Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Yanbian Longding Guangxi Hengchen ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.63
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Guangxi Hengchen win · Guangxi Hengchen 2–1 Yanbian Longding
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "28ab74b4a14f23a5ac6e75c6c35de8bf10ad263985d4a5068463521016e5b8f3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.4,
"away_win_prob": 0.3994,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.5,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.27,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.2,
"home_win_prob": 0.3058,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Guangxi Hengchen or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Guangxi Hengchen"
},
"away_xg": 1.4,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Yanbian Longding",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2053,
"edge_gap": 0.0941,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1944,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.0,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 30.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.77
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.77,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Yanbian Longding Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 5.14,
"market_odds": 4.77,
"model_odds": 2.5,
"overround": 7.8,
"prob_edge": 19.0,
"value_pct": 90.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 75.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 21,
"home_score_rate": 69.9,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.4,
"home_expected": 1.2,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Guangxi Hengchen or Draw",
"prob": 60.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Guangxi Hengchen or Yanbian Longding",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Yanbian Longding",
"prob": 69.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Guangxi Hengchen or Yanbian Longding",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 39.9,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 30.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Yanbian Longding"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 90.8,
"implied_prob": 21.0,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Yanbian Longding Win",
"model_prob": 40.0,
"odds": 4.77
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Yanbian Longding",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 19.44,
"draw": 23.66,
"home": 56.9
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 11:29:27",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-12 11:03:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Guangxi Hengchen",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 3.86,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.9,
"gap_pp": -26.34,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.66,
"gap_pp": 5.82,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.44,
"gap_pp": 20.53,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 39.97
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.23,
"gap_pp": -4.03,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.77,
"gap_pp": 4.03,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.63,
"early": 1.75,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 3.86,
"implied_early_pct": 53.04,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.92,
"early": 3.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.66,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.77,
"implied_early_pct": 24.43,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.77,
"early": 4.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.44,
"implied_delta_pp": -3.09,
"implied_early_pct": 22.53,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.82,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.23,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.26,
"implied_early_pct": 52.49,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 2.0,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.26,
"implied_early_pct": 47.51,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.0,
"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.9
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.2,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.063,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.3,
"text": "+6.3%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.063,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.3,
"text": "+6.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9066,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+90.7%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Yanbian Longding",
"sort_key": 10206.7,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0062,
"edge_pp": 0.6,
"market_prob": 0.4905,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0062,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5033
},
"p_final": 0.4967,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0262,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0661,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0661,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4967
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0601,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.0,
"text": "-6.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10032.4,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.725,
"edge": 0.0033,
"edge_pp": 0.3,
"market_prob": 0.5293,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4677
},
"p_final": 0.5326,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0633,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0812,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5293,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5326
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.086,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.6,
"text": "-8.6%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0063,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0063,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 1798.425,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 26.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.32,
"hero_label": "Guangxi Hengchen",
"market_prob_pct": 19.4,
"market_team": "Guangxi Hengchen",
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"model_team": "Yanbian Longding",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9065,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yanbian Longding at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yanbian Longding as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yanbian Longding",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Yanbian Longding \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +91% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528710 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +91% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20964360587002098,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9066,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+90.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "4/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4444444444444444,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 26.32,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 26.32,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.4,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.2,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.4,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.20 \u00b7 Away xG 1.40 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9065,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yanbian Longding at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yanbian Longding as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yanbian Longding",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Yanbian Longding \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +91% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528710 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +91% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20964360587002098,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9066,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+90.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Guangxi Hengchen 1.20 xG vs Yanbian Longding 1.40 \u2192 Yanbian Longding 39.9%",
