Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 NJ/NY Gotham FC Denver Summit W ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-2, 2-2, 1-1, 2-1, 1-3 3-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.44
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Denver Summit W win · Denver Summit W 3–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3f2c8ac77067de5fd05ae5c8a9703fe8c4085fa732af17a1a0dd7778dc39b1e2",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.4332,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2306,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3362,
"away_predicted_xg": 2.15,
"away_win_prob": 0.4332,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.4332,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.243,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.757,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2306,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2306,
"fair_odds_away": 2.31,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 2.31,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.34,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.34,
"fair_odds_home": 2.97,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.97,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.87,
"home_win_prob": 0.3362,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3362,
"over_25_prob": 0.765,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.235
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Denver Summit W or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Denver Summit W"
},
"away_xg": 2.15,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0525,
"edge_gap": 0.0962,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3804,
"model_prob": 0.4329,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 43.3,
"draw": 23.0,
"home": 33.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.44
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.44,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "NJ/NY Gotham FC Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.63,
"market_odds": 2.44,
"model_odds": 2.31,
"overround": 7.7,
"prob_edge": 2.3,
"value_pct": 5.6,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 13,
"away_failed_to_score": 5,
"away_played": 22,
"away_score_rate": 88.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 21,
"home_score_rate": 84.6,
"no_prob": 24.3,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 75.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 75.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.15,
"home_expected": 1.87,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"away": 3,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Denver Summit W or Draw",
"prob": 56.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Denver Summit W or NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"prob": 76.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"prob": 66.4
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Denver Summit W or NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"pick_prob": 76.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 43.3,
"draw_pct": 23.1,
"home_pct": 33.6,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 4.02,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 76.5,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 76.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 4.02,
"under_prob": 23.5
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 5.7,
"implied_prob": 41.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "NJ/NY Gotham FC Win",
"model_prob": 43.3,
"odds": 2.44
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 38.04,
"draw": 27.06,
"home": 34.9
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 17:59:44",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-06 17:30:10",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Denver Summit W",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.16,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.9,
"gap_pp": -1.23,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.06,
"gap_pp": -4.02,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 23.04
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.04,
"gap_pp": 5.25,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 43.29
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.22,
"gap_pp": 24.28,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 76.5
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 47.78,
"gap_pp": -24.28,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 23.5
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.66,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 34.9,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.19,
"implied_early_pct": 34.71,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.43,
"early": 3.34,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.06,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.37,
"implied_early_pct": 27.43,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.44,
"early": 2.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.04,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.18,
"implied_early_pct": 37.86,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.83,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.22,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.16,
"implied_early_pct": 51.06,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.0,
"early": 1.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 47.78,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.16,
"implied_early_pct": 48.94,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 24.3,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.3,
"ev": -0.142,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-2",
"market_odds": 11.0,
"market_prob": 0.0909,
"market_prob_pct": 9.1,
"model_prob": 0.078,
"model_prob_pct": 7.8,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
},
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.3
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 6.7
},
{
"label": "1-3",
"prob": 5.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.87,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0355,
"edge_pp": 3.5,
"market_prob": 0.5095,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0355,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.5449
},
"p_final": 0.5449,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 25.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3847,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0137,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.0355,
"ev": -0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.4551
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4153,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 41.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.5417,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -54.2,
"text": "-54.2%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4153,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 76.5,
"sort_key": 10523.77,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 23.5,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1695,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0356,
"edge_pp": 3.6,
"market_prob": 0.547,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.757,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1541,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1671,
"implied_prob": 0.453,
"model_prob": 0.243,
"p_final": 0.4207
},
"p_final": 0.5826,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2415,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0446,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1695,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0356,
"ev": -0.0446,
"implied_prob": 0.547,
"model_prob": 0.757,
"p_final": 0.5826
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5019,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -50.2,
"text": "-50.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3626,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3626,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 24.3,
"sort_key": 10326.34,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 75.7
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0187,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3804,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0187,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.9,
"text": "-1.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4329,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"sort_key": 1795.325,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 803.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-2",
"top_prob": 7.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"alert_team": "Denver Summit W",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.3,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.28,
"hero_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"market_prob_pct": 38.0,
"market_team": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"model_prob_pct": 43.3,
