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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Emelec Macará ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.89
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Macará win · Macará 1–0 Emelec
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "5aa0c500be67520dc1e8bab2bc326d5378b20723cfe58fc594f1d303bbae7d4c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.358,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.503,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.497,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3134,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.79,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.19,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.15,
"home_win_prob": 0.3286,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.42,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under_25_prob": 0.58
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Macar\u00e1 or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Macar\u00e1"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Emelec",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1468,
"edge_gap": 0.0295,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2113,
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 35.8,
"draw": 31.3,
"home": 32.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.49
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.49,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Emelec Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.73,
"market_odds": 4.49,
"model_odds": 2.79,
"overround": 5.4,
"prob_edge": 13.6,
"value_pct": 60.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 29,
"home_score_rate": 68.3,
"no_prob": 50.3,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 49.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.15,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Macar\u00e1 or Draw",
"prob": 64.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Macar\u00e1 or Emelec",
"prob": 68.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Emelec",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Macar\u00e1 or Emelec",
"pick_prob": 68.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 35.8,
"draw_pct": 31.3,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Emelec"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.36,
"away_avg_scored": 0.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 42.0,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.36,
"under_prob": 58.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 60.9,
"implied_prob": 22.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Emelec Win",
"model_prob": 35.8,
"odds": 4.49
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Emelec",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 21.13,
"draw": 28.67,
"home": 50.2
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 20:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 19:59:37",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Macar\u00e1",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 2.21,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.2,
"gap_pp": -17.34,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.67,
"gap_pp": 2.66,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.32
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.13,
"gap_pp": 14.68,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 35.81
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.09,
"gap_pp": -0.09,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 42.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.91,
"gap_pp": 0.09,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 58.0
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.89,
"early": 1.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.2,
"implied_delta_pp": -2.21,
"implied_early_pct": 52.41,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.31,
"early": 3.4,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.67,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.76,
"implied_early_pct": 27.9,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.49,
"early": 4.82,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.13,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.45,
"implied_early_pct": 19.68,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.27,
"early": 2.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.09,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.62,
"implied_early_pct": 42.71,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.67,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.91,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.62,
"implied_early_pct": 57.29,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.3,
"ev": -0.1485,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.131,
"model_prob_pct": 13.1,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.4
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.9
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.9
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.15,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0516,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.2,
"text": "+5.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0516,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.2,
"text": "+5.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Emelec",
"sort_key": 10196.44,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.352,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0099,
"edge_pp": 1.0,
"market_prob": 0.4688,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.497,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3872,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.5203
},
"p_final": 0.4787,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0259,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0617,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.352,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"model_prob": 0.497,
"p_final": 0.4787
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0795,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.0,
"text": "-8.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.006,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.6,
"text": "-0.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.006,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 50.3,
"sort_key": 1798.5,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 49.7
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0009,
"edge_pp": 0.1,
"market_prob": 0.417,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.42,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0681,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.42,
"p_final": 0.4179
},
"p_final": 0.4179,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"raw_edge_pp": 0.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0634,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0681,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4024,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"p_final": 0.5818
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.013,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.3,
"text": "-1.3%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0488,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -4.9,
"text": "-4.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": -0.013,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 42.0,
"sort_key": 1796.75,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 58.0,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"alert_team": "Emelec",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.34,
"hero_label": "Macar\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 21.1,
"market_team": "Macar\u00e1",
"model_prob_pct": 35.8,
"model_team": "Emelec",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.608,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emelec at 35.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emelec as the value side (35.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emelec",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emelec \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519493 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6153846153846154,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 53,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.34,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.34,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.21,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -10.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.15,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.21,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.15 \u00b7 Away xG 1.21 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -10%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"steam_team": "Emelec",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.608,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emelec at 35.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emelec as the value side (35.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emelec",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emelec \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519493 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Macar\u00e1 1.15 xG vs Emelec 1.21 \u2192 Emelec 35.8%",