"Market: Guangxi Hengchen ~19.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Yanbian Longding, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -26.32,
"fair_prob": 30.58,
"label": "Guangxi Hengchen",
"market_prob": 56.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob": 29.48,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.5,
"fair_prob": 39.94,
"label": "Yanbian Longding",
"market_prob": 19.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.82,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.18,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.68,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.68,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -26.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Guangxi Hengchen",
"market_prob_pct": 56.9,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Guangxi Hengchen\u0027s win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 30.6%, a difference of 26.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 26.32,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Yanbian Longding",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 19.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.5,
"model_prob_pct": 39.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Yanbian Longding \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+20.5 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Guangxi Hengchen 1.20 xG vs Yanbian Longding 1.40 \u2192 Yanbian Longding 39.9%",
"Market: Guangxi Hengchen ~19.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +6.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Yanbian Longding, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -26.32,
"hero_label": "Guangxi Hengchen",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +6.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 26.32,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.4 pp (at 39.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.4,
"max_prob_pct": 39.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Guangxi Hengchen",
"largest_gap_pp": -26.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Guangxi Hengchen higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 26.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -26.32,
"edge_pp": -26.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.58,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Guangxi Hengchen",
"market_prob_pct": 56.9,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.82,
"edge_pp": 5.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.48,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.66,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 20.5,
"edge_pp": 20.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 39.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Yanbian Longding",
"market_prob_pct": 19.44,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Guangxi Hengchen (19.4%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +6.1%, 4/9) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Yanbian Longding, Market \u2192 Guangxi Hengchen, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 61.35,
"closing_odds": 1.63,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 61.35,
"entry_odds": 1.63,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 41m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.80 \u2192 3.04 \u2192 3.50) \u2014 net 6.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.92",
"3.61",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.80 \u2192 3.04 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 20h 41m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.04"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.92,
3.8,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,0.0 37.3,3.5 56.0,12.2",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.92"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/9",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 26.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "yanbian-longding",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Yanbian Longding",
"away_team_id": 17271,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/17271.webp",
"away_team_name": "Yanbian Longding",
"away_team_public_id": "4QdQWX4w6Dppg3",
"away_team_slug": "yanbian-longding",
"country_code": "CN",
"country_display_name": "China",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/cn.svg",
"country_id": 32,
"country_name": "China",
"fixture_id": 1528710,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "China",
"home_team_display_name": "Guangxi Hengchen",
"home_team_id": 23268,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/23268.webp",
"home_team_name": "Guangxi Hengchen",
"home_team_public_id": "3FnWMUh4EGYruY",
"home_team_slug": "guangxi-hengchen",
"ht.home_team_slug": "guangxi-hengchen",
"league_country": "China",
"league_country_display": "China",
"league_display_name": "Liga Uno China",
"league_id": 170,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/170.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Uno China",
"league_public_id": "0Z8NZOcuHfzq60",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-12 11:30:00",
"public_id": "2Nb74bJZ0yp9z4",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Nanning",
"venue_name": "Guangxi Sports Center"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1384,
"best_odd": 4.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.063,
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1944,
"draw": 0.2366,
"home": 0.569
},
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"p_final": 0.2228
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2738,
"best_odd": 3.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0159,
"ev": -0.0101,
"implied_prob": 0.2366,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1944,
"draw": 0.2366,
"home": 0.569
},
"model_prob": 0.2948,
"p_final": 0.2525
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3629,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0956,
"ev": -0.2284,
"implied_prob": 0.569,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1944,
"draw": 0.2366,
"home": 0.569
},
"model_prob": 0.3056,
"p_final": 0.4734
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.77,
"edge": 0.19,
"ev": 0.9065,
"implied_prob": 0.2096,
"model_prob": 0.3997
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.92,
"edge": 0.0396,
"ev": 0.1554,
"implied_prob": 0.2551,
"model_prob": 0.2948
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.3079,
"ev": -0.5019,
"implied_prob": 0.6135,
"model_prob": 0.3056
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2204,
"alpha_yes": 0.2424,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.83,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0168,
"edge_yes": 0.0168,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.086,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0927,
"ev_yes": -0.0063,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0812,
"implied_no": 0.4738,
"implied_yes": 0.5262,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4677
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5293,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5326
