Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Racing Louisville Bay FC ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.53
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Bay FC win · Bay FC 2–0 Racing Louisville
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "f19866ec124aef0a47c1acbf79fbd9303e506c13349d8bd5c0275bf39460d104",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 2.16,
"away_win_prob": 0.446,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.244,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.756,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2232,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.24,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.48,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.02,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.86,
"home_win_prob": 0.3308,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.765,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.235
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Bay FC or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Bay FC"
},
"away_xg": 2.16,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Racing Louisville",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1867,
"edge_gap": 0.1152,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2594,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 44.6,
"draw": 22.3,
"home": 33.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.53
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.53,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Racing Louisville Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.85,
"market_odds": 3.53,
"model_odds": 2.24,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": 16.3,
"value_pct": 57.6,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 0,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 24,
"away_score_rate": 88.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 84.4,
"no_prob": 24.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 75.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 75.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.16,
"home_expected": 1.86,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bay FC or Draw",
"prob": 55.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bay FC or Racing Louisville",
"prob": 77.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Racing Louisville",
"prob": 66.9
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bay FC or Racing Louisville",
"pick_prob": 77.7
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 44.6,
"draw_pct": 22.3,
"home_pct": 33.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Racing Louisville"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 4.02,
"away_avg_scored": 1.5,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 76.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 76.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 4.02,
"under_prob": 23.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 57.6,
"implied_prob": 28.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Racing Louisville Win",
"model_prob": 44.6,
"odds": 3.53
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Racing Louisville",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.94,
"draw": 23.18,
"home": 50.87
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 23:04:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 22:34:02",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bay FC",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 50.87,
"gap_pp": -17.79,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.18,
"gap_pp": -0.88,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.3
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.94,
"gap_pp": 18.67,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 44.61
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.77,
"gap_pp": 14.73,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 76.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.23,
"gap_pp": -14.73,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 23.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.8,
"early": 1.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 50.87,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 50.87,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.95,
"early": 3.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.18,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.18,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.53,
"early": 3.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.94,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.94,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.51,
"early": 1.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 61.77,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 61.77,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.44,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.23,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.23,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.1,
"ev": 0.17,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-2",
"market_odds": 15.0,
"market_prob": 0.0667,
"market_prob_pct": 6.7,
"model_prob": 0.078,
"model_prob_pct": 7.8,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.86,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1917,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.455,
"edge": 0.0288,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"market_prob": 0.6057,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1394,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1656,
"implied_prob": 0.3943,
"model_prob": 0.244,
"p_final": 0.3734
},
"p_final": 0.6345,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0768,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1917,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.6057,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"p_final": 0.6345
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4144,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -41.4,
"text": "-41.4%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2247,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 22.5,
"text": "+22.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2247,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 24.4,
"sort_key": 10352.23,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 75.6
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1919,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"edge": 0.0287,
"edge_pp": 2.9,
"market_prob": 0.6152,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1919,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6439
},
"p_final": 0.6439,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1245,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0534,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1395,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3639
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1704,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 17.0,
"text": "+17.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.4266,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -42.7,
"text": "-42.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1704,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 76.5,
"sort_key": 10153.36,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 23.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0581,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0581,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 5.8,
"text": "+5.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Racing Louisville",
"sort_key": 10052.29,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 803.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 7.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"alert_team": "Racing Louisville",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 18.7,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.66,
"hero_label": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
"market_team": "Bay FC",
"model_prob_pct": 44.6,
