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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 draw BST Galaxy ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.51
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
BST Galaxy win · Greater Tomorrow 0–1 BST Galaxy
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"percent_draw": "45%",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
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"steam_subtitle": "",
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"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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{
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"outcome": "away"
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{
"edge_pp": -6.53,
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"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.73,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
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{
"edge_pp": 6.53,
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{
"edge_pp": -5.01,
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"label": "BTTS Yes",
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{
"edge_pp": 5.01,
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"hero_side": "home",
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"market_prob_pct": 35.45,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Greater Tomorrow"
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"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
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"degraded_note": "",
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"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
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"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Draw",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 34.0,
"model_prob_pct": 35.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Draw, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and BST Galaxy remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
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"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.71,
"hero_label": "Greater Tomorrow",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Greater Tomorrow. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "The market shows a modest preference for Greater Tomorrow relative to the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Greater Tomorrow. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement."
],
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"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Greater Tomorrow above the current fair estimate.",
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],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
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"model_validation": {
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.7,
"max_prob_pct": 35.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
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{
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"label": "Draw",
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"side": "draw"
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{
"edge_pp": 4.22,
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"label": "BST Galaxy",
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"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market shows a modest preference for Greater Tomorrow relative to the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Greater Tomorrow (34.0%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Draw, Market \u2192 Greater Tomorrow, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
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"closing_odds": 2.51,
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"context": "match",
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"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 39.84,
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{
"detail": "PRE1",
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"label": "Closing Recorded",
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
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},
"market_move_intelligence": {
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"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/10",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.45,
"pick_team": "Greater Tomorrow",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_team_name": "Greater Tomorrow",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
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"Sharp money signals",
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"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 22706,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22706.webp",
"away_team_name": "BST Galaxy",
"country_code": "GM",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/gm.svg",
"country_name": "Gambia",
"fixture_id": 1531385,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Gambia",
"home_team_id": 20811,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/20811.webp",
"home_team_name": "Greater Tomorrow",
"league_country": "Gambia",
"league_id": 845,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/845.webp",
"league_name": "GFA League",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-16 16:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"away": {
"alpha": 0.4214,
"best_odd": 2.91,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0179,
"ev": -0.0581,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.3482,
"p_final": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4401,
"best_odd": 2.62,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0931,
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"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4114,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0235,
"ev": -0.1691,
"implied_prob": 0.3545,
"model_prob": 0.2974,
"p_final": 0.331
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.67,
"best_yes_odd": 2.27,
"edge_no": 0.0501,
"edge_yes": -0.0501,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0538,
"ev_yes": -0.1624,
"implied_no": 0.5809,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
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"ou25": {
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"edge_over": -0.0653,
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"reliability": "medium"
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},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.81,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
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"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
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"best_tracked_ev": 0.0556,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.369,
"draw_prob": 0.3544,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3544,
"over_prob": 0.272,
"total_xg": 1.81,
"under_prob": 0.728,
"xg_diff": 0.17
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0065,
"ev": -0.0931,
"implied_prob": 0.3397,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3544,
"side": "draw",
"side_label": "draw"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0501,
"ev": 0.0538,
"implied_prob": 0.5809,
"model_prob": 0.631,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0653,
"ev": 0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"model_prob": 0.728,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1531385,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0556,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3482,
"draw": 0.3544,
"home": 0.2974
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "BST Galaxy",
"home": "Greater Tomorrow"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.05262,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0556,
"implied_prob": 0.6627,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.728,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1531385,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-16T18:23:08.829133+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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GFA League — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Medina United | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 48 |
| 2 | Fortune | 28 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Bombada | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | GPA | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | Brikama United | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | Real de Banjul | 28 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 41 |
| 7 | Team Rhino | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 37 |
| 8 | Hart Acedemy | 28 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 35 |
| 9 | Dutch Lions | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 33 |
| 10 | BST Galaxy | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 33 |
| 11 | Hawks | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Falcons | 28 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 31 |
| 13 | Greater Tomorrow | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 31 |
| 14 | Steve Biko | 28 | 5 | 14 | 9 | 29 |
| 15 | TMT | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 29 |
| 16 | Samger | 28 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 28 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bombada | 28 | 34 | 26 | +8 | 44 |
| 2 | Brikama United | 28 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 42 |
| 3 | Hart Acedemy | 28 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 35 |
| 4 | Fortune | 28 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 47 |
| 5 | Medina United | 28 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 48 |
| 6 | Dutch Lions | 28 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 33 |
| 7 | Real de Banjul | 28 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 41 |
| 8 | Team Rhino | 28 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 37 |
| 9 | BST Galaxy | 28 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Steve Biko | 28 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 29 |
| 11 | Hawks | 28 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 31 |
| 12 | GPA | 28 | 22 | 17 | +5 | 44 |
| 13 | Greater Tomorrow | 28 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 31 |
| 14 | Samger | 28 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 28 |
| 15 | TMT | 28 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 29 |
| 16 | Falcons | 28 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 31 |
