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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 FK Tobol Kostanay FK Tobol Kostanay ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.78
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
FK Tobol Kostanay win · FK Tobol Kostanay 3–1 Ulytau
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.2622,
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"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.466,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.534,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2895,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.81,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.45,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.23,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.5,
"home_win_prob": 0.4483,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : FK Tobol Kostanay or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "FK Tobol Kostanay"
},
"away_xg": 1.1,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0569,
"edge_gap": 0.1585,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.505,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 26.2,
"draw": 29.0,
"home": 44.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.78
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.78,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "FK Tobol Kostanay Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.98,
"market_odds": 1.78,
"model_odds": 2.23,
"overround": 11.2,
"prob_edge": -11.3,
"value_pct": -20.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 66.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 77.7,
"no_prob": 46.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.1,
"home_expected": 1.5,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "FK Tobol Kostanay or Draw",
"prob": 73.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "FK Tobol Kostanay or Ulytau",
"prob": 71.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Ulytau",
"prob": 55.1
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "FK Tobol Kostanay or Draw",
"pick_prob": 73.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 26.2,
"draw_pct": 28.9,
"home_pct": 44.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "FK Tobol Kostanay"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 0.3,
"implied_prob": 28.8,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 28.9,
"odds": 3.47
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Ulytau",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.59,
"draw": 25.91,
"home": 50.5
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 13:55:36",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 13:30:17",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.5,
"gap_pp": -5.69,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 44.81
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.91,
"gap_pp": 3.06,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.96
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.59,
"gap_pp": 2.63,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 26.23
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.6,
"gap_pp": -3.4,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.4,
"gap_pp": 3.4,
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}
],
"movement": [
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"early": 1.78,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.5,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.47,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
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{
"closing": 3.81,
"early": 3.81,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.81,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.93,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.4,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.4,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
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"ev": -0.016,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.123,
"model_prob_pct": 12.3,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 8.2
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.5,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"alpha": 0.2289,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0047,
"edge_pp": -0.5,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0788,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.498
},
"p_final": 0.498,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": -2.1,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.0788,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.502
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.0,
"text": "+6.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0003,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.0,
"text": "-0.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0604,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10054.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2471,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0003,
"edge_pp": -0.0,
"market_prob": 0.5351,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0003,
"ev": -0.0791,
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.4651
},
"p_final": 0.5349,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": -0.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0815,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.08,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2471,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.5351,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.5349
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.068,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -6.8,
"text": "-6.8%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.036,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.6,
"text": "+3.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.036,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 46.6,
"sort_key": 10032.4,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 53.4
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1567,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.7,
"text": "-15.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0707,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.1,
"text": "-7.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2024,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"sort_key": 1782.325,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"alert_team": "Ulytau",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.7,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.67,
"hero_label": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"market_team": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"model_prob_pct": 44.8,
"model_team": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK Tobol Kostanay)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK Tobol Kostanay)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK Tobol Kostanay at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK Tobol Kostanay as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK Tobol Kostanay).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2024,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "4/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.4,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.67,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.67,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.1,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.5,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.5,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.50 \u00b7 Away xG 1.10 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +11%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"steam_team": "Ulytau",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK Tobol Kostanay)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK Tobol Kostanay)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK Tobol Kostanay at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK Tobol Kostanay as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK Tobol Kostanay).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2024,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FK Tobol Kostanay 1.50 xG vs Ulytau 1.10 \u2192 FK Tobol Kostanay 44.8%",
