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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Suecia Suecia ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 3-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Suecia win · Suecia 3–1 Polonia
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.2424,
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"away_win_prob": 0.2992,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.34,
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"home_win_prob": 0.4584,
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"over_25_prob": 0.73,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Suecia or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Suecia"
},
"away_xg": 1.73,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Suecia",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0417,
"edge_gap": 0.1592,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5,
"model_prob": 0.4583,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 24.3,
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},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.93
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Suecia Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.0,
"market_odds": 1.93,
"model_odds": 2.18,
"overround": 3.6,
"prob_edge": -5.9,
"value_pct": -11.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 82.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 87.3,
"no_prob": 27.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 72.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 72.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.73,
"home_expected": 2.06,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
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},
{
"away": 1,
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},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
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},
{
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 5.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Suecia or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Suecia or Polonia",
"prob": 75.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Polonia",
"prob": 54.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Suecia or Polonia",
"pick_prob": 75.7
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 24.2,
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"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Suecia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
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"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
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"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 16.0,
"implied_prob": 25.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Polonia Win",
"model_prob": 29.9,
"odds": 3.88
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Polonia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 24.87,
"draw": 25.13,
"home": 50.0
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-28 18:44:24",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-28 18:14:22",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Suecia",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 2.82,
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"gap_pp": -4.17,
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"model_pct": 45.83
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.13,
"gap_pp": -0.88,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.25
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.87,
"gap_pp": 5.04,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 29.92
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.61,
"gap_pp": 15.39,
"kind": "ou_o",
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},
{
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"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
"closing": 3.84,
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"has_edge": false,
"label": "2-1",
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"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
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},
"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.0
},
{
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 5.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.06,
"homepage_pick": null,
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0308,
"edge_pp": 3.1,
"market_prob": 0.5758,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0308,
"ev": 0.0009,
"implied_prob": 0.5758,
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},
"p_final": 0.6066,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.4,
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"risk_adj_ev": 0.0009,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
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"edge": -0.0223,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.4242,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 24.1,
"text": "+24.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.3767,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -37.7,
"text": "-37.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 10366.9,
"tier": "best",
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"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.555,
"edge": 0.0261,
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"market_prob": 0.5966,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.728,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1445,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
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},
"p_final": 0.6227,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.132,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0316,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
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"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.5966,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3064,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.6,
"text": "-30.6%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.143,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.3,
"text": "+14.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.143,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 27.2,
"sort_key": 10128.7,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 72.8
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0802,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.0,
"text": "-8.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0193,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.9,
"text": "+1.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4583,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1155,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Suecia",
"sort_key": 5215.44,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 8.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.05,
"hero_label": "Polonia",
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"market_team": "Suecia",
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"model_team": "Suecia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.241,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Suecia at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Suecia as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Suecia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0802,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4583,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1155,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.33
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.05,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.73,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.06,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.06,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.06 \u00b7 Away xG 1.73 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +53%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.241,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Suecia at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Suecia as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Suecia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0802,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4583,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1155,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.33
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Suecia 2.06 xG vs Polonia 1.73 \u2192 Suecia 45.8%",
"Market: Suecia ~50.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +8.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Suecia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.16,
"fair_prob": 45.84,
"label": "Suecia",
"market_prob": 50.0,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.89,
"fair_prob": 24.24,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.05,
"fair_prob": 29.92,
"label": "Polonia",
"market_prob": 24.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.56,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.44,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.46,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.56,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.67,
"fair_prob": 72.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.67,
"fair_prob": 27.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.92,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Polonia",
"market_prob_pct": 24.87,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Polonia\u0027s win probability at 29.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.9%, a difference of 5.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Suecia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.2,
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Suecia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Suecia 2.06 xG vs Polonia 1.73 \u2192 Suecia 45.8%",
"Market: Suecia ~50.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +8.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Suecia with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.05,
