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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Italia Italia ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 1-4 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Italia win · Turquía 1–4 Italia
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "6542d9d3b9029c2b88922cbbfdab3e868abbcf7beacd6ebbbf3d11395ea66231",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3918,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2485,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3597,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.95,
"away_win_prob": 0.3918,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3918,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.268,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2485,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2485,
"fair_odds_away": 2.55,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.55,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.02,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.02,
"fair_odds_home": 2.78,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.78,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.84,
"home_win_prob": 0.3597,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3597,
"over_25_prob": 0.73,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.271
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Italia",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Italia"
},
"away_xg": 1.95,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Italia",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0168,
"edge_gap": 0.0324,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3751,
"model_prob": 0.3919,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 39.2,
"draw": 24.9,
"home": 35.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.58
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.58,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Italia Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.67,
"market_odds": 2.58,
"model_odds": 2.55,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 0.5,
"value_pct": 1.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 0,
"away_score_rate": 85.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 0,
"home_played": 0,
"home_score_rate": 84.1,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 73.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.95,
"home_expected": 1.84,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Turqu\u00eda or Draw",
"prob": 60.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Turqu\u00eda or Italia",
"prob": 75.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Italia",
"prob": 64.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Turqu\u00eda or Italia",
"pick_prob": 75.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.2,
"draw_pct": 24.9,
"home_pct": 36.0,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Italia"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.79,
"away_avg_scored": 0.0,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.0,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.79,
"under_prob": 27.1
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 1.2,
"implied_prob": 35.6,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Turqu\u00eda Win",
"model_prob": 36.0,
"odds": 2.81
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Italia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 37.51,
"draw": 28.05,
"home": 34.44
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-28 18:44:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-28 18:14:11",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Turqu\u00eda",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 2.42,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.44,
"gap_pp": 1.51,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.05,
"gap_pp": -3.19,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.86
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.51,
"gap_pp": 1.68,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.19
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.38,
"gap_pp": 16.62,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 73.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.62,
"gap_pp": -16.52,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 27.1
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.81,
"early": 2.73,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.44,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.04,
"implied_early_pct": 35.48,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.45,
"early": 3.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.92,
"implied_early_pct": 27.13,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.58,
"early": 2.59,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.12,
"implied_early_pct": 37.39,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.71,
"early": 1.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.38,
"implied_delta_pp": -2.42,
"implied_early_pct": 58.79,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.21,
"early": 2.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 2.42,
"implied_early_pct": 41.21,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -5.8,
"ev": -0.4168,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.2,
"market_prob": 0.1389,
"market_prob_pct": 13.9,
"model_prob": 0.081,
"model_prob_pct": 8.1,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.84,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2028,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0297,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.5835,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.73,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2028,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": -0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.5835,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6132
},
"p_final": 0.6132,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1826,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0065,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1478,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.4165,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.395
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2191,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.9,
"text": "+21.9%"
},
"ev_under": -0.3631,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -36.3,
"text": "-36.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2191,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 73.0,
"sort_key": 10347.19,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 27.1,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.206,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"edge": 0.023,
"edge_pp": 2.3,
"market_prob": 0.6203,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1498,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.363
},
"p_final": 0.6433,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 11.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.098,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0351,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.206,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.6203,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.6433
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3166,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -31.7,
"text": "-31.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1126,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.3,
"text": "+11.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1126,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 26.8,
"sort_key": 10101.34,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 73.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0132,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0132,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3919,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0111,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Italia",
"sort_key": 1796.7,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 804.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 8.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"alert_team": "Italia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 3.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.2,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 37.5,
"market_team": "Italia",
"model_prob_pct": 39.2,
"model_team": "Italia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2191,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2191,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Italia at 39.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Italia as the value side (39.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Italia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0132,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3919,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0111,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 44.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/9",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 80,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 3.2,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 3.2,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.95,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 44.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.84,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.95,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.84 \u00b7 Away xG 1.95 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +44%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"steam_team": "Italia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2191,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2191,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Italia at 39.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Italia as the value side (39.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Italia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0132,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3919,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0111,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 44.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Turqu\u00eda 1.84 xG vs Italia 1.95 \u2192 Italia 39.2%",
"Market: Italia ~37.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Italia odds \u2191 +19.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Italia, but the market has moved away from Italia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 1.53,
"fair_prob": 35.97,
"label": "Turqu\u00eda",
"market_prob": 34.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.2,
"fair_prob": 24.85,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.67,
"fair_prob": 39.18,
"label": "Italia",
"market_prob": 37.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.58,
"fair_prob": 73.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.48,
"fair_prob": 27.1,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.0,
"fair_prob": 73.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.2,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.0,
"fair_prob": 26.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.8,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": -3.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.85,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.05,
"status": "market_efficient",
"steam_team_name": "Italia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "market_efficient",
"max_gap_pp": 3.2,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Italia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 1.7,
"model_prob_pct": 39.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 80,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Turqu\u00eda 1.84 xG vs Italia 1.95 \u2192 Italia 39.2%",