"Market: Macar\u00e1 ~21.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Emelec odds \u2191 +31.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Emelec, but the market has moved away from Emelec.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -17.34,
"fair_prob": 32.86,
"label": "Macar\u00e1",
"market_prob": 50.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.67,
"fair_prob": 31.34,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.67,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.67,
"fair_prob": 35.8,
"label": "Emelec",
"market_prob": 21.13,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 0.36,
"fair_prob": 42.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 41.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.36,
"fair_prob": 58.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 58.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.73,
"fair_prob": 49.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.97,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.73,
"fair_prob": 50.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.03,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -17.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.86,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Macar\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 50.2,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Emelec"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Macar\u00e1\u0027s win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 17.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 17.34,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Emelec",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 21.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.7,
"model_prob_pct": 35.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 53,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Macar\u00e1 1.15 xG vs Emelec 1.21 \u2192 Emelec 35.8%",
"Market: Macar\u00e1 ~21.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Emelec odds \u2191 +31.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Emelec, but the market has moved away from Emelec.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.34,
"hero_label": "Macar\u00e1",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Emelec odds lengthened \u2191 +31.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Emelec has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Macar\u00e1 than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Emelec \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Macar\u00e1 than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Emelec has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Emelec \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Macar\u00e1 more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Emelec has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.34,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Macar\u00e1",
"largest_gap_pp": -17.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Macar\u00e1 higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -17.34,
"edge_pp": -17.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.86,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Macar\u00e1",
"market_prob_pct": 50.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.67,
"edge_pp": 2.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.67,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.67,
"edge_pp": 14.67,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.8,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Emelec",
"market_prob_pct": 21.13,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Emelec \u2014 odds lengthened by 31.2% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Macar\u00e1 (21.1%).",
"However, Emelec has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +31.2%, 8/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Emelec, Market \u2192 Macar\u00e1, while Emelec odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 52.91,
"closing_odds": 1.89,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 52.91,
"entry_odds": 1.89,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +29.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 29.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 31.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 140h 21m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Emelec (31.2%, 8/13) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 31.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.82",
"4.01",
"3.20"
],
"display": "4.44 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 4.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 140h 21m",
"pick_team": "Emelec",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.44"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
4.49,
4.82,
4.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,3.7 37.3,0.0 56.0,6.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.82"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/13 sportsbooks on Emelec",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Emelec",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.2,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Emelec while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Emelec",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"current_odds": 4.2,
"move_display": "\u2191 +31.2%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Emelec",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Emelec",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "emelec",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Emelec",
"away_team_id": 1148,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1148.webp",
"away_team_name": "Emelec",
"away_team_public_id": "0Shp5URlSLJGEf",
"away_team_slug": "emelec",
"country_code": "EC",
"country_display_name": "Ecuador",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ec.svg",
"country_id": 46,
"country_name": "Ecuador",
"fixture_id": 1519493,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Ecuador",
"home_team_display_name": "Macar\u00e1",
"home_team_id": 1155,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1155.webp",
"home_team_name": "Macar\u00e1",
"home_team_public_id": "1CIdsNeHA2IZf6",
"home_team_slug": "macara",
"ht.home_team_slug": "macara",
"league_country": "Ecuador",
"league_country_display": "Ecuador",
"league_display_name": "Liga Pro",
"league_id": 242,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/242.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro",
"league_public_id": "5o6Mh46noZ9yF5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 20:30:00",
"public_id": "5cMqevGIlOl5vZ",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Ambato",
"venue_name": "Estadio Bellavista"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.156,
"best_odd": 4.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0229,
"ev": 0.0516,
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2113,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.502
},
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"p_final": 0.2342
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.288,
"best_odd": 3.31,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0077,
"ev": -0.0259,
"implied_prob": 0.2867,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2113,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.502
},
"model_prob": 0.3132,
"p_final": 0.2943
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.444,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.077,
"ev": -0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.502,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2113,
"draw": 0.2867,
"home": 0.502
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.4251
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.49,
"edge": 0.1354,
"ev": 0.608,
"implied_prob": 0.2227,
"model_prob": 0.3581
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.31,
"edge": 0.0111,
"ev": 0.0367,
