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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Johvi Phoenix Johvi Phoenix ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.03
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Johvi Phoenix win · Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 2–3 Johvi Phoenix
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3801,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.63,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 3.09,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.24,
"home_win_prob": 0.3239,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 or draw and +1.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21"
},
"away_xg": 1.36,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Johvi Phoenix",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0234,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3569,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.49
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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"best_odds": 2.49,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Johvi Phoenix Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.8,
"market_odds": 2.49,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -2.1,
"value_pct": -5.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 74.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 71.1,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.36,
"home_expected": 1.24,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 or Draw",
"prob": 62.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 or Johvi Phoenix",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Johvi Phoenix",
"prob": 67.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 or Johvi Phoenix",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.0,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Johvi Phoenix"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.2,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.8,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 28.2,
"implied_prob": 23.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 4.33
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Johvi Phoenix",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.69,
"draw": 20.53,
"home": 43.78
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-10 14:59:39",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-10 14:30:08",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.78,
"gap_pp": -11.41,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 20.53,
"gap_pp": 9.07,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.69,
"gap_pp": 2.34,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 38.03
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.03,
"early": 2.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.33,
"early": 4.33,
"implied_closing_pct": 20.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 20.53,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.49,
"early": 2.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.69,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.69,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 5.8,
"ev": 0.875,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 15.0,
"market_prob": 0.0667,
"market_prob_pct": 6.7,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.24,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 5.5,
"edge": 0.028,
"edge_pp": 2.8,
"market_prob": 0.1679,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 1.11,
"edge": -0.0433,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.8321,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7888
},
"p_final": 0.1959,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 35.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.849,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0776,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 5.5,
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": 0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.1679,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.1959
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4505,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -45.1,
"text": "-45.1%"
},
"ev_under": 1.849,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 184.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.849,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 11814.1,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 5.2,
"edge": 0.0222,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"market_prob": 0.1785,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 5.2,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": 0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.1785,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.2007
},
"p_final": 0.2007,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 27.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.3712,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0437,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1445,
"best_odd": 1.13,
"edge": -0.0401,
"ev": -0.117,
"implied_prob": 0.8215,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.7814
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 1.3986,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 139.9,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3526,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -35.3,
"text": "-35.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 1.3986,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 11258.74,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0859,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.6,
"text": "-8.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0434,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.3,
"text": "-4.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0531,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Johvi Phoenix",
"sort_key": 1789.15,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 11.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.39,
"hero_label": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"market_team": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Johvi Phoenix",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01849,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01849,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Johvi Phoenix at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Johvi Phoenix as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Johvi Phoenix",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.8% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.8% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0859,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0531,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (11 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 19.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 11.39,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 11.39,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.36,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.24,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.24 \u00b7 Away xG 1.36 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01849,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01849,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Johvi Phoenix at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Johvi Phoenix as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Johvi Phoenix",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.8% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.8% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0859,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0531,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 1.24 xG vs Johvi Phoenix 1.36 \u2192 Johvi Phoenix 38.0%",
"Market: Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 ~35.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Johvi Phoenix with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -11.39,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"market_prob": 43.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.06,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 20.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.32,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Johvi Phoenix",
"market_prob": 35.69,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -34.44,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 82.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 34.44,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 17.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -26.55,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 80.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 26.55,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 19.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -11.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 43.78,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21\u0027s win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 11.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 11.39,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Johvi Phoenix",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.3,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 22,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 30,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 1.24 xG vs Johvi Phoenix 1.36 \u2192 Johvi Phoenix 38.0%",
"Market: Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 ~35.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Johvi Phoenix with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -11.39,
"hero_label": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 than the current fair estimate.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 than the current fair estimate."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks.",
"The market materially disagrees with the model on Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 (pricing gap 11.4 pp). The market may be pricing squad quality, tournament context, or lineup strength beyond the Elo framework."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 11.39,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"largest_gap_pp": -11.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 11.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -11.39,
"edge_pp": -11.39,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"market_prob_pct": 43.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 9.06,
"edge_pp": 9.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 20.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.32,
