Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Colorado Rapids II Austin II ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.52
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Austin II win · Austin II 1–0 Colorado Rapids II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "4afd0becc993b0da4eee70cffc58f213ae25bc5746ca5dfa05c4857eb518b6d3",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.3285,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Austin II or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Austin II"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Colorado Rapids II",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2012,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1745,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 5.24
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 5.24,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Colorado Rapids II Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 5.73,
"market_odds": 5.24,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 9.4,
"prob_edge": 18.5,
"value_pct": 97.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 2,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 12,
"home_failed_to_score": 1,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Austin II or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Austin II or Colorado Rapids II",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Colorado Rapids II",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Austin II or Colorado Rapids II",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Colorado Rapids II"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 2.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 97.0,
"implied_prob": 19.1,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Colorado Rapids II Win",
"model_prob": 37.6,
"odds": 5.24
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 17.45,
"draw": 22.41,
"home": 60.15
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-14 00:29:10",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 23:59:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Austin II",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 60.15,
"gap_pp": -27.28,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.41,
"gap_pp": 7.16,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 17.45,
"gap_pp": 20.12,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.64,
"gap_pp": -7.44,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.36,
"gap_pp": 7.44,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.52,
"early": 1.52,
"implied_closing_pct": 60.15,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 60.15,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.08,
"early": 4.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.41,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 5.24,
"early": 5.24,
"implied_closing_pct": 17.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 17.45,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.69,
"early": 1.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 55.64,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 55.64,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.12,
"early": 2.12,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.36,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 20.1,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.4,
"ev": 0.125,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.0,
"market_prob": 0.1111,
"market_prob_pct": 11.1,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0147,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.4444,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5394
},
"p_final": 0.4592,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.4,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0619,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0587,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0587,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4592
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.1,
"text": "-18.1%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0982,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 9.8,
"text": "+9.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0982,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10238.38,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 5.24,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0614,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.1,
"text": "+6.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0614,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.1,
"text": "+6.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9687,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+96.9%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Colorado Rapids II",
"sort_key": 10055.26,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2419,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0037,
"edge_pp": 0.4,
"market_prob": 0.5299,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2199,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4668
},
"p_final": 0.5335,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 1.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0571,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.077,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2419,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5335
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.09,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0571,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.7,
"text": "-5.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0571,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 1785.725,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"alert_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 27.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -27.3,
"hero_label": "Austin II",
"market_prob_pct": 17.4,
"market_team": "Austin II",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Colorado Rapids II), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Colorado Rapids II), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9685,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colorado Rapids II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colorado Rapids II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colorado Rapids II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Colorado Rapids II \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +97% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1513360 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Colorado Rapids II), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +97% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0614,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.24,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19083969465648853,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9687,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+96.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "3/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.42857142857142855,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (27 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 11.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.3,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 27.3,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 27.3,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"steam_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Colorado Rapids II), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Colorado Rapids II), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Colorado Rapids II), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9685,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colorado Rapids II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colorado Rapids II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colorado Rapids II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Colorado Rapids II \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +97% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1513360 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Colorado Rapids II), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +97% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0614,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.24,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19083969465648853,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9687,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+96.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Austin II 1.25 xG vs Colorado Rapids II 1.35 \u2192 Colorado Rapids II 37.5%",
