Uberaba vs CAP Statistics & Analysis

Jun 17, 2026 - 22:30
1 1.42
1 1.18
xG Accuracy: 85%
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí ✔ Correcto
  • 1X2 Uberaba Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correcto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1660491

Closing Odds 3.84
AI Fair Odds
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · Uberaba 1–1 CAP
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando CAP (1X2),Más de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Más de 2,5 goles en unos 11.2 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado Modelo % Implícita cierre % Brecha (pp)
Uberaba (1X2) 41.0 46.1 -5.1
Dibujar (1X2) 29.4 30.8 -1.4
CAP (1X2) 29.6 23.2 +6.5
Más de 2,5 goles 48.2 37.0 +11.2
Menos de 2,5 goles 51.8 63.0 -11.2
Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 48.2% en Más de 2,5 goles, mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 37.0%. La diferencia —unos 11.2 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea
Mercado Temprano (PRE30) Cierre (PRE1) Δ implícita (pp)
Uberaba (1X2) 1.93 1.93 0.0
Dibujar (1X2) 2.89 2.89 0.0
CAP (1X2) 3.84 3.84 0.0
Más de 2,5 goles 2.47 2.47 0.0
Menos de 2,5 goles 1.45 1.45 0.0

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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        {
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          "tier": "low",
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
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        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
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            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
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          "note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CAP.",
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            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CAP."
          ],
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        "market_narrative": {
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            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on CAP.",
            "Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus."
          ],
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        },
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        "model_validation": {
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        "outcome_separation": {
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          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
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            "is_hero": false,
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            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.37,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 30.77,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.53,
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            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "CAP",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.16,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CAP.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Uberaba (46.1%).",
          "Both lean Uberaba, but the market prices them higher (46.1% vs model 40.9%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 26.04,
        "closing_odds": 3.84,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 26.04,
        "entry_odds": 3.84,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
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            "id": "forecast_generated",
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            "id": "market_detected",
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          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "8/11",
        "current_odds": 1.91,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 1.91,
        "pick_team": "Uberaba",
        "steam_score": 22,
        "steam_team_name": "Uberaba",
        "steam_tier": "C"
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      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 6.5,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
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      "show": true
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    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 7824,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7824.webp",
      "away_team_name": "CAP",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1547682,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 18795,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/18795.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Uberaba",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 619,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/619.webp",
      "league_name": "Campeonato Mineiro Serie B",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-17 22:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
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          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 3.84,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0176,
            "ev": -0.0432,
            "implied_prob": 0.2316,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.2492
          },
          "draw": {
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            "best_odd": 2.89,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0061,
            "ev": -0.1283,
            "implied_prob": 0.3077,
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            "p_final": 0.3016
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          "home": {
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            "best_odd": 1.93,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0284,
            "ev": -0.1655,
            "implied_prob": 0.4607,
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            "p_final": 0.4324
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        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 2.15,
          "edge_no": -0.1048,
          "edge_yes": 0.1048,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2427,
          "ev_yes": 0.1632,
          "implied_no": 0.5638,
          "implied_yes": 0.4362,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 2.5,
          "best_under_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_over": 0.1053,
          "edge_under": -0.1053,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.205,
          "ev_under": -0.223,
          "implied_over": 0.3767,
          "implied_under": 0.6233,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.205,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
          "draw_prob": 0.2939,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.24
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": -0.0284,
          "ev": -0.1655,
          "implied_prob": 0.4607,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.4096,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Uberaba"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1048,
          "ev": 0.1632,
          "implied_prob": 0.4362,
          "model_prob": 0.541,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1053,
          "ev": 0.205,
          "implied_prob": 0.3767,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1547682,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.205,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "home": 0.4096
      },
      "reason_codes": [
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "not_dominant": true,
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
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        "home": "Uberaba"
      },
      "top_pick": {
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        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.541,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1547682,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T22:29:12.868073+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Campeonato Mineiro Serie B Campeonato Mineiro Serie BClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Uberaba 10 7 2 1 23
2 Valeriodoce 10 5 5 0 20
3 Democrata SL 10 5 2 3 17
4 BOA 10 5 2 3 17
5 Aymorés 10 4 4 2 16
6 Villa Nova 10 4 2 4 14
7 CAP 10 3 3 4 12
8 Mamoré 10 3 3 4 12
9 Guarani MG 10 3 3 4 12
10 Coimbra 10 2 4 4 10
11 Caldense 10 1 3 6 6
12 Ipatinga 10 1 1 8 4
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Democrata SL 10 19 10 +9 17
2 Uberaba 10 17 9 +8 23
3 Aymorés 10 17 9 +8 16
4 Villa Nova 10 17 12 +5 14
5 BOA 10 12 9 +3 17
6 Coimbra 10 12 12 0 10
7 Guarani MG 10 12 14 -2 12
8 Valeriodoce 10 9 4 +5 20
9 CAP 10 9 9 0 12
10 Mamoré 10 8 9 -1 12
11 Caldense 10 6 14 -8 6
12 Ipatinga 10 6 33 -27 4