"Market: Italia ~37.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Italia odds \u2191 +19.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Italia, but the market has moved away from Italia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -3.2,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Italia odds lengthened \u2191 +19.0%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Italia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Italia \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Italia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Italia \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Italia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/9) supports the current market view on Italia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 3.2,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.2 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.2,
"max_prob_pct": 39.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": -3.2,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 3.2,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 1.53,
"edge_pp": 1.53,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Turqu\u00eda",
"market_prob_pct": 34.44,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.2,
"edge_pp": -3.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.05,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.67,
"edge_pp": 1.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.18,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Italia",
"market_prob_pct": 37.51,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_efficient",
"status_label": "Market Efficient",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Italia \u2014 odds lengthened by 19.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Italia (37.5%).",
"However, Italia has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +19.0%, 9/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Italia, Market \u2192 Italia, while Italia odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.99,
"closing_odds": 3.45,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.99,
"entry_odds": 3.45,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 19.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 13m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"9/9 books lengthened Italia together (19.0% drift, score 66) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.59",
"2.34",
"2.10"
],
"display": "2.59 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 13m",
"pick_team": "Italia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.59"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.1,
2.58,
2.59,
2.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.4 37.3,0.0 56.0,3.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.59"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.1,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Italia odds \u2191 +19.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Italia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Italia odds \u2191 +19.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Italia while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Italia",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/9",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +19.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Italia",
"steam_score": 66,
"steam_team_name": "Italia",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 3.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "italy",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 2,
"away_team_display_name": "Italia",
"away_team_id": 768,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/768.webp",
"away_team_name": "Italia",
"away_team_public_id": "4xRN4xP5ED9pkY",
"away_team_slug": "italy",
"country_code": null,
"country_display_name": "World",
"country_flag": null,
"country_id": 168,
"country_name": "World",
"fixture_id": 1528905,
"goals_away": 2,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Turkey",
"home_team_display_name": "Turqu\u00eda",
"home_team_id": 777,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/777.webp",
"home_team_name": "Turqu\u00eda",
"home_team_public_id": "1I3vGnRHqc0pRj",
"home_team_slug": "turkiye",
"ht.home_team_slug": "turkiye",
"league_country": "World",
"league_country_display": "World",
"league_display_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_id": 5,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/5.webp",
"league_name": "Liga de Naciones de la UEFA",
"league_public_id": "2RfJso86Xu4FQW",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-28 18:45:00",
"public_id": "3KCdUfdLqiRPNx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Bursa",
"venue_name": "Bursa B\u00fcy\u00fck\u015fehir Stadyumu"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4387,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0132,
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3751,
"draw": 0.2805,
"home": 0.3444
},
"model_prob": 0.3919,
"p_final": 0.3825
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2856,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0091,
"ev": -0.0637,
"implied_prob": 0.2805,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3751,
"draw": 0.2805,
"home": 0.3444
},
"model_prob": 0.2486,
"p_final": 0.2714
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4398,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0066,
"ev": -0.0136,
"implied_prob": 0.3444,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3751,
"draw": 0.2805,
"home": 0.3444
},
"model_prob": 0.3595,
"p_final": 0.351
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.58,
"edge": 0.0043,
"ev": 0.0111,
"implied_prob": 0.3876,
"model_prob": 0.3919
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.45,
"edge": -0.0413,
"ev": -0.1423,
"implied_prob": 0.2899,
"model_prob": 0.2486
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": 0.0036,
"ev": 0.0102,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.3595
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1498,
"alpha_yes": 0.206,
"best_no_odd": 2.55,
"best_yes_odd": 1.52,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.11,
"edge_yes": 0.11,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3166,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1106,
"ev_yes": 0.1126,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0351,
"implied_no": 0.378,
"implied_yes": 0.622,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1498,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.363
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.206,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.6203,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.6433
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.363,
"p_final_yes": 0.6433,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2028,
"alpha_under": 0.1478,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.35,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.62,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.27,
"edge_over": 0.1458,
"edge_under": -0.1448,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2191,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0065,
"ev_under": -0.3631,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1034,
"implied_over": 0.5842,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5835,
"implied_under": 0.4158,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4165,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2028,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": -0.0065,
"implied_prob": 0.5835,
"model_prob": 0.73,
"p_final": 0.6132
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1478,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.0215,
"ev": -0.1034,
"implied_prob": 0.4165,
"model_prob": 0.271,
"p_final": 0.395
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6132,
"p_final_under": 0.395,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2191,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2191,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2191,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 3.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 3.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2191,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2191,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Italia at 39.2%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 37.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Italia as the value side (39.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Italia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +21.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 80,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Italia, but the model still strongly favours Italia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0132,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3919,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0111,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 44.4,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.11"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.11
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.732,
"draw_prob": 0.2486,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3919,
"over_prob": 0.73,
"total_xg": 3.79,
"under_prob": 0.271,
"xg_diff": 0.11
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0074,
"ev": -0.0132,
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3919,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Italia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.206,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.5,
"edge": 0.023,
"market_prob": 0.6203,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1498,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"edge": -0.0167,
"ev": -0.1106,
"implied_prob": 0.3797,
"model_prob": 0.268,
"p_final": 0.363
},
"p_final": 0.6433,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0351,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.206,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": 0.023,
"ev": -0.0351,
"implied_prob": 0.6203,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"p_final": 0.6433
}
},
"edge": 0.11,
"ev": 0.1126,
"implied_prob": 0.622,
"model_prob": 0.732,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.62,
"edge": 0.0297,
"market_prob": 0.5835,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
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"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": -0.0065,
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"p_final": 0.6132
},
"p_final": 0.6132,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0065,
"under": {
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},
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},
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"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528905,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2191,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2486,
"home": 0.3595
},
"reason_codes": [
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"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
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"ev": 0.1126,
"implied_prob": 0.622,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.732,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Italia",
"home": "Turqu\u00eda"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2191,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0132,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.58,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3751,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3919,
"raw_edge_display": "+1.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.38759689922480617,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0111,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+1.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528905,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-28T19:10:24.422434+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga de Naciones de la UEFA — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italia | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Francia | 4 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 3 | Bélgica | 4 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 4 | Turquía | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francia | 4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 |
| 2 | Italia | 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 7 |
| 3 | Turquía | 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | -0.6 | 0 |
| 4 | Bélgica | 4 | 0.6 | 2.0 | -1.4 | 6 |