"model_team": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4153,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4153,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NJ/NY Gotham FC at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NJ/NY Gotham FC as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +41.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +41.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +41.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+41.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0187,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3804,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4329,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 59.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 59%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (59%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.28,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.28,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.15,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 59.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 1.87,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.15,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 1.87 \u00b7 Away xG 2.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +59%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"steam_team": "Denver Summit W",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4153,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4153,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NJ/NY Gotham FC at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NJ/NY Gotham FC as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +41.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +41.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +41.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+41.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0187,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3804,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4329,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 59.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 59%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Denver Summit W 1.87 xG vs NJ/NY Gotham FC 2.15 \u2192 NJ/NY Gotham FC 43.3%",
"Market: NJ/NY Gotham FC ~38.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Denver Summit W \u2193 -7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours NJ/NY Gotham FC, but sharp money moved toward Denver Summit W.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.28,
"fair_prob": 33.62,
"label": "Denver Summit W",
"market_prob": 34.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.0,
"fair_prob": 23.06,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.28,
"fair_prob": 43.32,
"label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"market_prob": 38.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 25.64,
"fair_prob": 76.5,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 50.86,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -25.64,
"fair_prob": 23.5,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 49.14,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.16,
"fair_prob": 75.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 54.54,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.16,
"fair_prob": 24.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 45.46,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.32,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"market_prob_pct": 38.04,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Denver Summit W"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates NJ/NY Gotham FC\u0027s win probability at 43.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 38.0%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.28,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.3,
"model_prob_pct": 43.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 25,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Denver Summit W 1.87 xG vs NJ/NY Gotham FC 2.15 \u2192 NJ/NY Gotham FC 43.3%",
"Market: NJ/NY Gotham FC ~38.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Denver Summit W \u2193 -7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours NJ/NY Gotham FC, but sharp money moved toward Denver Summit W.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.28,
"hero_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Denver Summit W odds shortened \u2193 -7.1%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Denver Summit W, with odds shortening by 7.1%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"note": "Buying interest on Denver Summit W \u2014 odds shortened by 7.1%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Denver Summit W, with odds shortening by 7.1%.",
"Buying interest on Denver Summit W \u2014 odds shortened by 7.1%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"At the same time, Denver Summit W has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.1%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.28,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 9.7 pp (at 43.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 9.7,
"max_prob_pct": 43.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.3,
"lead": "The model rates NJ/NY Gotham FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.28,
"edge_pp": -1.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.62,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Denver Summit W",
"market_prob_pct": 34.9,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.0,
"edge_pp": -4.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.06,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.28,
"edge_pp": 5.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.32,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"market_prob_pct": 38.04,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Denver Summit W \u2014 odds shortened by 7.1%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers NJ/NY Gotham FC (38.0%).",
"Denver Summit W has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -7.1%, 6/10).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 NJ/NY Gotham FC, Market \u2192 NJ/NY Gotham FC, Recent sharp money \u2192 Denver Summit W.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.98,
"closing_odds": 2.44,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.98,
"entry_odds": 2.44,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.8
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Denver Summit W (7.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.80",
"2.70",
"2.60"
],
"display": "3.35 \u2192 2.45 \u2192 2.60",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 44h",
"pick_team": "Denver Summit W",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.35"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.45"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.8,
2.66,
2.64,
2.6
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,12.6 37.3,14.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.60"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.8,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 6/10 sportsbooks on Denver Summit W",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Denver Summit W",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.6,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"summary": "Market moved toward Denver Summit W while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Denver Summit W",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/10",
"current_odds": 2.6,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"open_odds": 2.8,
"pick_team": "Denver Summit W",
"steam_score": 45,
"steam_team_name": "Denver Summit W",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"away_team_id": 3003,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3003.webp",
"away_team_name": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"away_team_public_id": "39xmuo81nmF4Ya",
"away_team_slug": "nj-ny-gotham-fc-w",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1508533,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": null,
"home_team_display_name": "Denver Summit W",
"home_team_id": 27378,
"home_team_logo": null,
"home_team_name": "Denver Summit W",
"home_team_public_id": "3CQ9eVVRldVP56",
"home_team_slug": "denver-summit-w",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_id": 254,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/254.webp",
"league_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_public_id": "2ZcWd6nHxKtiNe",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 18:00:00",
"public_id": "1S1osJ3t6bGYQz",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Centennial Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4146,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0187,
"implied_prob": 0.3804,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3804,
"draw": 0.2706,
"home": 0.349
},
"model_prob": 0.4329,
"p_final": 0.4022
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2819,
"best_odd": 3.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.1107,
"implied_prob": 0.2706,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3804,
