Estadísticas / Fútbol / Brasil. Serie B de Brasil / Athletic Club vs Operário-PR

Athletic Club vs Operário-PR Statistics & Analysis

Jul 07, 2026 - 23:00
0 2.31
1 1.12
xG Accuracy: 51%
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse

Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
  • 1X2 Athletic Club Operário-PR ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 0-1 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1615496

Closing Odds 2.6
AI Fair Odds 1.59
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Operário-PR win · Athletic Club 0–1 Operário-PR
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 62.9%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando Athletic Club (1X2),Más de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Más de 2,5 goles en unos 31.4 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado Modelo % Implícita cierre % Brecha (pp)
Athletic Club (1X2) 62.9 37.0 +25.9
Dibujar (1X2) 21.1 31.9 -10.8
Operário-PR (1X2) 16.1 31.1 -15.0
Más de 2,5 goles 66.6 35.1 +31.4
Menos de 2,5 goles 33.4 64.8 -31.4
Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 66.6% en Más de 2,5 goles, mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 35.1%. La diferencia —unos 31.4 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea
Mercado Temprano (PRE30) Cierre (PRE1) Δ implícita (pp)
Athletic Club (1X2) 2.6 2.6 0.0
Dibujar (1X2) 3.02 3.02 0.0
Operário-PR (1X2) 3.1 3.1 0.0
Más de 2,5 goles 2.73 2.73 0.0
Menos de 2,5 goles 1.48 1.48 0.0

