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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 ABC ABC ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.66
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
ABC win · ABC 1–0 Maguary PE
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.2875,
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"home_win_prob": 0.415,
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "ABC"
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"edge": -0.1196,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
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"market_odds": 1.66,
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"prob_edge": -18.7,
"value_pct": -31.1,
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"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 9,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
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"home_played": 9,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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"source": "xG"
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"options": [
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"key": "1X",
"label": "ABC or Draw",
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.2
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{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Maguary PE",
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"pick_key": "1X",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
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{
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{
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"model_pct": 28.74
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{
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"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 58.62,
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"movement": [
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{
"closing": 3.15,
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{
"closing": 2.21,
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{
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"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
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},
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},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
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"raw_pct": -22.7,
"text": "-22.7%"
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"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": 19.9,
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"featured": true,
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"text": "+7.0%"
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.5,
"text": "-14.5%"
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"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"sort_key": 10063.0,
"tier": "best",
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"value_side": "over"
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.2104,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.0,
"text": "-21.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"max_ev": -0.0281,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.8,
"text": "-2.8%"
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"model_prob": 0.415,
"side_label": "ABC",
"sort_key": 1792.975,
"tier": "bad_ev"
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{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.96,
"hero_label": "ABC",
"market_prob_pct": 53.5,
"market_team": "ABC",
"model_prob_pct": 41.5,
"model_team": "ABC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.96,
"fair_prob": 41.5,
"label": "ABC",
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"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.58,
"fair_prob": 29.75,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.17,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.38,
"fair_prob": 28.75,
"label": "Maguary PE",
"market_prob": 18.37,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.95,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.25,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
"edge_pp": -5.95,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.75,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.38,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.12,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.38,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.88,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.5,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "ABC",
"market_prob_pct": 53.46,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "ABC"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "ABC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 53.5,
"model_prob_pct": 41.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean ABC, but the market prices them higher (53.5% vs model 41.5%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.96,
"hero_label": "ABC",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that ABC is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about ABC than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about ABC than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about ABC than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that ABC is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors ABC more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on ABC (pricing gap 12.0 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 11.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.8 pp (at 41.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.8,
"max_prob_pct": 41.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.5,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "ABC",
"market_prob_pct": 53.46,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.58,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.75,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.17,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.75,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Maguary PE",
"market_prob_pct": 18.37,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about ABC than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers ABC (53.5%).",
"Both lean ABC, but the market prices them higher (53.5% vs model 41.5%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 60.24,
"closing_odds": 1.66,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 60.24,
"entry_odds": 1.66,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "10/12",
"current_odds": 1.65,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.65,
"pick_team": "ABC",
"steam_score": 25,
"steam_team_name": "ABC",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 20781,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/20781.webp",
"away_team_name": "Maguary PE",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1538030,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_id": 754,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/754.webp",
"home_team_name": "ABC",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_id": 76,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/76.webp",
"league_name": "Serie D de Brasil",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-14 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Natal",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1689,
"best_odd": 4.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0281,
"implied_prob": 0.1837,
"model_prob": 0.2874,
"p_final": 0.2012
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2928,
"best_odd": 3.15,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0979,
"implied_prob": 0.2817,
"model_prob": 0.2976,
"p_final": 0.2864
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4924,
"best_odd": 1.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0589,
"ev": -0.2104,
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"model_prob": 0.415,
"p_final": 0.4757
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"edge_no": -0.1038,
"edge_yes": 0.1038,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2265,
"ev_yes": 0.199,
"implied_no": 0.5588,
"implied_yes": 0.4412,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.22,
"best_under_odd": 1.65,
"edge_over": 0.0595,
"edge_under": -0.0595,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.07,
"ev_under": -0.1453,
"implied_over": 0.4225,
"implied_under": 0.5775,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.199,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2976,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.415,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0589,
"ev": -0.2104,
"implied_prob": 0.5346,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.415,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "ABC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1038,
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0595,
"ev": 0.07,
"implied_prob": 0.4225,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1538030,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.199,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2874,
"draw": 0.2976,
"home": 0.415
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Maguary PE",
"home": "ABC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.108455,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.199,
"implied_prob": 0.4412,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1538030,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-14T18:23:20.393374+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Serie D de Brasil — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manauara | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 |
| 2 | Nacional AM | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| 3 | São Raimundo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Monte Roraima | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manaus FC | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | GAS | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nacional AM | 10 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 20 |
| 2 | Manauara | 10 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 | Monte Roraima | 10 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 |
| 4 | São Raimundo | 10 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 5 | Manaus FC | 10 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 10 |
| 6 | GAS | 10 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 5 |