"draw": 0.2706,
"home": 0.349
},
"model_prob": 0.2304,
"p_final": 0.2593
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4417,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0054,
"ev": -0.0862,
"implied_prob": 0.349,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3804,
"draw": 0.2706,
"home": 0.349
},
"model_prob": 0.3367,
"p_final": 0.3435
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": 0.0231,
"ev": 0.0563,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.4329
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.43,
"edge": -0.0611,
"ev": -0.2097,
"implied_prob": 0.2915,
"model_prob": 0.2304
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.0392,
"ev": -0.1044,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.3367
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1541,
"alpha_yes": 0.1695,
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.2116,
"edge_yes": 0.2116,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.5019,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1671,
"ev_yes": 0.3626,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0446,
"implied_no": 0.4546,
"implied_yes": 0.5454,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1541,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1671,
"implied_prob": 0.453,
"model_prob": 0.243,
"p_final": 0.4207
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1695,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0356,
"ev": -0.0446,
"implied_prob": 0.547,
"model_prob": 0.757,
"p_final": 0.5826
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.4207,
"p_final_yes": 0.5826,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1388,
"alpha_under": 0.1388,
"best_over_odd": 1.85,
"best_under_odd": 1.95,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.81,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.88,
"edge_over": 0.2564,
"edge_under": -0.2564,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4153,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0137,
"ev_under": -0.5417,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1445,
"implied_over": 0.5086,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5095,
"implied_under": 0.4914,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4905,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0355,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.5449
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.0355,
"ev": -0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.4551
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5449,
"p_final_under": 0.4551,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4153,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4153,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4153,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.3,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.3,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4153,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4153,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NJ/NY Gotham FC at 43.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 38.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NJ/NY Gotham FC as the value side (43.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +41.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +41.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +41.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+41.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Denver Summit W, but the model still strongly favours NJ/NY Gotham FC.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0187,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3804,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4329,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 59.3,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 59%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.28
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.757,
"draw_prob": 0.2304,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4329,
"over_prob": 0.765,
"total_xg": 4.02,
"under_prob": 0.235,
"xg_diff": 0.28
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0218,
"ev": -0.0187,
"implied_prob": 0.3804,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4329,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "NJ/NY Gotham FC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1695,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0356,
"market_prob": 0.547,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.757,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1541,
"best_odd": 1.98,
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1671,
"implied_prob": 0.453,
"model_prob": 0.243,
"p_final": 0.4207
},
"p_final": 0.5826,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0446,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1695,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": 0.0356,
"ev": -0.0446,
"implied_prob": 0.547,
"model_prob": 0.757,
"p_final": 0.5826
}
},
"edge": 0.2116,
"ev": 0.3626,
"implied_prob": 0.5454,
"model_prob": 0.757,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0355,
"market_prob": 0.5095,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"best_odd": 1.81,
"edge": 0.0355,
"ev": -0.0137,
"implied_prob": 0.5095,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"p_final": 0.5449
},
"p_final": 0.5449,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0137,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1388,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"edge": -0.0355,
"ev": -0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4905,
"model_prob": 0.235,
"p_final": 0.4551
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.2564,
"ev": 0.4153,
"implied_prob": 0.5086,
"model_prob": 0.765,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1508533,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4153,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4329,
"draw": 0.2304,
"home": 0.3367
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3626,
"implied_prob": 0.5454,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.757,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3626,
"implied_prob": 0.5454,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.757,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "NJ/NY Gotham FC",
"home": "Denver Summit W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.397131,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4153,
"implied_prob": 0.5086,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.765,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0187,
"consensus_ev_display": "-1.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3804,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4329,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0563,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+5.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508533,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T19:40:05.506166+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Denver Summit W & NJ/NY Gotham FC!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
NWSL Femenina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Utah Royals | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | OL Reign | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Houston Dash | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 13 | Bay FC | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 39 |
| 2 | Angel City W | 26 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 |
| 3 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 41 |
| 4 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | Utah Royals | 25 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 8 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 9 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 23 |
| 10 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 |
| 11 | OL Reign | 26 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 40 |
| 12 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 25 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 7.6 | 4.5 | +3.1 | 48 |
| 2 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 35 |
| 3 | Bay FC | 25 | 3.1 | 1.4 | +1.7 | 26 |
| 4 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 30 |
| 5 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | +1.1 | 39 |
| 6 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 3.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 26 |
| 7 | OL Reign | 26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | +0.9 | 40 |
| 8 | Utah Royals | 25 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 42 |
| 9 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 41 |
| 10 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -1.1 | 46 |
| 11 | Angel City W | 26 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 12 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 42 |
| 13 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 23 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 1.9 | 3.9 | -2.0 | 29 |
| 15 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | — | — | — | 54 |
