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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Atletico Goianiense Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 3-1, 2-0, 1-1, 3-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrect
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.151,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.335,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.665,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.1881,
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"fair_odds_away": 6.62,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 5.32,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.51,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.61,
"home_win_prob": 0.6609,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.738,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.263
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or CRB",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Atletico Goianiense",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "CRB"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Atletico Goianiense",
"confidence": 66.1,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Atletico Goianiense",
"edge": 0.2333,
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"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 18.8,
"home": 66.1
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Atletico Goianiense"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.25
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.25,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Atletico Goianiense Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.34,
"market_odds": 2.25,
"model_odds": 1.51,
"overround": 3.8,
"prob_edge": 21.8,
"value_pct": 49.0,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 12,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 3,
"home_played": 12,
"home_score_rate": 92.6,
"no_prob": 33.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 66.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 66.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 2.61,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 6.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Atletico Goianiense or Draw",
"prob": 84.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Atletico Goianiense or CRB",
"prob": 81.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or CRB",
"prob": 33.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Atletico Goianiense or Draw",
"pick_prob": 84.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 15.1,
"draw_pct": 18.8,
"home_pct": 66.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Atletico Goianiense"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.84,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.84,
"under_prob": 26.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Home",
"market": "Atletico Goianiense Win",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "CRB",
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Atletico Goianiense",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 66.14
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.1,
"gap_pp": -10.33,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 18.77
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.08,
"gap_pp": -13.0,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 15.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.37,
"gap_pp": 30.43,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 73.8
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.63,
"gap_pp": -30.43,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 26.2
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.25,
"early": 2.25,
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"implied_early_pct": 42.81,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.31,
"early": 3.31,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.1,
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"implied_early_pct": 29.1,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.43,
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"implied_early_pct": 28.08,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.22,
"early": 2.22,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.37,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
"early": 1.7,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.63,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.63,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 30.4,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.0
}
},
"home_xg": 2.61,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6384,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 63.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.5546,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -55.5,
"text": "-55.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 73.8,
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"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 26.2,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3635,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -36.4,
"text": "-36.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2702,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 27.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2702,
"no_prob": 33.5,
"sort_key": 10243.18,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 66.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1168,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.7,
"text": "+11.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"max_ev": 0.1168,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.7,
"text": "+11.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6614,
"side_label": "Atletico Goianiense",
"sort_key": 10105.12,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 807.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 23.3,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 23.28,
"hero_label": "Atletico Goianiense",
"market_prob_pct": 42.8,
"market_team": "Atletico Goianiense",
"model_prob_pct": 66.1,
"model_team": "Atletico Goianiense",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 23.28,
"fair_prob": 66.09,
"label": "Atletico Goianiense",
"market_prob": 42.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.29,
"fair_prob": 18.81,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.1,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.98,
"fair_prob": 15.1,
"label": "CRB",
"market_prob": 28.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 30.04,
"fair_prob": 73.8,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.76,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -30.04,
"fair_prob": 26.2,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.24,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.69,
"fair_prob": 66.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.81,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.69,
"fair_prob": 33.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.19,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 23.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 66.09,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Atletico Goianiense",
"market_prob_pct": 42.81,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Atletico Goianiense"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 23.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Atletico Goianiense",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 42.8,
"model_prob_pct": 66.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Model and market lean the same side on Atletico Goianiense, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 23.28,
"hero_label": "Atletico Goianiense",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 23.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 47.3 pp (at 66.1%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 47.3,
"max_prob_pct": 66.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 23.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 66.09,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atletico Goianiense",
"market_prob_pct": 42.81,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -10.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.81,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.1,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 15.1,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "CRB",
"market_prob_pct": 28.08,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atletico Goianiense (42.8%).",
"Model and market lean the same side on Atletico Goianiense, but pricing gaps warrant caution."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 44.44,
"closing_odds": 2.25,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 44.44,
"entry_odds": 2.25,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Atletico Goianiense",
"steam_score": 16,
"steam_team_name": "Atletico Goianiense",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 23.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 146,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/146.webp",
"away_team_name": "CRB",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1520721,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_id": 144,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/144.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atletico Goianiense",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_id": 72,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/72.webp",
"league_name": "Serie B",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 22:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2415,
"best_odd": 3.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0314,
"ev": -0.1444,
"implied_prob": 0.2808,
"model_prob": 0.1509,
"p_final": 0.2495
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2535,
"best_odd": 3.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0262,
"ev": -0.1234,
"implied_prob": 0.291,
"model_prob": 0.1877,
"p_final": 0.2648
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2925,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0682,
"ev": 0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"model_prob": 0.6614,
"p_final": 0.4964
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.9,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"edge_no": -0.1669,
"edge_yes": 0.1669,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3635,
"ev_yes": 0.2702,
"implied_no": 0.5019,
"implied_yes": 0.4981,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.22,
"best_under_odd": 1.7,
"edge_over": 0.3004,
"edge_under": -0.3004,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.6384,
"ev_under": -0.5546,
"implied_over": 0.4376,
"implied_under": 0.5624,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.84,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6384,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.665,
"draw_prob": 0.1877,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6614,
"over_prob": 0.738,
"total_xg": 3.84,
"under_prob": 0.262,
"xg_diff": 1.38
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0682,
"ev": 0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6614,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atletico Goianiense"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1669,
"ev": 0.2702,
"implied_prob": 0.4981,
"model_prob": 0.665,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.3004,
"ev": 0.6384,
"implied_prob": 0.4376,
"model_prob": 0.738,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1520721,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6384,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1509,
"draw": 0.1877,
"home": 0.6614
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2702,
"implied_prob": 0.4981,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.665,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2702,
"implied_prob": 0.4981,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.665,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1168,
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6614,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atletico Goianiense",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "CRB",
"home": "Atletico Goianiense"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.471139,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6384,
"implied_prob": 0.4376,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.738,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1520721,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T21:59:04.339372+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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