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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Alaniya Vladikavkaz Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
AI briefing is not available yet for this match. Run “Batch generate odds” again after upgrading the server to generate the summary.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "fa51d7f5c8704c015b60ce59219c5b1f818b916e8215589ed4146c81f64d1285",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3277,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2953,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3769,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"away_win_prob": 0.3277,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3277,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.463,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.537,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2953,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2953,
"fair_odds_away": 3.05,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.05,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.39,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.39,
"fair_odds_home": 2.65,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.65,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.3769,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3769,
"over_25_prob": 0.472,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.529
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Amkar",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Amkar"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Alaniya Vladikavkaz",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0242,
"edge_gap": 0.0495,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4015,
"model_prob": 0.3773,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.8,
"draw": 29.5,
"home": 37.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 2.24
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.24,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"display_market": "Alaniya Vladikavkaz Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.49,
"market_odds": 2.24,
"model_odds": 2.65,
"overround": 11.2,
"prob_edge": -6.9,
"value_pct": -15.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 16,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 16,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 46.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 53.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 53.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Draw",
"prob": 67.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Amkar",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Amkar",
"prob": 62.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Amkar",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 32.8,
"draw_pct": 29.5,
"home_pct": 37.7,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Alaniya Vladikavkaz"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.56,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 47.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 52.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.56,
"under_prob": 52.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"edge": 0.9,
"implied_prob": 29.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.5,
"odds": 3.42
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
}
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2134,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0824,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.2,
"text": "+8.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0824,
"over_prob": 47.1,
"sort_key": 10224.16,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 52.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0371,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.7,
"text": "+3.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1676,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.8,
"text": "-16.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0371,
"no_prob": 46.3,
"sort_key": 10033.39,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 53.7
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1242,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.4,
"text": "-12.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4015,
"max_ev": -0.0695,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -7.0,
"text": "-7.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3773,
"side_label": "Alaniya Vladikavkaz",
"sort_key": 1782.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1076,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1076.webp",
"away_team_name": "Amkar",
"country_code": "RU",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ru.svg",
"country_name": "Russia",
"fixture_id": 1526743,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Russia",
"home_team_id": 6787,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/6787.webp",
"home_team_name": "Alaniya Vladikavkaz",
"league_country": "Russia",
"league_id": 1026,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1026.webp",
"league_name": "Second League A - Division A Silver",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-06 10:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Vladikavkaz",
"venue_name": "Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4448,
"best_odd": 2.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0035,
"ev": -0.1099,
"implied_prob": 0.3356,
"model_prob": 0.3278,
"p_final": 0.3321
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2856,
"best_odd": 3.42,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0091,
"ev": -0.0695,
"implied_prob": 0.263,
"model_prob": 0.2949,
"p_final": 0.2721
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4337,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.4015,
"model_prob": 0.3773,
"p_final": 0.391
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.24,
"best_yes_odd": 1.55,
"edge_no": 0.0519,
"edge_yes": -0.0519,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0371,
"ev_yes": -0.1676,
"implied_no": 0.4111,
"implied_yes": 0.5889,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.0801,
"edge_under": 0.0791,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2134,
"ev_under": 0.0824,
"implied_over": 0.5511,
"implied_under": 0.4489,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.56,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0824,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.537,
"draw_prob": 0.2949,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3773,
"over_prob": 0.471,
"total_xg": 2.56,
"under_prob": 0.528,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0105,
"ev": -0.1242,
"implied_prob": 0.4015,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3773,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Alaniya Vladikavkaz"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0519,
"ev": 0.0371,
"implied_prob": 0.4111,
"model_prob": 0.463,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0791,
"ev": 0.0824,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"model_prob": 0.528,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1526743,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0824,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3278,
"draw": 0.2949,
"home": 0.3773
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Amkar",
"home": "Alaniya Vladikavkaz"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.0268,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0824,
"implied_prob": 0.4489,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.528,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1526743,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-06T18:08:54.024957+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
How to use this
- Focus on the Primary line when you want one actionable idea.
- Do not parlay many thin-edge picks together; edges do not add reliably.
- Treat longshots as optional, high-stake-sizing plays only.
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Second League A - Division A Silver — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| 2 | Kaluga | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Torpedo Miass | 14 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 20 |
| 4 | Irtysh Omsk | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Urozhay | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Avangard Kursk | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 |
| 8 | Murom | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaluga | 14 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 24 |
| 2 | Rodina Moskva II | 14 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 25 |
| 3 | Irtysh Omsk | 14 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 19 |
| 4 | Torpedo Miass | 14 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 20 |
| 5 | Urozhay | 14 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Avangard Kursk | 14 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 13 |
| 7 | Dinamo Vladivostok | 14 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
| 8 | Murom | 14 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 12 |
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