Stenungsund vs Ahlafors Statistics & Analysis

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      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
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          "away": 39.0,
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        {
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        "best_odds": 2.35,
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        "away_score_rate": 74.8,
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        "home_played": 11,
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        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
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            "away": 1,
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      "double_chance": {
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            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Stenungsund or Draw",
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          },
          {
            "key": "12",
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          {
            "key": "X2",
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    "closing_line_bundle": {
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        "alert_breadth_note": "8/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
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        "alert_team": "Ahlafors",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
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      "edge_rows": [
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          "outcome": "home"
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          "edge_pp": 4.82,
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          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 1.09,
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          "outcome": "away"
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          "edge_pp": -13.09,
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          "outcome": "over"
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          "edge_pp": 13.09,
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          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -8.99,
          "fair_prob": 54.4,
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          "market_prob": 63.39,
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        {
          "edge_pp": 8.99,
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          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 36.61,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
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      ],
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        "edge_pp": -5.92,
        "fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Stenungsund",
        "market_prob_pct": 37.4,
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Ahlafors"
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      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 5.92,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
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        "forecast_assessment": {
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          "favourite_label": "Ahlafors",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 37.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
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          "summary": "The model and market both lean Ahlafors, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Stenungsund remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
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        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -5.92,
        "hero_label": "Stenungsund",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Ahlafors odds lengthened \u2191 +11.9%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Ahlafors has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Stenungsund. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Ahlafors \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model broadly agree on Stenungsund. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
            "However, Ahlafors has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Ahlafors \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
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        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market still prices Stenungsund above the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Ahlafors has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9%, suggesting weakening support."
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          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
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        "model_validation": {
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          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
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          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
          "max_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
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        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
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            "edge_pp": -5.92,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Stenungsund",
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            "side": "home"
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          {
            "edge_pp": 4.82,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 24.72,
            "side": "draw"
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          {
            "edge_pp": 1.09,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Ahlafors",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.88,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Ahlafors \u2014 odds lengthened by 11.9% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": false,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Ahlafors (37.9%).",
          "However, Ahlafors has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +11.9%, 8/12).",
          "The model and market both lean Ahlafors, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Stenungsund remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
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        "context": "match",
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        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
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            "id": "market_detected",
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        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
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        "current_odds": 2.35,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
        "move_pct_abs": 11.9,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Ahlafors (11.9%, 8/12) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "2.45 \u2192 2.04 \u2192 2.35",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
          "pick_team": "Ahlafors",
          "points": [
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              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.45"
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            {
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          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.1,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Ahlafors \u2191 +11.9% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Ahlafors",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Ahlafors \u2191 +11.9% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
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        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
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        "breadth_display": "8/12",
        "current_odds": 2.35,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +11.9%",
        "open_odds": 2.1,
        "pick_team": "Ahlafors",
        "steam_score": 62,
        "steam_team_name": "Ahlafors",
        "steam_tier": "A"
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        "current_divergence_pp": 5.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
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      "away_team_id": 12570,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/12570.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Ahlafors",
      "country_code": "SE",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
      "country_name": "Sweden",
      "fixture_id": 1510605,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Sweden",
      "home_team_id": 12575,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12575.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Stenungsund",
      "league_country": "Sweden",
      "league_id": 592,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/592.webp",
      "league_name": "Division 2 - Norra G\u00f6taland",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-12 17:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
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      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": null
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          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 6.5
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "draw": {
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            "calibration": {
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
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            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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        "btts": {
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          "edge_no": 0.0899,
          "edge_yes": -0.0899,
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          "implied_no": 0.3661,
          "implied_yes": 0.6339,
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          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.55,
          "edge_over": -0.1309,
          "edge_under": 0.1309,
          "ev_available": true,
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          "implied_over": 0.6129,
          "implied_under": 0.3871,
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          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
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        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
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          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
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        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
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        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
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          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.16
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        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "edge": 0.0048,
          "ev": -0.0986,
          "implied_prob": 0.3788,
          "max_ev_side": "draw",
          "model_prob": 0.3897,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Ahlafors"
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        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "implied_prob": 0.3661,
          "model_prob": 0.456,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1309,
          "ev": 0.3209,
          "implied_prob": 0.3871,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
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      },
      "match_id": 1510605,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
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        "draw": 0.2954,
        "home": 0.3149
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      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
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      "secondary_pick": {
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        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
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        "side": "no",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
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          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Ahlafors",
        "home": "Stenungsund"
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      "top_pick": {
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        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
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        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  "fixture_id": 1510605,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T16:59:18.642056+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}