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4677,
"p_final_yes": 0.5326,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2265,
"alpha_under": 0.2265,
"best_over_odd": 1.95,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.88,
"edge_over": -0.0262,
"edge_under": 0.0262,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0601,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0891,
"ev_under": 0.036,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0661,
"implied_over": 0.5082,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5095,
"implied_under": 0.4918,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4905,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0062,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5033
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0661,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4967
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5033,
"p_final_under": 0.4967,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9065,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.063,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.5,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.5
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 26.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 26.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9065,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.5,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Yanbian Longding at 40.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 19.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Yanbian Longding as the value side (40.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Yanbian Longding",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Yanbian Longding \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.77 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +91% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1528710 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.77 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.3% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Yanbian Longding), but pricing still diverges by 26.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +91% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20964360587002098,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9066,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+90.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 3.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.2"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.2
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.2948,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3997,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0284,
"ev": 0.063,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Yanbian Longding"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.725,
"edge": 0.0033,
"market_prob": 0.5293,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2204,
"best_odd": 1.94,
"edge": -0.003,
"ev": -0.0927,
"implied_prob": 0.4707,
"model_prob": 0.457,
"p_final": 0.4677
},
"p_final": 0.5326,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0812,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2424,
"best_odd": 1.725,
"edge": 0.0033,
"ev": -0.0812,
"implied_prob": 0.5293,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"p_final": 0.5326
}
},
"edge": 0.0168,
"ev": -0.0063,
"implied_prob": 0.5262,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0062,
"market_prob": 0.4905,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": -0.0062,
"ev": -0.0891,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5033
},
"p_final": 0.4967,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0661,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2265,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": 0.0062,
"ev": -0.0661,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4967
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0262,
"ev": 0.036,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4918,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1528710,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.063,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3997,
"draw": 0.2948,
"home": 0.3056
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Yanbian Longding",
"home": "Guangxi Hengchen"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.027699,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.063,
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Yanbian Longding",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 4.77,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1944,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3997,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.20964360587002098,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9066,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+90.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528710,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-12T11:29:29.110176+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Guangxi Hengchen & Yanbian Longding!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Liga Uno China — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guangzhou E-Power | 24 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 54 |
| 2 | Guangxi Hengchen | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | Shenzhen Juniors | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 44 |
| 4 | Nantong Zhiyun | 23 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 39 |
| 5 | Yanbian Longding | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 35 |
| 6 | Shaanxi Union | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Hebei Kungfu | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 31 |
| 8 | Wuxi Wugou | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 |
| 9 | Changchun Yatai | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 29 |
| 10 | Ningbo Professional | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 11 | Dalian Huayi | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 29 |
| 12 | Suzhou Dongwu | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 26 |
| 13 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
| 14 | Nanjing City | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 21 |
| 15 | Meizhou Kejia | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| 16 | Dongguan United | 24 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guangzhou E-Power | 24 | 48 | 20 | +28 | 54 |
| 2 | Guangxi Hengchen | 24 | 40 | 26 | +14 | 45 |
| 3 | Shenzhen Juniors | 24 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 44 |
| 4 | Changchun Yatai | 23 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 29 |
| 5 | Shaanxi Union | 23 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 33 |
| 6 | Wuxi Wugou | 23 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 29 |
| 7 | Heilongjiang Lava Spring | 24 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 23 |
| 8 | Yanbian Longding | 24 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 35 |
| 9 | Nantong Zhiyun | 23 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 39 |
| 10 | Dalian Huayi | 23 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 29 |
| 11 | Suzhou Dongwu | 24 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 26 |
| 12 | Ningbo Professional | 23 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 29 |
| 13 | Meizhou Kejia | 24 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 15 |
| 14 | Dongguan United | 24 | 24 | 49 | -25 | 13 |
| 15 | Hebei Kungfu | 24 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 31 |
| 16 | Nanjing City | 24 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 21 |