"edge_pp": 2.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Johvi Phoenix",
"market_prob_pct": 35.69,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "The market is materially more optimistic about Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 than the current fair estimate.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 (35.7%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Johvi Phoenix, Market \u2192 Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.26,
"closing_odds": 2.03,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.26,
"entry_odds": 2.03,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 2.1,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.1,
"pick_team": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"steam_score": 20,
"steam_team_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 11.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "johvi-phoenix",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Johvi Phoenix",
"away_team_id": 24237,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/24237.webp",
"away_team_name": "Johvi Phoenix",
"away_team_public_id": "5EskW1OTAkFrIp",
"away_team_slug": "johvi-phoenix",
"country_code": "EE",
"country_display_name": "Estonia",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ee.svg",
"country_id": 50,
"country_name": "Estonia",
"fixture_id": 1521685,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Estonia",
"home_team_display_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"home_team_id": 25403,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/25403.webp",
"home_team_name": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21",
"home_team_public_id": "3Jm5CYlNsY4Kz8",
"home_team_slug": "parnu-jk-vaprus-u21",
"ht.home_team_slug": "parnu-jk-vaprus-u21",
"league_country": "Estonia",
"league_country_display": "Estonia",
"league_display_name": "Esiliiga B",
"league_id": 1126,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1126.webp",
"league_name": "Esiliiga B",
"league_public_id": "0lsM7UcBife0Bl",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-10 15:00:00",
"public_id": "0DAz2SC25utrE9",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4342,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0859,
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3569,
"draw": 0.2053,
"home": 0.4378
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.3671
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1728,
"best_odd": 4.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0157,
"ev": -0.0434,
"implied_prob": 0.2053,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3569,
"draw": 0.2053,
"home": 0.4378
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2209
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.373,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0426,
"ev": -0.1976,
"implied_prob": 0.4378,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3569,
"draw": 0.2053,
"home": 0.4378
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.3953
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": -0.0213,
"ev": -0.053,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.3803
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.33,
"edge": 0.065,
"ev": 0.2814,
"implied_prob": 0.2309,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.1689,
"ev": -0.3429,
"implied_prob": 0.4926,
"model_prob": 0.3237
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1445,
"best_no_odd": 5.26,
"best_yes_odd": 1.19,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2655,
"edge_yes": -0.2655,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 1.3986,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.0437,
"ev_yes": -0.3526,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.117,
"implied_no": 0.1905,
"implied_yes": 0.8095,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 5.2,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": 0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.1785,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.2007
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1445,
"best_odd": 1.13,
"edge": -0.0401,
"ev": -0.117,
"implied_prob": 0.8215,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.7814
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.2007,
"p_final_yes": 0.7814,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1238,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.14,
"best_under_odd": 5.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 5.5,
"edge_over": -0.3444,
"edge_under": 0.3444,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4505,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1245,
"ev_under": 1.849,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0776,
"implied_over": 0.8264,
"implied_over_mf": 0.8321,
"implied_under": 0.1736,
"implied_under_mf": 0.1679,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 1.11,
"edge": -0.0433,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.8321,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7888
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 5.5,
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": 0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.1679,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.1959
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7888,
"p_final_under": 0.1959,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.849,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.849,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.849,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 11.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 11.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.01849,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.01849,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 22,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Johvi Phoenix at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Johvi Phoenix as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.3,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Johvi Phoenix",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.8% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.8% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "22 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21, but the model still strongly favours Johvi Phoenix.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0859,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0531,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0102,
"ev": -0.0859,
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Johvi Phoenix"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 5.2,
"edge": 0.0222,
"market_prob": 0.1785,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 5.2,
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": 0.0437,
"implied_prob": 0.1785,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.2007
},
"p_final": 0.2007,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0437,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1445,
"best_odd": 1.13,
"edge": -0.0401,
"ev": -0.117,
"implied_prob": 0.8215,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.7814
}
},
"edge": 0.2655,
"ev": 1.3986,
"implied_prob": 0.1905,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 5.5,
"edge": 0.028,
"market_prob": 0.1679,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1238,
"best_odd": 1.11,
"edge": -0.0433,
"ev": -0.1245,
"implied_prob": 0.8321,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7888
},
"p_final": 0.1959,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0776,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 5.5,
"edge": 0.028,
"ev": 0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.1679,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.1959
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.3444,
"ev": 1.849,
"implied_prob": 0.1736,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1521685,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.849,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3803,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3237
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.3986,
"implied_prob": 0.1905,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.3986,
"implied_prob": 0.1905,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Johvi Phoenix",
"home": "Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.670447,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.849,
"implied_prob": 0.1736,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0859,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.49,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3569,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4016064257028112,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0531,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1521685,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-10T14:59:41.902375+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Esiliiga B — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narva Sub-21 | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 63 |
| 2 | Levadia Sub-19 | 30 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 56 |
| 3 | Phoenix | 30 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 54 |
| 4 | Tulevik | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 47 |
| 4 | Johvi Phoenix | 19 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 34 |
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 30 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 47 |
| 6 | Luunja | 30 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 47 |
| 7 | Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 | 30 | 14 | 4 | 12 | 46 |
| 8 | JK Tabasalu | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 33 |
| 9 | Tallinna Kalev II | 30 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 26 |
| 10 | Legion | 30 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 13 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parnu JK Vaprus Sub-21 | 30 | 95 | 62 | +33 | 46 |
| 2 | Tulevik | 30 | 80 | 61 | +19 | 47 |
| 3 | Levadia Sub-19 | 30 | 75 | 52 | +23 | 56 |
| 4 | Luunja | 30 | 74 | 63 | +11 | 47 |
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 30 | 72 | 58 | +14 | 47 |
| 6 | Narva Sub-21 | 30 | 71 | 36 | +35 | 63 |
| 7 | Phoenix | 30 | 71 | 68 | +3 | 54 |
| 8 | Tallinna Kalev II | 30 | 60 | 77 | -17 | 26 |
| 9 | Johvi Phoenix | 19 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 34 |
| 10 | JK Tabasalu | 30 | 44 | 81 | -37 | 33 |
| 11 | Legion | 30 | 29 | 113 | -84 | 13 |
