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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 North Carolina II North Carolina Fusion ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.73
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
North Carolina Fusion win · North Carolina II 0–1 North Carolina Fusion
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"afp_home_win_prob": 0.4009,
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"bayes_applied": 1,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.18,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "North Carolina Fusion"
},
"away_xg": 1.26,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.122,
"edge_gap": 0.0871,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 1.73
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"market_odds": 1.73,
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"prob_edge": -17.6,
"value_pct": -30.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
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"away_played": 7,
"away_score_rate": 71.6,
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"home_played": 7,
"home_score_rate": 73.8,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
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"correct_score": {
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{
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{
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"prob": 10.0
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 9.4
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 8.4
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{
"away": 2,
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"source": "xG"
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"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"key": "1X",
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or North Carolina Fusion",
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"pick_key": "12",
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"draw_pct": 28.5,
"home_pct": 40.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "North Carolina II"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 16.2,
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"label": "Away",
"market": "North Carolina Fusion Win",
"model_prob": 31.4,
"odds": 3.7
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},
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"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
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{
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"movement": [
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{
"closing": 3.9,
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{
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{
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{
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"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.34,
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"market_cards": [
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -30.6,
"text": "-30.6%"
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"ev_under": 0.3986,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 39.9,
"text": "+25%+"
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"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": 19.2,
"text": "+19.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.5,
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"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1983,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": -19.8,
"text": "-19.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5232,
"max_ev": -0.0257,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4012,
"side_label": "North Carolina II",
"sort_key": 1793.575,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 12.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.23,
"hero_label": "North Carolina II",
"market_prob_pct": 52.3,
"market_team": "North Carolina II",
"model_prob_pct": 40.1,
"model_team": "North Carolina II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.23,
"fair_prob": 40.09,
"label": "North Carolina II",
"market_prob": 52.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.29,
"fair_prob": 28.5,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.21,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.93,
"fair_prob": 31.4,
"label": "North Carolina Fusion",
"market_prob": 24.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.09,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 65.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.09,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 34.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.12,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 64.62,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 10.12,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 35.38,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.09,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "North Carolina II",
"market_prob_pct": 52.32,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "North Carolina II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.23,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "North Carolina II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 52.3,
"model_prob_pct": 40.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean North Carolina II, but the market prices them higher (52.3% vs model 40.1%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.23,
"hero_label": "North Carolina II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that North Carolina II is the dominant side.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about North Carolina II than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about North Carolina II than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about North Carolina II than the current fair estimate.",
"Current market behavior suggests broad agreement that North Carolina II is the dominant side."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors North Carolina II more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Pricing has been stable with broad sportsbook participation, suggesting settled consensus.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on North Carolina II (pricing gap 12.2 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 12.23,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.7 pp (at 40.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.7,
"max_prob_pct": 40.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.23,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.09,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "North Carolina II",
"market_prob_pct": 52.32,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.21,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "North Carolina Fusion",
"market_prob_pct": 24.47,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about North Carolina II than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers North Carolina II (52.3%).",
"Both lean North Carolina II, but the market prices them higher (52.3% vs model 40.1%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 57.8,
"closing_odds": 1.73,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 57.8,
"entry_odds": 1.73,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 1.73,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.73,
"pick_team": "North Carolina II",
"steam_score": 22,
"steam_team_name": "North Carolina II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 12.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 4066,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4066.webp",
"away_team_name": "North Carolina Fusion",
"country_code": "US",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1524892,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_id": 4067,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4067.webp",
"home_team_name": "North Carolina II",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_id": 256,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/256.webp",
"league_name": "USL League Two",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 22:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2687,
"best_odd": 3.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0257,
"implied_prob": 0.2447,
"model_prob": 0.3142,
"p_final": 0.2633
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2764,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0145,
"ev": -0.0382,
"implied_prob": 0.2321,
"model_prob": 0.2846,
"p_final": 0.2466
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4902,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0598,
"ev": -0.1983,
"implied_prob": 0.5232,
"model_prob": 0.4012,
"p_final": 0.4634
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.62,
"best_yes_odd": 1.44,
"edge_no": 0.1012,
"edge_yes": -0.1012,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1921,
"ev_yes": -0.2152,
"implied_no": 0.3538,
"implied_yes": 0.6462,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.44,
"best_under_odd": 2.7,
"edge_over": -0.1709,
"edge_under": 0.1709,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3059,
"ev_under": 0.3986,
"implied_over": 0.6529,
"implied_under": 0.3471,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3986,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2846,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4012,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0598,
"ev": -0.1983,
"implied_prob": 0.5232,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4012,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "North Carolina II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1012,
"ev": 0.1921,
"implied_prob": 0.3538,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1709,
"ev": 0.3986,
"implied_prob": 0.3471,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1524892,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3986,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3142,
"draw": 0.2846,
"home": 0.4012
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1921,
"implied_prob": 0.3538,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1921,
"implied_prob": 0.3538,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "North Carolina Fusion",
"home": "North Carolina II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.144532,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3986,
"implied_prob": 0.3471,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1524892,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T21:59:11.246198+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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