"Market: FK Tobol Kostanay ~50.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Ulytau odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "FK Tobol Kostanay projects stronger on expected goals (+0.40 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.67,
"fair_prob": 44.83,
"label": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"market_prob": 50.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.04,
"fair_prob": 28.95,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.91,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.63,
"fair_prob": 26.22,
"label": "Ulytau",
"market_prob": 23.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.77,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 48.97,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.77,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 51.03,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.91,
"fair_prob": 53.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 52.49,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.91,
"fair_prob": 46.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 47.51,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -5.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.83,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ulytau"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates FK Tobol Kostanay\u0027s win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 5.67,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.7,
"model_prob_pct": 44.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "FK Tobol Kostanay \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: FK Tobol Kostanay 1.50 xG vs Ulytau 1.10 \u2192 FK Tobol Kostanay 44.8%",
"Market: FK Tobol Kostanay ~50.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Ulytau odds \u2191 +9.1%"
],
"one_liner": "FK Tobol Kostanay projects stronger on expected goals (+0.40 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -5.67,
"hero_label": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Ulytau odds lengthened \u2191 +9.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Ulytau has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/10 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on FK Tobol Kostanay. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Ulytau \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on FK Tobol Kostanay. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Ulytau has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/10 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Drift away from Ulytau \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices FK Tobol Kostanay above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Ulytau has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (4/10), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.67,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 15.9 pp (at 44.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 15.9,
"max_prob_pct": 44.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"largest_gap_pp": -5.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices FK Tobol Kostanay higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.67,
"edge_pp": -5.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.83,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 3.04,
"edge_pp": 3.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.95,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.91,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.63,
"edge_pp": 2.63,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.22,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Ulytau",
"market_prob_pct": 23.59,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Ulytau \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers FK Tobol Kostanay (50.5%).",
"Ulytau odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +9.1%, 4/10) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"FK Tobol Kostanay \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 56.18,
"closing_odds": 1.78,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 56.18,
"entry_odds": 1.78,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "4/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 52m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Ulytau (9.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated the move, but wider market participation remains limited."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.81",
"3.55",
"3.30"
],
"display": "4.07 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 52m",
"pick_team": "Ulytau",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.07"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.81,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,7.4",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.81"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Ulytau",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Ulytau",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/10",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Ulytau",
"steam_score": 43,
"steam_team_name": "Ulytau",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Ulytau",
"away_team_id": 21010,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/21010.webp",
"away_team_name": "Ulytau",
"away_team_public_id": "5Xc62gcjyqXp6n",
"away_team_slug": "ulytau",
"country_code": "KZ",
"country_display_name": "Kazakhstan",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/kz.svg",
"country_id": 84,
"country_name": "Kazakhstan",
"fixture_id": 1528090,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Kazakhstan",
"home_team_display_name": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"home_team_id": 2259,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2259.webp",
"home_team_name": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"home_team_public_id": "2wzeF8j3OGI5H1",
"home_team_slug": "fk-tobol-kostanay",
"league_country": "Kazakhstan",
"league_country_display": "Kazakhstan",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Kazajist\u00e1n",
"league_id": 389,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/389.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Kazajist\u00e1n",
"league_public_id": "2KaZhbgHP3BiR7",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 14:00:00",
"public_id": "5e9wPfUUD5RN3R",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Kostanay",
"venue_name": "Centralnyj Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2881,
"best_odd": 3.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0722,
"implied_prob": 0.2359,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2359,
"draw": 0.2591,
"home": 0.505
},
"model_prob": 0.2623,
"p_final": 0.2435
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2862,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0088,
"ev": -0.0707,
"implied_prob": 0.2591,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2359,
"draw": 0.2591,
"home": 0.505
},
"model_prob": 0.2896,
"p_final": 0.2678
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5488,
"best_odd": 1.78,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.1567,
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2359,
"draw": 0.2591,
"home": 0.505
},
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"p_final": 0.4738
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.81,
"edge": -0.0002,
"ev": -0.0008,
"implied_prob": 0.2625,
"model_prob": 0.2623
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.47,
"edge": 0.0015,
"ev": 0.005,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"model_prob": 0.2896
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.78,
"edge": -0.1137,
"ev": -0.2024,
"implied_prob": 0.5618,
"model_prob": 0.4481
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2246,
"alpha_yes": 0.2471,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.94,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0091,
"edge_yes": 0.0091,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.068,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0791,
"ev_yes": 0.036,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.08,