"implied_prob": 0.3021,
"model_prob": 0.3132
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.2004,
"ev": -0.3788,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.3872,
"alpha_yes": 0.352,
"best_no_odd": 1.83,
"best_yes_odd": 2.0,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0273,
"edge_yes": 0.0273,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0795,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0999,
"ev_yes": -0.006,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0617,
"implied_no": 0.5303,
"implied_yes": 0.4697,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.3872,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": -0.0109,
"ev": -0.0999,
"implied_prob": 0.5312,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"p_final": 0.5203
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.352,
"best_odd": 1.96,
"edge": 0.0099,
"ev": -0.0617,
"implied_prob": 0.4688,
"model_prob": 0.497,
"p_final": 0.4787
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.5203,
"p_final_yes": 0.4787,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2927,
"alpha_under": 0.4024,
"best_over_odd": 2.35,
"best_under_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.23,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.595,
"edge_over": 0.0036,
"edge_under": -0.0036,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.013,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0681,
"ev_under": -0.0488,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.072,
"implied_over": 0.4164,
"implied_over_mf": 0.417,
"implied_under": 0.5836,
"implied_under_mf": 0.583,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2927,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": 0.0009,
"ev": -0.0681,
"implied_prob": 0.417,
"model_prob": 0.42,
"p_final": 0.4179
},
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4024,
"best_odd": 1.595,
"edge": -0.0012,
"ev": -0.072,
"implied_prob": 0.583,
"model_prob": 0.58,
"p_final": 0.5818
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4179,
"p_final_under": 0.5818,
"prediction_confidence": "low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.36,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.608,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0516,
"confidence": 4.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 4.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.3,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.608,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 4.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Emelec at 35.8%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 21.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Emelec as the value side (35.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Emelec",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Emelec \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.49 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +61% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1519493 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.49 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +5.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +5.2% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +5.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +5.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "53 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+5.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +61% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 53,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Emelec, but the model still strongly favours Emelec.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
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"source": "db",
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},
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"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
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},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
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"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -10.4,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
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"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
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}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.3132,
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},
"type": "balanced",
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},
"hero_display_pick": null,
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},
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"no": {
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},
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"edge": 0.0009,
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"over": {
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},
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}
},
"match_id": 1519493,
"match_regime": {
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"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0516,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.3132,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
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],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Emelec",
"home": "Macar\u00e1"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0516,
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"market": "1x2",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "weak",
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Emelec",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": true
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0516,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.2%",
"consensus_odds": 4.49,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2113,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3581,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.7 percentage points",
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"raw_implied_prob": 0.22271714922048996,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.6079,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+60.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1519493,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T20:29:06.632498+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Pro — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 74 |
| 2 | Macará | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 3 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | Universidad Católica | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 |
| 10 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 11 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 33 |
| 14 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Católica | 29 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 48 |
| 3 | Macará | 30 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 5 | Orense SC | 29 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 33 |
| 6 | Aucas | 30 | 33 | 28 | +5 | 50 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 9 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 32 | 25 | +7 | 44 |
| 10 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 31 | 24 | +7 | 46 |
| 11 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 13 | Emelec | 30 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 36 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 15 | Delfín SC | 30 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emelec | 30 | 3.0 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 36 |
| 2 | Aucas | 30 | 2.9 | 1.6 | +1.3 | 50 |
| 3 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 4.2 | 3.1 | +1.1 | 46 |
| 4 | Macará | 30 | 3.0 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 51 |
| 5 | Universidad Católica | 29 | 2.3 | 1.4 | +0.9 | 48 |
| 6 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 2.6 | 1.9 | +0.7 | 39 |
| 7 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 2.3 | 1.7 | +0.6 | 38 |
| 8 | Delfín SC | 30 | 1.7 | 1.4 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -0.3 | 39 |
| 10 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 3.4 | 4.1 | -0.7 | 44 |
| 11 | Manta FC | 30 | 0.5 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 21 |
| 12 | Técnico Universitario | 30 | 0.6 | 1.7 | -1.1 | 32 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 29 | 0.3 | 1.8 | -1.5 | 33 |
| 14 | Libertad | 30 | 0.3 | 2.0 | -1.7 | 41 |
| 15 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 3.3 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 36 |
| 16 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | — | — | — | 74 |
