Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Kormákur / Hvöt Fjölnir ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.23
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Fjölnir win · Kormákur / Hvöt 1–2 Fjölnir
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "90f6cfa4a07155ef8fdf0742bb3cfa0c6be381c6faf07612027fd4683934db69",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0209,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3769,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.4
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.4,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.65,
"market_odds": 2.4,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 10.6,
"prob_edge": -6.1,
"value_pct": -14.6,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 1,
"away_played": 21,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 21,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t or Fj\u00f6lnir",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Fj\u00f6lnir",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t or Fj\u00f6lnir",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 25.2,
"implied_prob": 23.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.23
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 40.93,
"draw": 21.38,
"home": 37.69
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:56:54",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 13:32:57",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.69,
"gap_pp": -2.09,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.38,
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.93,
"gap_pp": -6.2,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.4,
"early": 2.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.69,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.23,
"early": 4.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.38,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.21,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.93,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 4.9,
"ev": 0.638,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 13.0,
"market_prob": 0.0769,
"market_prob_pct": 7.7,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.33,
"edge": 0.0242,
"edge_pp": 2.4,
"market_prob": 0.2156,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1352,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1152,
"implied_prob": 0.7844,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7435
},
"p_final": 0.2398,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 30.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.2429,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0382,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.2156,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2398
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4216,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -42.2,
"text": "-42.2%"
},
"ev_under": 1.3828,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 138.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.3828,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 11394.52,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.46,
"edge": 0.0199,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.2064,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.46,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": 0.0093,
"implied_prob": 0.2064,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2263
},
"p_final": 0.2263,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0293,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0093,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1552,
"best_odd": 1.16,
"edge": -0.0386,
"ev": -0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.7936,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.755
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 1.093,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 109.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3678,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -36.8,
"text": "-36.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 1.093,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10983.7,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1174,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -11.7,
"text": "-11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.034,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.4,
"text": "-3.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"sort_key": 1791.5,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"alert_team": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.27,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.7,
"market_team": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013828,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013828,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1174,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8571428571428571,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.6,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.27,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.27,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"steam_team": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013828,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013828,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1174,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t 1.31 xG vs Fj\u00f6lnir 1.29 \u2192 Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t 35.6%",
"Market: Fj\u00f6lnir ~37.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Fj\u00f6lnir \u2193 -6.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t, but sharp money moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -2.05,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"market_prob": 37.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.27,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.23,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"market_prob": 40.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -30.01,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 78.21,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 30.01,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 21.79,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -24.88,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 79.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 24.88,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 20.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.38,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Fj\u00f6lnir"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 21.4%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.27,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -2.1,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -2.1,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 34,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t 1.31 xG vs Fj\u00f6lnir 1.29 \u2192 Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t 35.6%",
"Market: Fj\u00f6lnir ~37.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Fj\u00f6lnir \u2193 -6.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t, but sharp money moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.27,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Fj\u00f6lnir odds shortened \u2193 -6.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Fj\u00f6lnir, with odds shortening by 6.4%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Buying interest on Fj\u00f6lnir \u2014 odds shortened by 6.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Fj\u00f6lnir, with odds shortening by 6.4%.",
"Buying interest on Fj\u00f6lnir \u2014 odds shortened by 6.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Fj\u00f6lnir has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.4%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (6/7) supports the current market view on Fj\u00f6lnir."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.27,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.3,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -2.05,
"edge_pp": -2.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"market_prob_pct": 37.69,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.27,
"edge_pp": 8.27,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.38,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.23,
"edge_pp": -6.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"market_prob_pct": 40.93,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Fj\u00f6lnir \u2014 odds shortened by 6.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Fj\u00f6lnir (37.7%).",
"However, Fj\u00f6lnir has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -6.4%, 6/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t, Market \u2192 Fj\u00f6lnir, Recent sharp money \u2192 Fj\u00f6lnir.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.64,
"closing_odds": 4.23,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.64,
"entry_odds": 4.23,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Fj\u00f6lnir (6.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.35",
"2.28",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.35 \u2192 2.20 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 24h 58m",
"pick_team": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.21,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,16.8 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/7 sportsbooks on Fj\u00f6lnir",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Market moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/7",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"steam_score": 53,
