Real Monarchs vs Portland Timbers II Statistics & Analysis

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      "away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3302,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3302,
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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
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      "fair_odds_away": 3.03,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.03,
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      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.49,
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      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.61,
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      "home_win_prob": 0.383,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.383,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
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      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Real Monarchs"
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    "away_xg": 1.23,
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        "confidence": "low",
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        "edge_gap": 0.0531,
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        "pick_type": "no_strong",
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          "away": 33.0,
          "draw": 28.7,
          "home": 38.3
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 2.43
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 2.65,
        "market_odds": 2.43,
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        "overround": 9.2,
        "prob_edge": -2.8,
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        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 13,
        "away_score_rate": 70.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 2,
        "home_failed_to_score": 4,
        "home_played": 13,
        "home_score_rate": 74.6,
        "no_prob": 45.6,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
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        "strong_pick": true,
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      "correct_score": {
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        "home_expected": 1.37,
        "scores": [
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            "away": 1,
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            "away": 0,
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            "away": 2,
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Real Monarchs or Draw",
            "prob": 67.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Real Monarchs or Portland Timbers II",
            "prob": 71.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Portland Timbers II",
            "prob": 61.7
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        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
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        "lean_label": "Real Monarchs"
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      "over_under": {
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        "home_avg_scored": 1.8,
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        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Real Monarchs Win",
        "model_prob": 38.3,
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Portland Timbers II",
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      "home_team": "Real Monarchs",
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.37,
    "homepage_pick": null,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
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          "text": "-22.9%"
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          "text": "+24.3%"
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          "raw_pct": 16.3,
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    ],
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        "alert_breadth": "2/11",
        "alert_breadth_note": "2/11 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +4.3%",
        "alert_team": "Portland Timbers II",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 2.2,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": -2.2,
        "hero_label": "Portland Timbers II",
        "market_prob_pct": 37.7,
        "market_team": "Real Monarchs",
        "model_prob_pct": 38.3,
        "model_team": "Real Monarchs",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 15,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 0.61,
          "fair_prob": 38.3,
          "label": "Real Monarchs",
          "market_prob": 37.69,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.58,
          "fair_prob": 28.67,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 27.09,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.2,
          "fair_prob": 33.02,
          "label": "Portland Timbers II",
          "market_prob": 35.22,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -11.39,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 59.59,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 11.39,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 40.41,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.54,
          "fair_prob": 54.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 62.94,
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          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 8.54,
          "fair_prob": 45.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 37.06,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
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        "edge_pp": -2.2,
        "fair_prob_pct": 33.02,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Portland Timbers II",
        "market_prob_pct": 35.22,
        "status": "aligned",
        "steam_team_name": "Portland Timbers II"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "aligned",
          "max_gap_pp": 2.2,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Real Monarchs",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 37.7,
          "model_prob_pct": 38.3,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Real Monarchs, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Portland Timbers II remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -2.2,
        "hero_label": "Portland Timbers II",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Portland Timbers II odds lengthened \u2191 +4.3%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (2/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "Confirmation remains limited (2/11 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "Recent line movement on Portland Timbers II (\u2191 +4.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (2/11), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 2.2,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.3 pp (at 38.3%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 5.3,
          "max_prob_pct": 38.3,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 0.61,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.3,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Real Monarchs",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.69,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 1.58,
            "fair_prob_pct": 28.67,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.09,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -2.2,
            "fair_prob_pct": 33.02,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Portland Timbers II",
            "market_prob_pct": 35.22,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Real Monarchs (37.7%).",
          "Portland Timbers II has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2191 +4.3%, 2/11).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Real Monarchs, Market \u2192 Real Monarchs, Recent sharp money \u2192 Portland Timbers II.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 38.46,
        "closing_odds": 2.6,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 38.46,
        "entry_odds": 2.6,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 2,
        "books_total": 11,
        "breadth_display": "2/11",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.45,
        "move_context": "Sharpest sharp-led move",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
        "move_pct_abs": 4.3,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on Portland Timbers II (swing 2.88 \u2192 2.35 \u2192 2.45) \u2014 net 4.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.88 \u2192 2.35 \u2192 2.45",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 27h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Portland Timbers II",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.88"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.35"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.45"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,10.8",
          "sparkline_trend": "volatile",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.35,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Portland Timbers II",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 15,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "2/11",
        "current_odds": 2.45,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
        "open_odds": 2.35,
        "pick_team": "Portland Timbers II",
        "steam_score": 15,
        "steam_team_name": "Portland Timbers II",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 2.2,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 4011,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4011.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Portland Timbers II",
      "country_code": "US",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
      "country_name": "USA",
      "fixture_id": 1513152,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "USA",
      "home_team_id": 4012,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4012.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Real Monarchs",
      "league_country": "USA",
      "league_id": 909,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/909.webp",
      "league_name": "MLS Next Pro",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 21:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": "Zions Bank Stadium"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4351,
            "best_odd": 2.6,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0096,
            "ev": -0.1092,
            "implied_prob": 0.3522,
            "model_prob": 0.3301,
            "p_final": 0.3426
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2929,
            "best_odd": 3.38,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0046,
            "ev": -0.0687,
            "implied_prob": 0.2709,
            "model_prob": 0.2866,
            "p_final": 0.2755
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4457,
            "best_odd": 2.43,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0029,
            "ev": -0.0773,
            "implied_prob": 0.3769,
            "model_prob": 0.3833,
            "p_final": 0.3797
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        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.55,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.5,
          "edge_no": 0.0854,
          "edge_yes": -0.0854,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.1628,
          "ev_yes": -0.184,
          "implied_no": 0.3706,
          "implied_yes": 0.6294,
          "n_bookmakers": 6,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.6,
          "best_under_odd": 2.4,
          "edge_over": -0.1139,
          "edge_under": 0.1139,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.2288,
          "ev_under": 0.2432,
          "implied_over": 0.5959,
          "implied_under": 0.4041,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2432,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2866,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3833,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.14
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0029,
          "ev": -0.0773,
          "implied_prob": 0.3769,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3833,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Real Monarchs"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0854,
          "ev": 0.1628,
          "implied_prob": 0.3706,
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1139,
          "ev": 0.2432,
          "implied_prob": 0.4041,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1513152,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2432,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3301,
        "draw": 0.2866,
        "home": 0.3833
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1628,
        "implied_prob": 0.3706,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.456,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1628,
          "implied_prob": 0.3706,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "no",
          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Portland Timbers II",
        "home": "Real Monarchs"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.088184,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2432,
        "implied_prob": 0.4041,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.518,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1513152,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T21:29:06.113803+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}