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "30104db441554826affeb0ba461eb9bfd23730fcd209af847c3c5de23b12d692",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.2.1",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.12,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1604,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.382,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.618,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2105,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 6.23,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.75,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.59,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.31,
      "home_win_prob": 0.629,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.666,
      "prediction_confidence": "low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.334
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Athletic Club or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Athletic Club",
      "percent_away": "30%",
      "percent_draw": "35%",
      "percent_home": "35%",
      "winner_name": "Athletic Club"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.12,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Athletic Club",
      "confidence": 62.9,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : Athletic Club",
        "edge": 0.2585,
        "edge_gap": 0.4184,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.3704,
        "model_prob": 0.6289,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 16.1,
          "draw": 21.1,
          "home": 62.9
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Athletic Club"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.6
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 2.6,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Athletic Club Win",
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.7,
        "market_odds": 2.6,
        "model_odds": 1.59,
        "overround": 3.8,
        "prob_edge": 24.4,
        "value_pct": 63.5,
        "value_rating": "strong_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 7,
        "away_failed_to_score": 4,
        "away_played": 15,
        "away_score_rate": 67.4,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 3,
        "home_played": 15,
        "home_score_rate": 90.1,
        "no_prob": 38.2,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 61.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 61.8
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.12,
        "home_expected": 2.31,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-0",
            "prob": 8.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 8.4
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 7.5
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 3,
            "label": "3-1",
            "prob": 7.5
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Athletic Club or Draw",
            "prob": 84.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Athletic Club or Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
            "prob": 78.9
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
            "prob": 37.1
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Athletic Club or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 84.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 16.0,
        "draw_pct": 21.1,
        "home_pct": 62.9,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Athletic Club"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "-3.5",
        "avg_total": 3.43,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "over_prob": 66.6,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 66.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.43,
        "under_prob": 33.4
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 63.5,
        "implied_prob": 38.5,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Athletic Club Win",
        "model_prob": 62.9,
        "odds": 2.6
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 31.07,
        "draw": 31.89,
        "home": 37.04
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Athletic Club",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 37.04,
          "gap_pp": 25.85,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 62.89
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 31.89,
          "gap_pp": -10.84,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 21.05
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 31.07,
          "gap_pp": -15.02,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 16.05
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 35.15,
          "gap_pp": 31.45,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 66.6
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 64.85,
          "gap_pp": -31.45,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 33.4
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 2.6,
          "early": 2.6,
          "implied_closing_pct": 37.04,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 37.04,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.02,
          "early": 3.02,
          "implied_closing_pct": 31.89,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 31.89,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.1,
          "early": 3.1,
          "implied_closing_pct": 31.07,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 31.07,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.73,
          "early": 2.73,
          "implied_closing_pct": 35.15,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 35.15,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.48,
          "early": 1.48,
          "implied_closing_pct": 64.85,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 64.85,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 31.4,
        "kind": "ou_o"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 9.7
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 2.31,
    "homepage_pick": {
      "best_bookmaker": "Betano",
      "best_odds": 2.6,
      "confidence": "strong",
      "display_label": "Home Athletic Club",
      "edge": 24.4,
      "ev": 63.5,
      "probability": 62.9
    },
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1483,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 14.8,
          "text": "+14.8%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.3704,
        "max_ev": 0.1483,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 14.8,
          "text": "+14.8%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.6289,
        "side_label": "Athletic Club",
        "sort_key": 10283.47,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": false,
        "ev_over": null,
        "ev_over_display": null,
        "ev_under": null,
        "ev_under_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": null,
        "over_prob": 66.6,
        "sort_key": 4050.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "under_prob": 33.4,
        "value_side": "over"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": false,
        "ev_no": null,
        "ev_no_display": null,
        "ev_yes": null,
        "ev_yes_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": null,
        "no_prob": 38.2,
        "sort_key": 4050.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 61.8
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 809.1,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 9.7
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "10/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +8.5%",
        "alert_team": "Athletic Club",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 25.9,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 25.86,
        "hero_label": "Athletic Club",
        "market_prob_pct": 37.0,
        "market_team": "Athletic Club",
        "model_prob_pct": 62.9,
        "model_team": "Athletic Club",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 58,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "market_disagree",
            "read_min": 5,
            "title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
            "url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "evidence": {
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "Statistical edge detected",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2717",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Market strongly disagrees",
              "status": "fail"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam supports model side",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (26 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Steam aligns with model",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 12.1,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 7.7,
            "steam_coherence": 10.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 61,
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "suppress_execution": true,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Execution Confidence",
            "score": 39,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Model Value",
            "score": 46,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "wait",
            "label": "Wait"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "icon": "\u23f8",
          "label": "Wait for validation",
          "tier": "wait"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Athletic Club 2.31 xG vs Oper\u00e1rio-PR 1.12 \u2192 Athletic Club 62.9%",
            "Market: Athletic Club ~37.0% implied",
            "Steam: Athletic Club \u2191 +8.5%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model leans Athletic Club, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 25.86,
          "fair_prob": 62.9,
          "label": "Athletic Club",
          "market_prob": 37.04,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -10.84,
          "fair_prob": 21.05,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 31.89,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -15.03,
          "fair_prob": 16.04,
          "label": "Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
          "market_prob": 31.07,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 66.6,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 33.4,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 61.8,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 38.2,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 25.86,
        "fair_prob_pct": 62.9,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Athletic Club",
        "market_prob_pct": 37.04,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Athletic Club"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Athletic Club\u0027s win probability at 62.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 37.0%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 25.86,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Athletic Club",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 37.0,
          "model_prob_pct": 62.9,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Athletic Club, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Execution Confidence",
              "score": 39,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Model Value",
              "score": 46,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "wait",
              "label": "Wait"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Athletic Club 2.31 xG vs Oper\u00e1rio-PR 1.12 \u2192 Athletic Club 62.9%",
              "Market: Athletic Club ~37.0% implied",
              "Steam: Athletic Club \u2191 +8.5%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model leans Athletic Club, but market pricing diverges by 26 pp.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 25.86,
        "hero_label": "Athletic Club",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Athletic Club odds lengthened \u2191 +8.5%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 25.86,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 41.8 pp (at 62.9%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 41.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 62.9,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "extreme",
          "largest_gap_label": "Athletic Club",
          "largest_gap_pp": 25.9,
          "lead": "The model rates Athletic Club considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "extreme",
          "max_gap_pp": 25.9,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": 25.86,
            "edge_pp": 25.86,
            "fair_prob_pct": 62.9,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Athletic Club",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.04,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "model_edge",
            "signal_label": "Model Edge"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -10.84,
            "edge_pp": -10.84,
            "fair_prob_pct": 21.05,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.89,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -15.03,
            "edge_pp": -15.03,
            "fair_prob_pct": 16.04,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.07,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Athletic Club (37.0%).",
          "However, Athletic Club has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +8.5%, 10/13).",
          "Model and market lean the same side on Athletic Club, but pricing gaps warrant caution."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
        "closing_odds": 2.6,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
        "entry_odds": 2.6,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 8.5
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 32,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betano",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.4%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 7.4
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 9,
            "bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 6.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.8
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 2,
            "bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 11,
            "bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.5
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 36,
            "bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 4.3
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 1,
            "bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.2%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 4.2
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 21,
            "bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 2.1
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 2.1
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.55,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
        "move_pct_abs": 8.5,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 22m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Athletic Club (8.5%, 10/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 8.5,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "2.60",
            "2.48",
            "2.35"
          ],
          "display": "2.60 \u2192 2.25 \u2192 2.55",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h 22m",
          "pick_team": "Athletic Club",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.60"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.25"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.55"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            2.35,
            2.6,
            2.55
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.6",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.35"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "2.35"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "2.60"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.55"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 2.35,
        "page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 10/13 sportsbooks on Athletic Club",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Athletic Club",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 58,
        "steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "B",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "current_odds": 2.55,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +8.5%",
        "open_odds": 2.35,
        "pick_team": "Athletic Club",
        "steam_score": 58,
        "steam_team_name": "Athletic Club",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 25.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_id": 1223,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1223.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
      "country_code": "BR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
      "country_name": "Brazil",
      "fixture_id": 1520750,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Brazil",
      "home_team_id": 13975,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/13975.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Athletic Club",
      "league_country": "Brazil",
      "league_id": 72,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
      "league_name": "Serie B de Brasil",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-07-07 23:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Minas Gerais",
      "venue_name": null
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2324,
            "best_odd": 3.1,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0349,
            "ev": -0.1451,
            "implied_prob": 0.3107,
            "model_prob": 0.1605,
            "p_final": 0.2758
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2512,
            "best_odd": 3.02,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0272,
            "ev": -0.1191,
            "implied_prob": 0.3189,
            "model_prob": 0.2105,
            "p_final": 0.2917
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2755,
            "best_odd": 2.6,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0712,
            "ev": 0.1483,
            "implied_prob": 0.3704,
            "model_prob": 0.6289,
            "p_final": 0.4416
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.43,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.1"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.1483,
      "confidence": 7.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
        ],
        "guard_capped": true,
        "score": 3.0,
        "score_before_guard": 7.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.618,
          "draw_prob": 0.2105,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6289,
          "over_prob": 0.666,
          "total_xg": 3.43,
          "under_prob": 0.334,
          "xg_diff": 1.19
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "guard_active": true,
      "guard_level": "extreme",
      "guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "guard_blocked",
          "decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0712,
          "ev": 0.1483,
          "guard_blocked": true,
          "implied_prob": 0.3704,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.6289,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Athletic Club"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.618,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.666,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1520750,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.1483,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1605,
        "draw": 0.2105,
        "home": 0.6289
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Oper\u00e1rio-PR",
        "home": "Athletic Club"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.111919,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1483,
        "implied_prob": 0.3704,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.6289,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "home",
        "side_label": "Athletic Club",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1520750,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-07-07T22:59:06.856762+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Obtén predicciones premium para Athletic Club & Operário-PR!

Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.

Suscríbete ahora
Volver a Estadísticas
Serie B de Brasil Serie B de Brasil — Clasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 Juventude 31 16 8 7 56
2 Vila Nova 30 16 6 8 54
3 Novorizontino 31 15 9 7 54
4 Criciúma 31 15 8 8 53
5 Fortaleza EC 31 14 11 6 53
6 Atlético Goianiense 31 14 10 7 52
7 CRB 31 14 6 11 48
8 Operário-PR 31 13 9 9 48
9 Sport Recife 31 12 11 8 47
10 Cuiabá 31 11 13 7 46
11 São Bernardo 31 12 9 10 45
12 Goiás 31 12 6 13 42
13 Náutico 31 11 9 11 42
14 Athletic Club 31 10 12 9 42
15 Ceará 31 10 9 12 39
16 Botafogo-SP 30 9 8 13 35
17 Avaí 31 8 6 17 30
18 Londrina 31 7 7 17 28
19 América Mineiro 31 4 5 22 17
20 Ponte Preta 31 3 4 24 13
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 Novorizontino 31 52 27 +25 54
2 CRB 31 46 44 +2 48
3 Vila Nova 30 43 31 +12 54
4 São Bernardo 31 43 32 +11 45
5 Operário-PR 31 43 41 +2 48
6 Sport Recife 31 42 33 +9 47
7 Atlético Goianiense 31 39 27 +12 52
8 Náutico 31 39 38 +1 42
9 Londrina 31 39 45 -6 28
10 Athletic Club 31 37 35 +2 42
11 Fortaleza EC 31 36 27 +9 53
12 Juventude 31 35 19 +16 56
13 Botafogo-SP 30 34 36 -2 35
14 Ceará 31 34 39 -5 39
15 Criciúma 31 33 27 +6 53
16 Cuiabá 31 32 25 +7 46
17 Goiás 31 30 39 -9 42
18 Avaí 31 30 42 -12 30
19 América Mineiro 31 21 52 -31 17
20 Ponte Preta 31 17 66 -49 13
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Novorizontino 31 17.2 9.2 +8.0 54
2 Fortaleza EC 31 16.8 10.1 +6.7 53
3 Cuiabá 31 12.3 7.0 +5.3 46
4 Atlético Goianiense 31 15.2 11.1 +4.1 52
5 Avaí 31 11.9 8.5 +3.4 30
6 Vila Nova 30 13.3 10.1 +3.2 54
7 CRB 31 18.6 15.8 +2.8 48
8 Juventude 31 10.2 8.0 +2.2 56
9 Criciúma 31 10.0 8.1 +1.9 53
10 Sport Recife 31 13.7 12.6 +1.1 47
11 Londrina 31 10.4 9.6 +0.8 28
12 São Bernardo 31 12.6 12.6 0.0 45
13 Botafogo-SP 30 13.7 13.8 -0.1 35
14 Náutico 31 15.3 16.1 -0.8 42
15 Goiás 31 11.8 13.1 -1.3 42
16 Operário-PR 31 12.8 16.2 -3.4 48
17 Ceará 31 9.1 14.2 -5.1 39
18 América Mineiro 31 11.7 16.9 -5.2 17
19 Athletic Club 31 11.9 19.2 -7.3 42
20 Ponte Preta 31 8.7 24.8 -16.1 13