"hero_label": "Polonia",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +8.6%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Polonia.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Polonia.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Polonia.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.9 pp (at 45.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.9,
"max_prob_pct": 45.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Polonia",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.0,
"lead": "The model rates Polonia considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.16,
"edge_pp": -4.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.84,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Suecia",
"market_prob_pct": 50.0,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.89,
"edge_pp": -0.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.24,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.13,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.05,
"edge_pp": 5.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.92,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Polonia",
"market_prob_pct": 24.87,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 8.6% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Suecia (50.0%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.6%, 8/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Suecia \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.77,
"closing_odds": 3.88,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.77,
"entry_odds": 3.88,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 13m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Draw (8.6%, 8/9) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.84",
"3.67",
"3.50"
],
"display": "3.86 \u2192 3.11 \u2192 3.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 13m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.86"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.11"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.5,
3.84,
3.76,
3.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,4.2 56.0,2.1",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.84"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "SBO",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.8,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 3.8,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.6%",
"open_odds": 3.5,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 35,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "poland",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Polonia",
"away_team_id": 24,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/24.webp",
"away_team_name": "Polonia",
"away_team_public_id": "3JHTNiAytX9sI8",
"away_team_slug": "poland",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528907,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Suecia",
"home_team_display_name": "Suecia",
"home_team_id": 5,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5.webp",
"home_team_name": "Suecia",
"home_team_public_id": "2gOtIvPgul7dU6",
"home_team_slug": "sweden",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sweden",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-28 18:45:00",
"public_id": "1GWyuQzkeHAg9n",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Solna",
"venue_name": "Strawberry Arena"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2773,
"best_odd": 3.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.014,
"ev": 0.0193,
"implied_prob": 0.2487,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2487,
"draw": 0.2513,
"home": 0.5
},
"model_prob": 0.2992,
"p_final": 0.2627
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.296,
"best_odd": 3.84,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0026,
"ev": -0.045,
"implied_prob": 0.2513,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2487,
"draw": 0.2513,
"home": 0.5
},
"model_prob": 0.2425,
"p_final": 0.2487
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5625,
"best_odd": 1.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2487,
"draw": 0.2513,
"home": 0.5
},
"model_prob": 0.4583,
"p_final": 0.4766
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.88,
"edge": 0.0414,
"ev": 0.1607,
"implied_prob": 0.2577,
"model_prob": 0.2992
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.84,
"edge": -0.0179,
"ev": -0.0687,
"implied_prob": 0.2604,
"model_prob": 0.2425
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.93,
"edge": -0.0598,
"ev": -0.1154,
"implied_prob": 0.5181,
"model_prob": 0.4583
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1445,
"alpha_yes": 0.1987,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1267,
"edge_yes": 0.1267,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3064,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1159,
"ev_yes": 0.143,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0316,
"implied_no": 0.3987,
"implied_yes": 0.6013,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1445,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"model_prob": 0.272,
"p_final": 0.3844
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"best_odd": 1.555,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.5966,
"model_prob": 0.728,
"p_final": 0.6227
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3844,
"p_final_yes": 0.6227,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1998,
"alpha_under": 0.1456,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.65,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.24,
"edge_over": 0.1556,
"edge_under": -0.1546,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.241,
"ev_over_risk_adj": 0.0009,
"ev_under": -0.3767,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0998,
"implied_over": 0.5744,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5758,
"implied_under": 0.4256,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4242,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0308,
"ev": 0.0009,
"implied_prob": 0.5758,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6066
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.0223,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.4242,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4019
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6066,
"p_final_under": 0.4019,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.241,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.241,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.241,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.241,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Suecia at 45.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Suecia as the value side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Suecia",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +24.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +24.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+24.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Suecia).",
"Decision strength: 7.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0802,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4583,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1155,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.33
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.728,
"draw_prob": 0.2425,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4583,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.33
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0234,
"ev": -0.0802,
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4583,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Suecia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.555,
"edge": 0.0261,
"market_prob": 0.5966,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.728,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1445,
"best_odd": 2.3,
"edge": -0.019,
"ev": -0.1159,
"implied_prob": 0.4034,
"model_prob": 0.272,
"p_final": 0.3844
},
"p_final": 0.6227,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0316,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1987,
"best_odd": 1.555,
"edge": 0.0261,
"ev": -0.0316,
"implied_prob": 0.5966,
"model_prob": 0.728,
"p_final": 0.6227
}
},
"edge": 0.1267,
"ev": 0.143,
"implied_prob": 0.6013,
"model_prob": 0.728,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0308,
"market_prob": 0.5758,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1998,
"best_odd": 1.65,
"edge": 0.0308,
"ev": 0.0009,
"implied_prob": 0.5758,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6066
},
"p_final": 0.6066,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0009,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1456,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": -0.0223,
"ev": -0.0998,
"implied_prob": 0.4242,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.4019
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1556,
"ev": 0.241,
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528907,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.241,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2992,
"draw": 0.2425,
"home": 0.4583
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.143,
"implied_prob": 0.6013,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.728,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.143,
"implied_prob": 0.6013,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.728,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Polonia",
"home": "Suecia"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.219913,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.241,
"implied_prob": 0.5744,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0802,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.93,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4583,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5181347150259068,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1155,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-11.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528907,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-28T19:10:48.366207+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Naciones de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italia | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Francia | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Turquía | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bélgica | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