"steam_team_name": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "fjolnir",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"away_team_id": 273,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/273.webp",
"away_team_name": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"away_team_public_id": "4OtbAxVohML7zO",
"away_team_slug": "fjolnir",
"country_code": "IS",
"country_display_name": "Iceland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/is.svg",
"country_id": 72,
"country_name": "Iceland",
"fixture_id": 1543483,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Iceland",
"home_team_display_name": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"home_team_id": 6093,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6093.webp",
"home_team_name": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"home_team_public_id": "53BvcCItFFYKuZ",
"home_team_slug": "kormakur-hvot",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kormakur-hvot",
"league_country": "Iceland",
"league_country_display": "Iceland",
"league_display_name": "2. Deild",
"league_id": 166,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/166.webp",
"league_name": "2. Deild",
"league_public_id": "1R6KUG6yOOkXz3",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 14:00:00",
"public_id": "20wItIZvVHVpc0",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4081,
"best_odd": 2.21,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0253,
"ev": -0.1514,
"implied_prob": 0.4093,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4093,
"draw": 0.2138,
"home": 0.3769
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.384
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1751,
"best_odd": 4.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.034,
"implied_prob": 0.2138,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4093,
"draw": 0.2138,
"home": 0.3769
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2284
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4359,
"best_odd": 2.4,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.1174,
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4093,
"draw": 0.2138,
"home": 0.3769
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.3678
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.21,
"edge": -0.1052,
"ev": -0.2325,
"implied_prob": 0.4525,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.23,
"edge": 0.0604,
"ev": 0.2554,
"implied_prob": 0.2364,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.4,
"edge": -0.0607,
"ev": -0.1458,
"implied_prob": 0.4167,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1552,
"best_no_odd": 4.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.16,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2488,
"edge_yes": -0.2488,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 1.093,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0093,
"ev_yes": -0.3678,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1242,
"implied_no": 0.2062,
"implied_yes": 0.7938,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.46,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": 0.0093,
"implied_prob": 0.2064,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2263
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1552,
"best_odd": 1.16,
"edge": -0.0386,
"ev": -0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.7936,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.755
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.2263,
"p_final_yes": 0.755,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1352,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.2,
"best_under_odd": 4.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.19,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.33,
"edge_over": -0.3001,
"edge_under": 0.3001,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4216,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1152,
"ev_under": 1.3828,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0382,
"implied_over": 0.7821,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7844,
"implied_under": 0.2179,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2156,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1352,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1152,
"implied_prob": 0.7844,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7435
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.2156,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2398
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7435,
"p_final_under": 0.2398,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.3828,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.3828,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.3828,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.6
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 8.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.013828,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.013828,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.6,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 34,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.4% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.4% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "34 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Fj\u00f6lnir, but the model still strongly favours Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1174,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.1174,
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.46,
"edge": 0.0199,
"market_prob": 0.2064,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.46,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": 0.0093,
"implied_prob": 0.2064,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2263
},
"p_final": 0.2263,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0093,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1552,
"best_odd": 1.16,
"edge": -0.0386,
"ev": -0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.7936,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.755
}
},
"edge": 0.2488,
"ev": 1.093,
"implied_prob": 0.2062,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.33,
"edge": 0.0242,
"market_prob": 0.2156,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1352,
"best_odd": 1.19,
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1152,
"implied_prob": 0.7844,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7435
},
"p_final": 0.2398,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0382,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"edge": 0.0242,
"ev": 0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.2156,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2398
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.3001,
"ev": 1.3828,
"implied_prob": 0.2179,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1543483,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.3828,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.093,
"implied_prob": 0.2062,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.093,
"implied_prob": 0.2062,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Fj\u00f6lnir",
"home": "Korm\u00e1kur / Hv\u00f6t"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.501403,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.3828,
"implied_prob": 0.2179,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1174,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.4,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3769,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-2.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4166666666666667,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1458,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1543483,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T13:56:55.317299+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Kormákur / Hvöt & Fjölnir!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
2. Deild — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haukar | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 47 |
| 2 | Selfoss | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 3 | Kári | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 42 |
| 4 | Dalvík/Reynir | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 5 | Víkingur Ólafsvík | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 6 | Fjölnir | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 7 | Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 8 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 9 | Magni | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 10 | Thróttur Vogar | 22 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 23 |
| 11 | KFG | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 22 |
| 12 | Hvítir Riddarar | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kári | 22 | 56 | 29 | +27 | 42 |
| 2 | Haukar | 22 | 55 | 32 | +23 | 47 |
| 3 | Selfoss | 22 | 55 | 36 | +19 | 45 |
| 4 | Fjarðabyggð/Leiknir | 22 | 51 | 45 | +6 | 29 |
| 5 | Fjölnir | 22 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 30 |
| 6 | Kormákur / Hvöt | 22 | 42 | 38 | +4 | 27 |
| 7 | KFG | 22 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 22 |
| 8 | Dalvík/Reynir | 22 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 31 |
| 9 | Magni | 22 | 35 | 54 | -19 | 25 |
| 10 | Víkingur Ólafsvík | 22 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 31 |
| 11 | Thróttur Vogar | 22 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 23 |
| 12 | Hvítir Riddarar | 22 | 28 | 54 | -26 | 17 |
