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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Evergreen Evergreen ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-5 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Evergreen win · Christos 1–5 Evergreen
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"bayes_applied": 0,
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"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.32,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"home_win_prob": 0.3014,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Christos or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Christos"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.031,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4358,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 29.4,
"home": 30.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.04
}
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"risk_color": null,
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.29,
"market_odds": 2.04,
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"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -8.5,
"value_pct": -17.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
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"away_played": 8,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
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"home_played": 9,
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"pick": "No",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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"scores": [
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{
"away": 1,
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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"source": "xG"
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"options": [
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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"pick_key": "12",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
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"home_team": "Christos",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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{
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{
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"kind": "1x2_a",
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"movement": [
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"implied_early_pct": 33.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
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{
"closing": 3.93,
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"implied_closing_pct": 22.62,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
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{
"closing": 2.04,
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
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},
"home_xg": 1.19,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -32.5,
"text": "-32.5%"
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"ev_under": 0.4918,
"ev_under_display": {
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"raw_pct": 49.2,
"text": "+25%+"
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"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 48.2,
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"ev_no": 0.374,
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"raw_pct": 37.4,
"text": "+25%+"
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"ev_yes": -0.252,
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"raw_pct": -25.2,
"text": "-25.2%"
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"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"sort_key": 10336.6,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
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"ev_display": {
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"text": "-13.8%"
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"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4358,
"max_ev": -0.0392,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.9,
"text": "-3.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side_label": "Evergreen",
"sort_key": 1790.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth": "6/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"alert_team": "Christos",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.82,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
"market_team": "Evergreen",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Evergreen",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.66,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Christos",
"market_prob": 33.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.82,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.16,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Evergreen",
"market_prob": 43.58,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.03,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.23,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 19.03,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.77,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.08,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 68.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.08,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 31.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.62,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Christos"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 6.82,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Evergreen",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 43.6,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "Both lean Evergreen, but the market prices them higher (43.6% vs model 40.4%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.82,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Christos odds lengthened \u2191 +13.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Christos has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Drift away from Christos \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"However, Christos has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Christos \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"At the same time, Christos has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 6.82,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -3.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Christos",
"market_prob_pct": 33.8,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.82,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.62,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Evergreen",
"market_prob_pct": 43.58,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Christos \u2014 odds lengthened by 13.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Evergreen (43.6%).",
"However, Christos has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +13.4%, 6/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Evergreen, Market \u2192 Evergreen, Recent sharp money \u2192 Christos.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.45,
"closing_odds": 3.93,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.45,
"entry_odds": 3.93,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
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"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
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"status": "active"
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{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 13.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 58m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Christos (13.4%, 6/10) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "2.80 \u2192 2.36 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 58m",
"pick_team": "Christos",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.36"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,3.9 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Christos \u2191 +13.4% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Christos",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Christos \u2191 +13.4% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +13.4%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Christos",
"steam_score": 64,
"steam_team_name": "Christos",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 4049,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4049.webp",
"away_team_name": "Evergreen",
"country_code": "US",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1524948,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_id": 9041,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9041.webp",
"home_team_name": "Christos",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_id": 256,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/256.webp",
"league_name": "USL League Two",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-17 23:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4291,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1381,
"implied_prob": 0.4358,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4225
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2695,
"best_odd": 3.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0183,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.2262,
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2445
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4251,
"best_odd": 2.63,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0157,
"ev": -0.1522,
"implied_prob": 0.338,
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.3223
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 3.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.38,
"edge_no": 0.1408,
"edge_yes": -0.1408,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.374,
"ev_yes": -0.252,
"implied_no": 0.3172,
"implied_yes": 0.6828,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.4,
"best_under_odd": 2.88,
"edge_over": -0.1903,
"edge_under": 0.1903,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3252,
"ev_under": 0.4918,
"implied_over": 0.6723,
"implied_under": 0.3277,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4918,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0133,
"ev": -0.1381,
"implied_prob": 0.4358,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Evergreen"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1408,
"ev": 0.374,
"implied_prob": 0.3172,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1903,
"ev": 0.4918,
"implied_prob": 0.3277,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1524948,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4918,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.374,
"implied_prob": 0.3172,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.374,
"implied_prob": 0.3172,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Evergreen",
"home": "Christos"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.178327,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4918,
"implied_prob": 0.3277,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1524948,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T22:59:33.480555+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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