"Market: Austin II ~17.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Colorado Rapids II \u2193 -18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Colorado Rapids II, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -27.3,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Austin II",
"market_prob": 60.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.2,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.09,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Colorado Rapids II",
"market_prob": 17.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.3,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.3,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.5,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.43,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 53.07,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.43,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 46.93,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -27.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Austin II",
"market_prob_pct": 60.15,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Colorado Rapids II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Austin II\u0027s win probability at 60.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 27.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 27.3,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Colorado Rapids II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 17.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 20.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 20.1,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Colorado Rapids II \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+20.1 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Austin II 1.25 xG vs Colorado Rapids II 1.35 \u2192 Colorado Rapids II 37.5%",
"Market: Austin II ~17.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Colorado Rapids II \u2193 -18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Colorado Rapids II, but market pricing diverges by 27 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -27.3,
"hero_label": "Austin II",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Colorado Rapids II odds shortened \u2193 -18.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 27.3,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Austin II",
"largest_gap_pp": -27.3,
"lead": "The closing market prices Austin II higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 27.3,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -27.3,
"edge_pp": -27.3,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Austin II",
"market_prob_pct": 60.15,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.2,
"edge_pp": 7.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.41,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 20.09,
"edge_pp": 20.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Colorado Rapids II",
"market_prob_pct": 17.45,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Austin II (17.4%).",
"However, Colorado Rapids II has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -18.2%, 3/7).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Colorado Rapids II, Market \u2192 Austin II, Recent sharp money \u2192 Colorado Rapids II.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 65.79,
"closing_odds": 1.52,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 65.79,
"entry_odds": 1.52,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.5
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Colorado Rapids II (18.2%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.50",
"5.00",
"4.50"
],
"display": "6.00 \u2192 4.50 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 49m",
"pick_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.5,
5.24,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,4.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Colorado Rapids II \u2193 -18.2% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Colorado Rapids II \u2193 -18.2% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/7",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"pick_team": "Colorado Rapids II",
"steam_score": 60,
"steam_team_name": "Colorado Rapids II",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 27.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "colorado-rapids-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Colorado Rapids II",
"away_team_id": 4102,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4102.webp",
"away_team_name": "Colorado Rapids II",
"away_team_public_id": "0Z3phLWXfLHmIl",
"away_team_slug": "colorado-rapids-ii",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1513360,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Austin II",
"home_team_id": 21138,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/21138.webp",
"home_team_name": "Austin II",
"home_team_public_id": "0O9Tkhr0aDy3Hi",
"home_team_slug": "austin-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "austin-ii",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "MLS Next Pro",
"league_id": 909,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/909.webp",
"league_name": "MLS Next Pro",
"league_public_id": "3CwVqdBnoU3vAe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-14 00:30:00",
"public_id": "0ineUzFCPMX3gH",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Parmer Filed"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1396,
"best_odd": 5.24,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": 0.0614,
"implied_prob": 0.1745,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1745,
"draw": 0.2241,
"home": 0.6015
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.2026
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1785,
"best_odd": 4.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0128,
"ev": -0.0337,
"implied_prob": 0.2241,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1745,
"draw": 0.2241,
"home": 0.6015
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.2368
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3545,
"best_odd": 1.52,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0967,
"ev": -0.2328,
"implied_prob": 0.6015,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1745,
"draw": 0.2241,
"home": 0.6015
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.5048
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.24,
"edge": 0.1848,
"ev": 0.9685,
"implied_prob": 0.1908,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.08,
"edge": 0.0505,
"ev": 0.2062,
"implied_prob": 0.2451,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.52,
"edge": -0.3292,
"ev": -0.5004,
"implied_prob": 0.6579,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2199,
"alpha_yes": 0.2419,
"best_no_odd": 2.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.73,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0143,
"edge_yes": 0.0143,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.09,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0898,
"ev_yes": -0.0571,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.077,
"implied_no": 0.4693,
"implied_yes": 0.5307,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2199,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4668
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2419,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5335
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.4668,
"p_final_yes": 0.5335,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2202,
"alpha_under": 0.2002,
"best_over_odd": 1.7,
"best_under_odd": 2.12,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.05,
"edge_over": -0.073,
"edge_under": 0.073,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1806,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1155,
"ev_under": 0.0982,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0587,
"implied_over": 0.555,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5556,
"implied_under": 0.445,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4444,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5394
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0587,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4592
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5394,
"p_final_under": 0.4592,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9685,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0982,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.8,