"implied_no": 0.4751,
"implied_yes": 0.5249,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0003,
"ev": -0.0791,
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.4651
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2471,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.5351,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.5349
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4651,
"p_final_yes": 0.5349,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2289,
"alpha_under": 0.2289,
"best_over_odd": 2.2,
"best_under_odd": 1.93,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.85,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.87,
"edge_over": -0.0077,
"edge_under": 0.0077,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0604,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0788,
"ev_under": -0.0003,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0612,
"implied_over": 0.4897,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5027,
"implied_under": 0.5103,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4973,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0788,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.498
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.502
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.498,
"p_final_under": 0.502,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4897,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "alternative",
"side": "over",
"slot": "alternative"
},
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "C",
"stake_factor": 0.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK Tobol Kostanay)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0604,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.0604,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates FK Tobol Kostanay at 44.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 50.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies FK Tobol Kostanay as the value side (44.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"has_top_pick": false,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "FK Tobol Kostanay",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"edge_low"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"edge_low"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "edge_low",
"detail": "The estimated edge does not meet the Primary threshold.",
"name": "Edge Below Threshold",
"short": "Edge Below Threshold",
"tone": "neutral"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.0% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "No clear Primary pick in unified decision",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (FK Tobol Kostanay).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"No clear Primary pick in unified decision"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2024,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 11.1,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.4
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.534,
"draw_prob": 0.2896,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4481,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.4
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"hero_display_only": true,
"implied_prob": 0.4897,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "hero_display",
"side": "over",
"slot": "hero_display"
},
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0312,
"ev": -0.1567,
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "FK Tobol Kostanay"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2471,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0003,
"market_prob": 0.5351,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.534,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2246,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": 0.0003,
"ev": -0.0791,
"implied_prob": 0.4649,
"model_prob": 0.466,
"p_final": 0.4651
},
"p_final": 0.5349,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.08,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2471,
"best_odd": 1.72,
"edge": -0.0003,
"ev": -0.08,
"implied_prob": 0.5351,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"p_final": 0.5349
}
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": 0.036,
"implied_prob": 0.5249,
"model_prob": 0.534,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0047,
"market_prob": 0.5027,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0047,
"ev": -0.0788,
"implied_prob": 0.5027,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.498
},
"p_final": 0.498,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0788,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2289,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": 0.0047,
"ev": -0.0612,
"implied_prob": 0.4973,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.502
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": -0.0077,
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4897,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1528090,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0604,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2623,
"draw": 0.2896,
"home": 0.4481
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4897,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0604,
"implied_prob": 0.4897,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Ulytau",
"home": "FK Tobol Kostanay"
},
"top_pick": null,
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1567,
"consensus_ev_display": "-15.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.78,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4481,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5617977528089888,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2024,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-20.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1528090,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T13:55:38.918104+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Kazajistán — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 58 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 24 | 17 | 6 | 1 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 42 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 41 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 35 |
| 7 | Zhenys | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 8 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | 31 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 31 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 11 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 24 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 23 |
| 13 | Kaisar | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 22 |
| 15 | Irtysh | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 20 |
| 16 | Altay | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 20 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kairat Almaty | 24 | 50 | 15 | +35 | 57 |
| 2 | Ordabasy | 25 | 48 | 18 | +30 | 58 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 24 | 41 | 25 | +16 | 45 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 24 | 37 | 32 | +5 | 42 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 25 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 41 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 24 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 35 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 24 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 31 |
| 8 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 25 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 24 |
| 9 | Kaspiy | 25 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 26 |
| 10 | Zhetysu | 25 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 22 |
| 11 | Zhenys | 25 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 32 |
| 12 | Ulytau | 24 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 31 |
| 13 | Irtysh | 23 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 20 |
| 14 | Kaisar | 25 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 23 |
| 15 | Altay | 24 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 20 |
| 16 | Atyrau | 24 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 23 |
