Hørsholm-Usserød vs Næsby Statistics & Analysis

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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.613,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
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      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.68,
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      "over_25_prob": 0.572,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.428
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or N\u00e6sby",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "N\u00e6sby"
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    "away_xg": 1.4,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
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        "confidence": "low",
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        "edge": 0.12,
        "edge_gap": 0.0786,
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        "market_prob": 0.2834,
        "model_prob": 0.4034,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 32.5,
          "draw": 27.2,
          "home": 40.3
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 3.19
        }
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 3.53,
        "market_odds": 3.19,
        "model_odds": 2.48,
        "overround": 10.6,
        "prob_edge": 9.0,
        "value_pct": 28.6,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 5,
        "away_failed_to_score": 5,
        "away_played": 31,
        "away_score_rate": 75.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 10,
        "home_played": 31,
        "home_score_rate": 79.4,
        "no_prob": 38.7,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 61.3,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 61.3
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.4,
        "home_expected": 1.58,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
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            "prob": 11.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
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            "away": 2,
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            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
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          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d or Draw",
            "prob": 67.6
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d or N\u00e6sby",
            "prob": 72.8
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          {
            "key": "X2",
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        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
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        "lean_label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d"
      },
      "over_under": {
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "implied_prob": 31.3,
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        "label": "Home",
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        "odds": 3.19
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "N\u00e6sby",
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      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 28.34,
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 21.17,
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          "closing": 4.27,
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        "label": "1-1",
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          "raw_pct": -22.2,
          "text": "-22.2%"
        },
        "ev_under": 0.4124,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 41.2,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "over_prob": 57.2,
        "sort_key": 10521.16,
        "tier": "best",
        "under_prob": 42.8,
        "value_side": "under"
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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          "raw_pct": 23.8,
          "text": "+23.8%"
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          "text": "-16.0%"
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        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 61.3
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        "model_prob": 0.4034,
        "side_label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
        "sort_key": 2199.848,
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    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "12/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "12/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +6.7%",
        "alert_team": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 18.1,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -18.07,
        "hero_label": "N\u00e6sby",
        "market_prob_pct": 28.3,
        "market_team": "N\u00e6sby",
        "model_prob_pct": 40.4,
        "model_team": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 53,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 12.02,
          "fair_prob": 40.36,
          "label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
          "market_prob": 28.34,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 6.04,
          "fair_prob": 27.21,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 21.17,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -18.07,
          "fair_prob": 32.43,
          "label": "N\u00e6sby",
          "market_prob": 50.5,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -12.77,
          "fair_prob": 57.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 69.97,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 12.77,
          "fair_prob": 42.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 30.03,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -7.74,
          "fair_prob": 61.3,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 69.04,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 7.74,
          "fair_prob": 38.7,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 30.96,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -18.07,
        "fair_prob_pct": 32.43,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "N\u00e6sby",
        "market_prob_pct": 50.5,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 18.07,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 28.3,
          "model_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and N\u00e6sby remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -18.07,
        "hero_label": "N\u00e6sby",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d odds lengthened \u2191 +6.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about N\u00e6sby than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "Drift away from H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about N\u00e6sby than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors N\u00e6sby more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (12/13) supports the current market view on H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 18.07,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.9 pp (at 40.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 7.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 40.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 12.02,
            "fair_prob_pct": 40.36,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.34,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 6.04,
            "fair_prob_pct": 27.21,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 21.17,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -18.07,
            "fair_prob_pct": 32.43,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "N\u00e6sby",
            "market_prob_pct": 50.5,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d \u2014 odds lengthened by 6.7% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers N\u00e6sby (28.3%).",
          "However, H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +6.7%, 12/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d, Market \u2192 N\u00e6sby, Recent sharp money \u2192 H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 55.87,
        "closing_odds": 1.79,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 55.87,
        "entry_odds": 1.79,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 12,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "12/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 3.2,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 6.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Betfair led repricing on H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d (6.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.60 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 3.20",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 57m",
          "pick_team": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.60"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.80"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "3.20"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.9 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.0,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 12/13 sportsbooks on H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "H\u00f8rsholm-Usser\u00f8d",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a1",
        "signal_key": "sharp_led",
        "signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
        "steam_score": 53,
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T13:24:11.963683+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}