AFC Hermannstadt vs FCSB Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_win_prob": 0.58,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2465,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.72,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.06,
      "fair_odds_home": 5.76,
      "home_predicted_xg": 0.97,
      "home_win_prob": 0.1735,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or FCSB",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : FCSB",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "FCSB"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.91,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "FCSB",
      "confidence": 58.1,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : FCSB",
        "edge": 0.171,
        "edge_gap": 0.3347,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.4097,
        "model_prob": 0.5806,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 58.1,
          "draw": 24.6,
          "home": 17.3
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "away",
        "selection_name": "FCSB"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.21
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.21,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "FCSB Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.44,
        "market_odds": 2.21,
        "model_odds": 1.72,
        "overround": 10.5,
        "prob_edge": 12.9,
        "value_pct": 28.5,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 12,
        "away_failed_to_score": 8,
        "away_played": 38,
        "away_score_rate": 85.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 5,
        "home_failed_to_score": 13,
        "home_played": 38,
        "home_score_rate": 62.1,
        "no_prob": 45.8,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.2,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 54.2
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.91,
        "home_expected": 0.97,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 10.7
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.4
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          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 10.2
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            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 9.9
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          {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-3",
            "prob": 6.5
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "AFC Hermannstadt or Draw",
            "prob": 41.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "AFC Hermannstadt or FCSB",
            "prob": 75.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
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            "prob": 82.6
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or FCSB",
        "pick_prob": 82.6
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 58.0,
        "draw_pct": 24.6,
        "home_pct": 17.3,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "FCSB"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 2.88,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "over_prob": 54.9,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 54.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 2.88,
        "under_prob": 45.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
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        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 28.5,
        "implied_prob": 45.2,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "FCSB Win",
        "model_prob": 58.1,
        "odds": 2.21
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "FCSB",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "AFC Hermannstadt",
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      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
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          "model_pct": 17.34
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          "closing_implied_pct": 24.87,
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          "model_pct": 24.6
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          "closing_implied_pct": 40.97,
          "gap_pp": 17.1,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 58.06
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 49.2,
          "gap_pp": 5.7,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 54.9
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 50.8,
          "gap_pp": -5.7,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 45.1
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      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.65,
          "early": 2.65,
          "implied_closing_pct": 34.16,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 34.16,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
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        {
          "closing": 3.64,
          "early": 3.64,
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          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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        {
          "closing": 2.21,
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          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.9,
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          "kind": "ou_o"
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        {
          "closing": 1.84,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 50.8,
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          "implied_early_pct": 50.8,
          "kind": "ou_u"
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        "gap_pp": 17.1,
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "0-1",
        "prob": 10.7
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    },
    "home_xg": 0.97,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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        "ev_under": -0.098,
        "featured": true,
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        "value_side": "over"
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        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.4097,
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        "side_label": "FCSB",
        "sort_key": 10028.62,
        "tier": "best"
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        "ev_yes": -0.0515,
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        "id": "btts",
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        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "0-1",
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    "match": {
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      "away_team_id": 559,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/559.webp",
      "away_team_name": "FCSB",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ro.svg",
      "country_name": "Romania",
      "fixture_id": 1531544,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2579,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2579.webp",
      "home_team_name": "AFC Hermannstadt",
      "league_country": "Romania",
      "league_id": 283,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/283.webp",
      "league_name": "Liga I",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 14:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
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          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 8.0
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          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 2.21,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": 0.0318,
            "implied_prob": 0.4097,
            "model_prob": 0.5806,
            "p_final": 0.4669
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            "ev": -0.0976,
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            "model_prob": 0.246,
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "ev": -0.2447,
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        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.75,
          "edge_no": -0.0021,
          "edge_yes": 0.0021,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.0611,
          "ev_yes": -0.0515,
          "implied_no": 0.4601,
          "implied_yes": 0.5399,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "reliability": "medium"
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        "ou25": {
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          "edge_over": 0.0502,
          "edge_under": -0.0502,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "ev_under": -0.098,
          "implied_over": 0.4988,
          "implied_under": 0.5012,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.88,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
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      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
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      "decision_confidence_v1": {
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
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      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
          "draw_prob": 0.246,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.5806,
          "over_prob": 0.549,
          "total_xg": 2.88,
          "under_prob": 0.451,
          "xg_diff": 0.94
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        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "ev": 0.0318,
          "implied_prob": 0.4097,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.5806,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "FCSB"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0021,
          "ev": -0.0515,
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          "model_prob": 0.542,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0502,
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          "implied_prob": 0.4988,
          "model_prob": 0.549,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1531544,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.109,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.5806,
        "draw": 0.246,
        "home": 0.1734
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "FCSB",
        "home": "AFC Hermannstadt"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.059841,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.109,
        "implied_prob": 0.4988,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.549,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T13:59:28.685871+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}