5.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "6.12"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/9 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 5.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 48,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "nk-slaven-belupo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Slaven Belupo",
"away_team_id": 1018,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1018.webp",
"away_team_name": "Slaven Belupo",
"away_team_public_id": "4wGT5ZrKzStw9D",
"away_team_slug": "nk-slaven-belupo",
"country_code": "HR",
"country_display_name": "Croatia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/hr.svg",
"country_id": 39,
"country_name": "Croatia",
"fixture_id": 1548528,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Croatia",
"home_team_display_name": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"home_team_id": 608,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/608.webp",
"home_team_name": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"home_team_public_id": "4bvOWkbtvstyCh",
"home_team_slug": "hnk-hajduk-split",
"ht.home_team_slug": "hnk-hajduk-split",
"league_country": "Croatia",
"league_country_display": "Croatia",
"league_display_name": "HNL de Croacia",
"league_id": 210,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/210.webp",
"league_name": "HNL de Croacia",
"league_public_id": "2P2flO0qVah0S2",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 18:00:00",
"public_id": "05JsJSe4O1qIFs",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Split",
"venue_name": "Stadion Poljud"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1944,
"best_odd": 8.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": -0.0312,
"implied_prob": 0.1132,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1132,
"draw": 0.1534,
"home": 0.7334
},
"model_prob": 0.1319,
"p_final": 0.1169
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1855,
"best_odd": 6.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0089,
"ev": -0.0066,
"implied_prob": 0.1534,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1132,
"draw": 0.1534,
"home": 0.7334
},
"model_prob": 0.2016,
"p_final": 0.1623
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5398,
"best_odd": 1.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0361,
"ev": -0.1075,
"implied_prob": 0.7334,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1132,
"draw": 0.1534,
"home": 0.7334
},
"model_prob": 0.6665,
"p_final": 0.6973
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 8.29,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": 0.0934,
"implied_prob": 0.1206,
"model_prob": 0.1319
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 6.12,
"edge": 0.0382,
"ev": 0.2336,
"implied_prob": 0.1634,
"model_prob": 0.2016
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.28,
"edge": -0.1147,
"ev": -0.1468,
"implied_prob": 0.7812,
"model_prob": 0.6665
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.4976,
"alpha_yes": 0.5474,
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0342,
"edge_yes": -0.0342,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0557,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0441,
"ev_yes": -0.0965,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.112,
"implied_no": 0.4248,
"implied_yes": 0.5752,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4976,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.4242,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4415
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5474,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5758,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5568
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4415,
"p_final_yes": 0.5568,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4725,
"alpha_under": 0.2148,
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.3,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.14,
"edge_over": -0.121,
"edge_under": 0.121,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.203,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1551,
"ev_under": 0.4076,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0011,
"implied_over": 0.707,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7072,
"implied_under": 0.293,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2928,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4725,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0573,
"ev": -0.1551,
"implied_prob": 0.7072,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.6499
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": 0.0011,
"implied_prob": 0.2928,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.3188
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6499,
"p_final_under": 0.3188,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.04,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4076,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4076,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": true,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (HNK Hajduk Split)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4076,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4076,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 81,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates HNK Hajduk Split at 66.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 73.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies HNK Hajduk Split as the value side (66.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 6.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "HNK Hajduk Split",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +40.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +40.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "78 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "81 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+40.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (HNK Hajduk Split).",
"Decision strength: 8.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 78,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1075,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7334,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6665,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.78125,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 57.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 57%",
"Clear xG separation gap=1.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 1.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2016,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6665,
"over_prob": 0.586,
"total_xg": 3.04,
"under_prob": 0.414,
"xg_diff": 1.2
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.28,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0361,
"ev": -0.1075,
"implied_prob": 0.7334,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.6665,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "HNK Hajduk Split"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4976,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.165,
"edge": 0.0173,
"market_prob": 0.4242,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.4976,
"best_odd": 2.165,
"edge": 0.0173,
"ev": -0.0441,
"implied_prob": 0.4242,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4415
},
"p_final": 0.4415,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0441,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5474,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5758,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5568
}
},
"edge": 0.0342,
"ev": 0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.14,
"edge": 0.026,
"market_prob": 0.2928,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.414,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4725,
"best_odd": 1.3,
"edge": -0.0573,
"ev": -0.1551,
"implied_prob": 0.7072,
"model_prob": 0.586,
"p_final": 0.6499
},
"p_final": 0.3188,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0011,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2148,
"best_odd": 3.14,
"edge": 0.026,
"ev": 0.0011,
"implied_prob": 0.2928,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"p_final": 0.3188
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.121,
"ev": 0.4076,
"implied_prob": 0.293,
"model_prob": 0.414,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1548528,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4076,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1319,
"draw": 0.2016,
"home": 0.6665
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0557,
"implied_prob": 0.4248,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Slaven Belupo",
"home": "HNK Hajduk Split"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.168746,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4076,
"implied_prob": 0.293,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.414,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1075,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.28,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.7334,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6665,
"raw_edge_display": "-6.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -6.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.78125,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1469,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1548528,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T19:37:33.068918+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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HNL de Croacia — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Osijek | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Varazdin | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 6 | Lokomotiva Zagreb | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Slaven Belupo | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Rudeš | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Osijek | 7 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 6 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 13 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 6 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | Varazdin | 6 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 13 |
| 5 | Istra 1961 | 6 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | HNK Rijeka | 6 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Lokomotiva Zagreb | 7 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Rudeš | 6 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 3 |
| 9 | Slaven Belupo | 6 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 6 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 1 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 6 | 8.3 | 2.1 | +6.2 | 13 |
| 2 | Varazdin | 6 | 9.0 | 4.5 | +4.5 | 13 |
| 3 | Osijek | 7 | 9.0 | 4.9 | +4.1 | 15 |
| 4 | HNK Hajduk Split | 6 | 8.0 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 13 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 6 | 5.4 | 3.4 | +2.0 | 11 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 6 | 8.2 | 6.7 | +1.5 | 6 |
| 7 | HNK Gorica | 6 | 5.5 | 7.9 | -2.4 | 1 |
| 8 | Lokomotiva Zagreb | 7 | 6.4 | 10.8 | -4.4 | 7 |
| 9 | Slaven Belupo | 6 | 4.9 | 12.2 | -7.3 | 6 |
| 10 | Rudeš | 6 | 3.3 | 11.4 | -8.1 | 3 |