"score_before_guard": 5.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 27.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 27.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Colorado Rapids II), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0982,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.9685,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 37,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colorado Rapids II at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 17.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colorado Rapids II as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 20.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colorado Rapids II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Colorado Rapids II \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.80 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +97% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1513360 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.80 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "37 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Colorado Rapids II), but pricing still diverges by 27.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 3.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +97% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0614,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.24,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19083969465648853,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9687,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+96.9%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 5.24,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0281,
"ev": 0.0614,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1745,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Colorado Rapids II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2419,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0037,
"market_prob": 0.5299,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2199,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0033,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4668
},
"p_final": 0.5335,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.077,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2419,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0037,
"ev": -0.077,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5335
}
},
"edge": 0.0143,
"ev": -0.0571,
"implied_prob": 0.5307,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0147,
"market_prob": 0.4444,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2202,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0162,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5394
},
"p_final": 0.4592,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0587,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2002,
"best_odd": 2.05,
"edge": 0.0147,
"ev": -0.0587,
"implied_prob": 0.4444,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4592
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.073,
"ev": 0.0982,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.445,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1513360,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0982,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Colorado Rapids II",
"home": "Austin II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.035607,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0982,
"implied_prob": 0.445,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0614,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.1%",
"consensus_odds": 5.24,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1745,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "+20.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 20.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.19083969465648853,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.9687,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+96.9%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1513360,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-14T00:29:12.617590+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Austin II & Colorado Rapids II!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
MLS Next Pro — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 17 | 0 | 11 | 48 |
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 54 |
| 1 | Austin II | 26 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | New England II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 48 |
| 2 | Chattanooga | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 50 |
| 2 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 54 |
| 3 | New York City II | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 47 |
| 3 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 45 |
| 3 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 26 | 18 | 0 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Connecticut FC | 28 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | LA Galaxy II | 26 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 50 |
| 5 | New York RB II | 28 | 15 | 0 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | St. Louis City II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 43 |
| 6 | Bethlehem Steel | 28 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 43 |
| 6 | Los Angeles II | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Toronto II | 28 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 39 |
| 7 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 7 | 0 | 21 | 20 |
| 8 | North Texas | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 38 |
| 9 | Orlando City II | 26 | 14 | 0 | 12 | 41 |
| 9 | Minnesota United II | 25 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 37 |
| 10 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 36 |
| 11 | Real Monarchs | 25 | 11 | 0 | 14 | 29 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 39 |
| 12 | Whitecaps II | 26 | 10 | 0 | 16 | 27 |
| 13 | Huntsville City | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 38 |
| 13 | Swope Park Rangers | 26 | 6 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 14 | Carolina Core | 26 | 9 | 0 | 17 | 28 |
| 14 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 5 | 0 | 21 | 18 |
| 16 | Fort Lauderdale CF | 26 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 26 | 63 | 36 | +27 | 54 |
| 2 | Connecticut FC | 28 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 46 |
| 3 | New York RB II | 28 | 58 | 48 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Atlanta United II | 26 | 57 | 40 | +17 | 45 |
| 5 | LA Galaxy II | 26 | 54 | 34 | +20 | 50 |
| 6 | Austin II | 26 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 59 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo FC II | 26 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 51 |
| 8 | Chattanooga | 26 | 51 | 38 | +13 | 50 |
| 9 | New York City II | 28 | 50 | 44 | +6 | 47 |
| 10 | Orlando City II | 26 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 41 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew II | 28 | 49 | 43 | +6 | 48 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire II | 26 | 49 | 45 | +4 | 39 |
| 13 | Toronto II | 28 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 39 |
| 14 | New England II | 28 | 47 | 42 | +5 | 48 |
| 15 | San Jose Earthquakes II | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 36 |
| 16 | Los Angeles II | 26 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 42 |
| 17 | Huntsville City | 26 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 38 |
| 18 | St. Louis City II | 26 | 41 | 37 | +4 | 43 |
| 19 | North Texas | 26 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 38 |
| 20 | Tacoma Defiance | 26 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 39 |
| 21 | Whitecaps II | 26 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 27 |
| 22 | Bethlehem Steel | 28 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 43 |
| 23 | Carolina Core | 26 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 28 |
| 24 | Real Monarchs | 25 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 29 |
| 25 | Portland Timbers II | 26 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 54 |
| 26 | Minnesota United II | 25 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 37 |
| 27 | FC Cincinnati II | 28 | 32 | 62 | -30 | 20 |
| 28 | Swope Park Rangers | 26 | 32 | 68 | -36 | 20 |
| 29 | Fort Lauderdale CF | 26 | 27 | 63 | -36 | 15 |
| 30 | Colorado Rapids II | 26 | 26 | 50 | -24 | 18 |