"model_team": "Racing Louisville",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5747,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Louisville at 44.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Louisville as the value side (44.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Louisville",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Racing Louisville \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.08 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508554 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.08 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0581,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28328611898017,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 60%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/8",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (19 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (60%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 51,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 18.66,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 18.66,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.16,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.86,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.16,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.86 \u00b7 Away xG 2.16 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +60%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"steam_team": "Racing Louisville",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5747,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Louisville at 44.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Louisville as the value side (44.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Louisville",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Racing Louisville \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.08 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508554 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.08 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0581,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28328611898017,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 60%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bay FC 1.86 xG vs Racing Louisville 2.16 \u2192 Racing Louisville 44.6%",
"Market: Bay FC ~25.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Racing Louisville odds \u2191 +16.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Racing Louisville, but the market has moved away from Racing Louisville.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -17.79,
"fair_prob": 33.08,
"label": "Bay FC",
"market_prob": 50.87,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.86,
"fair_prob": 22.32,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.18,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 18.66,
"fair_prob": 44.6,
"label": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob": 25.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.79,
"fair_prob": 76.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 60.71,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.79,
"fair_prob": 23.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 39.29,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.91,
"fair_prob": 75.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.69,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.91,
"fair_prob": 24.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.31,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 18.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.6,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob_pct": 25.94,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Racing Louisville"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Racing Louisville\u0027s win probability at 44.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 18.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 18.66,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Racing Louisville",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 25.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 18.7,
"model_prob_pct": 44.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 51,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bay FC 1.86 xG vs Racing Louisville 2.16 \u2192 Racing Louisville 44.6%",
"Market: Bay FC ~25.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Racing Louisville odds \u2191 +16.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Racing Louisville, but the market has moved away from Racing Louisville.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 18.66,
"hero_label": "Racing Louisville",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Racing Louisville odds lengthened \u2191 +16.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Racing Louisville.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Racing Louisville.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Racing Louisville.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Racing Louisville."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Racing Louisville more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Racing Louisville (\u2191 +16.1%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/8) supports the current market view on Racing Louisville."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 18.66,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.5 pp (at 44.6%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.5,
"max_prob_pct": 44.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Racing Louisville",
"largest_gap_pp": 18.7,
"lead": "The model rates Racing Louisville considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 18.7,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -17.79,
"edge_pp": -17.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.08,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bay FC",
"market_prob_pct": 50.87,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.86,
"edge_pp": -0.86,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.18,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 18.66,
"edge_pp": 18.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.6,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Racing Louisville",
"market_prob_pct": 25.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Racing Louisville.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bay FC (25.9%).",
"However, Racing Louisville has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +16.1%, 8/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Racing Louisville, Market \u2192 Bay FC, while Racing Louisville odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.33,
"closing_odds": 3.53,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.33,
"entry_odds": 3.53,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 16.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 65h 37m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/8 books lengthened Racing Louisville together (16.1% drift, score 69) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.60",
"3.35",
"3.10"
],
"display": "3.74 \u2192 2.88 \u2192 3.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 65h 37m",
"pick_team": "Racing Louisville",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.74"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.53,
3.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,2.5 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Racing Louisville odds \u2191 +16.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Racing Louisville",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Racing Louisville odds \u2191 +16.1% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.6,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Market moved away from Racing Louisville while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Racing Louisville",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/8",
"current_odds": 3.6,
"move_display": "\u2191 +16.1%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Racing Louisville",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_team_name": "Racing Louisville",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 18.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "racing-louisville-w",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Racing Louisville",
"away_team_id": 16488,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16488.webp",
"away_team_name": "Racing Louisville",
"away_team_public_id": "44mYXoXckP52pP",
"away_team_slug": "racing-louisville-w",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1508554,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Bay FC",
"home_team_id": 22943,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22943.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bay FC",
"home_team_name_canonical": "Bay FC",
"home_team_public_id": "3ticbKbERpOVdx",
"home_team_slug": "bay-fc",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bay-fc",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_id": 254,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/254.webp",
"league_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_public_id": "2ZcWd6nHxKtiNe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 23:05:00",
"public_id": "587H045BpLhOEN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "San Jose",
"venue_name": "Avaya Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.216,
"best_odd": 3.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0403,
"ev": 0.0581,
"implied_prob": 0.2594,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2594,
"draw": 0.2318,
"home": 0.5087
},
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"p_final": 0.2997
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.296,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0026,
"ev": -0.0945,
"implied_prob": 0.2318,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2594,
"draw": 0.2318,
"home": 0.5087
},
"model_prob": 0.223,
"p_final": 0.2292
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4399,
"best_odd": 1.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0782,
"ev": -0.2251,
"implied_prob": 0.5087,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2594,
"draw": 0.2318,
"home": 0.5087
},
"model_prob": 0.3309,
"p_final": 0.4305
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.53,
"edge": 0.1628,
"ev": 0.5747,
"implied_prob": 0.2833,
"model_prob": 0.4461
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.95,
"edge": -0.0301,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.2532,
"model_prob": 0.223
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.8,
"edge": -0.2247,
"ev": -0.4044,
"implied_prob": 0.5556,
"model_prob": 0.3309
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1394,
"alpha_yes": 0.1917,
"best_no_odd": 2.4,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1491,
"edge_yes": 0.1491,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4144,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1656,
"ev_yes": 0.2247,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0768,
"implied_no": 0.3931,
"implied_yes": 0.6069,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1394,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1656,
"implied_prob": 0.3943,
"model_prob": 0.244,
"p_final": 0.3734
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1917,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.6057,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"p_final": 0.6345
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.3734,
"p_final_yes": 0.6345,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1919,
"alpha_under": 0.1395,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.35,
"edge_over": 0.1579,
"edge_under": -0.1579,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1704,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0534,
"ev_under": -0.4266,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1448,
"implied_over": 0.6071,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6152,
"implied_under": 0.3929,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3848,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1919,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6439
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1395,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3639
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6439,
"p_final_under": 0.3639,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5747,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2247,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 18.7,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5747,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Racing Louisville at 44.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 25.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Racing Louisville as the value side (44.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 18.7,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Racing Louisville",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Racing Louisville \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.08 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +57% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508554 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.08 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +22.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +22.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +22.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +22.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+22.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +57% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 51,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Racing Louisville, but the model still strongly favours Racing Louisville.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0581,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28328611898017,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 60.0,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 60%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.756,
"draw_prob": 0.223,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4461,
"over_prob": 0.765,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"under_prob": 0.235,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0403,
"ev": 0.0581,
"implied_prob": 0.2594,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Racing Louisville"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1917,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.455,
"edge": 0.0288,
"market_prob": 0.6057,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1394,
"best_odd": 2.235,
"edge": -0.021,
"ev": -0.1656,
"implied_prob": 0.3943,
"model_prob": 0.244,
"p_final": 0.3734
},
"p_final": 0.6345,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0768,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1917,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": -0.0768,
"implied_prob": 0.6057,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"p_final": 0.6345
}
},
"edge": 0.1491,
"ev": 0.2247,
"implied_prob": 0.6069,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1919,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.47,
"edge": 0.0287,
"market_prob": 0.6152,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1919,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": -0.0534,
"implied_prob": 0.6152,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.6439
},
"p_final": 0.6439,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0534,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1395,
"best_odd": 2.35,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.1448,
"implied_prob": 0.3848,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.3639
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1579,
"ev": 0.1704,
"implied_prob": 0.6071,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1508554,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2247,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4461,
"draw": 0.223,
"home": 0.3309
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1704,
"implied_prob": 0.6071,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1704,
"implied_prob": 0.6071,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Racing Louisville",
"home": "Bay FC"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.195354,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2247,
"implied_prob": 0.6069,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0581,
"consensus_ev_display": "+5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.53,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2594,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4461,
"raw_edge_display": "+18.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 18.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.28328611898017,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5747,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+57.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508554,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T23:04:06.286360+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Bay FC & Racing Louisville!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
NWSL Femenina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Utah Royals | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | OL Reign | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Houston Dash | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 13 | Bay FC | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 39 |
| 2 | Angel City W | 26 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 |
| 3 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 41 |
| 4 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | Utah Royals | 25 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 8 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 9 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 23 |
| 10 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 |
| 11 | OL Reign | 26 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 40 |
| 12 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 25 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 7.6 | 4.5 | +3.1 | 48 |
| 2 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 35 |
| 3 | Bay FC | 25 | 3.1 | 1.4 | +1.7 | 26 |
| 4 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 30 |
| 5 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | +1.1 | 39 |
| 6 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 3.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 26 |
| 7 | OL Reign | 26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | +0.9 | 40 |
| 8 | Utah Royals | 25 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 42 |
| 9 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 41 |
| 10 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -1.1 | 46 |
| 11 | Angel City W | 26 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 12 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 42 |
| 13 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 23 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 1.9 | 3.9 | -2.0 | 29 |
| 15 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | — | — | — | 54 |
