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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Chicago Red Stars Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-2, 2-1, 1-2, 1-1, 3-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Chicago Red Stars 0–0 Bay FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8574e9fd1b8c45f094cd0730a67723d8fbf4b143d65e7e116052d3940ad6bd39",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 2.02,
"away_win_prob": 0.3431,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.212,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.788,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2135,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.91,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.68,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.26,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.29,
"home_win_prob": 0.4434,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.804,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.196
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Bay FC",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Bay FC"
},
"away_xg": 2.02,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Chicago Red Stars",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2096,
"edge_gap": 0.0989,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.233,
"model_prob": 0.4426,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.4,
"draw": 21.4,
"home": 44.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 4.1
},
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 4.05
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 4.0
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"odd": 3.95
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 3.95
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 3.9
},
{
"affi_link": null,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"odd": 3.9
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.85
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.1,
"bookmaker_affi": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"display_market": "Chicago Red Stars Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 4.29,
"market_odds": 3.86,
"model_odds": 2.26,
"overround": 11.3,
"prob_edge": 19.9,
"value_pct": 81.4,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 4,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 17,
"away_score_rate": 86.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 2,
"home_failed_to_score": 12,
"home_played": 17,
"home_score_rate": 89.9,
"no_prob": 21.2,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 78.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 78.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 2.02,
"home_expected": 2.29,
"scores": [
{
"away": 2,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 6.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-2",
"prob": 5.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Chicago Red Stars or Draw",
"prob": 65.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Chicago Red Stars or Bay FC",
"prob": 78.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Bay FC",
"prob": 55.6
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Chicago Red Stars or Bay FC",
"pick_prob": 78.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.3,
"draw_pct": 21.3,
"home_pct": 44.3,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Chicago Red Stars"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 4.31,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 0.5,
"over_prob": 80.4,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 80.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 4.31,
"under_prob": 19.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"edge": 81.6,
"implied_prob": 24.4,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Chicago Red Stars Win",
"model_prob": 44.3,
"odds": 4.1
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.5,
"ev": 0.08,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "2-2",
"market_odds": 15.0,
"market_prob": 0.0667,
"market_prob_pct": 6.7,
"model_prob": 0.072,
"model_prob_pct": 7.2,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "2-2",
"prob": 7.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.1
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.3
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 6.2
},
{
"label": "3-2",
"prob": 5.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 2.29,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "value_alert",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 3.875,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0667,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.7,
"text": "+6.7%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2321,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0667,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.7,
"text": "+6.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4426,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7151,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+71.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Chicago Red Stars",
"sort_key": 10210.03,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 80.4,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 19.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 21.2,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 78.8
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 801.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-2",
"top_prob": 7.2
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Chicago Red Stars",
"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"model_team": "Chicago Red Stars",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Chicago Red Stars), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Chicago Red Stars), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0667,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8145,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chicago Red Stars at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chicago Red Stars as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chicago Red Stars",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Chicago Red Stars \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +81% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508501 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Chicago Red Stars), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +81% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0667,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.875,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2321,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4426,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25806451612903225,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7151,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+71.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 69.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 70%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"bet_status": "value_alert",
"books_breadth_display": "6/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.46153846153846156,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (70%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 4.6,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 2.02,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 70.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.29,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.29,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.29 \u00b7 Away xG 2.02 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +70%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Chicago Red Stars), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Chicago Red Stars), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0667,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8145,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chicago Red Stars at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chicago Red Stars as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chicago Red Stars",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Chicago Red Stars \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +81% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508501 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Chicago Red Stars), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +81% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0667,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.875,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2321,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4426,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25806451612903225,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7151,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+71.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 69.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 70%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chicago Red Stars 2.29 xG vs Bay FC 2.02 \u2192 Chicago Red Stars 44.3%",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chicago Red Stars with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 44.34,
"label": "Chicago Red Stars",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 21.35,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 34.31,
"label": "Bay FC",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 80.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 19.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 78.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 21.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Chicago Red Stars",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 23.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 21.1,
"model_prob_pct": 44.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Chicago Red Stars \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+21.1 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 56,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "value_alert",
"label": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Chicago Red Stars 2.29 xG vs Bay FC 2.02 \u2192 Chicago Red Stars 44.3%",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +2.8%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Chicago Red Stars with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +2.8%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.0 pp (at 44.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.0,
"max_prob_pct": 44.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.34,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chicago Red Stars",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bay FC",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Chicago Red Stars (44.3%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.8%, 6/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Chicago Red Stars \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 27.03,
"entry_odds": 3.7,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 31m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.91 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.70) \u2014 net 2.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.65",
"3.60"
],
"display": "3.91 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 43h 31m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.91"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Bay FC",
"away_team_id": 22943,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/22943.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bay FC",
"away_team_name_canonical": "Bay FC",
"away_team_slug": "bay-fc",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1508501,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Chicago Red Stars",
"home_team_id": 2997,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2997.webp",
"home_team_name": "Chicago Red Stars",
"home_team_slug": "chicago-red-stars-w",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_id": 254,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/254.webp",
"league_name": "NWSL Femenina",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-09 23:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "SeatGeek Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4415,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0778,
"ev": -0.2352,
"implied_prob": 0.5198,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5198,
"draw": 0.2481,
"home": 0.2321
},
"model_prob": 0.3437,
"p_final": 0.4421
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2845,
"best_odd": 3.625,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0098,
"ev": -0.1361,
"implied_prob": 0.2481,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5198,
"draw": 0.2481,
"home": 0.2321
},
"model_prob": 0.2137,
"p_final": 0.2383
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2053,
"best_odd": 3.875,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0432,
"ev": 0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.2321,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5198,
"draw": 0.2481,
"home": 0.2321
},
"model_prob": 0.4426,
"p_final": 0.2753
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.79,
"edge": -0.2149,
"ev": -0.3848,
"implied_prob": 0.5587,
"model_prob": 0.3437
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.91,
"edge": -0.042,
"ev": -0.1644,
"implied_prob": 0.2558,
"model_prob": 0.2137
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.1,
"edge": 0.1987,
"ev": 0.8145,
"implied_prob": 0.2439,
"model_prob": 0.4426
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.31,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0667,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8145,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0667,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 5.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 5.6
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "value_alert",
"final_decision": {
"action": "value_alert",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Chicago Red Stars), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0667,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8145,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 5.6,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 56,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Chicago Red Stars at 44.3%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Chicago Red Stars as the value side (44.3%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "AI Value Alert - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25c6",
"label": "Value Alert \u2014 not Primary",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Chicago Red Stars",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Chicago Red Stars \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +81% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1508501 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +6.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 5.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Chicago Red Stars), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.6/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +81% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0667,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.875,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2321,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4426,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25806451612903225,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7151,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+71.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 69.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 70%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.788,
"draw_prob": 0.2137,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4426,
"over_prob": 0.804,
"total_xg": 4.31,
"under_prob": 0.196,
"xg_diff": 0.27
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.875,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0432,
"ev": 0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.2321,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4426,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chicago Red Stars"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.788,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.804,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1508501,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0667,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3437,
"draw": 0.2137,
"home": 0.4426
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bay FC",
"home": "Chicago Red Stars"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.023617,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0667,
"implied_prob": 0.2321,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4426,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Chicago Red Stars",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0667,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.875,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2321,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4426,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25806451612903225,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7151,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+71.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1508501,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-09T19:34:45.725046+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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NWSL Femenina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 48 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 46 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 5 | Utah Royals | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 42 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 41 |
| 8 | OL Reign | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 40 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 39 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 30 |
| 12 | Houston Dash | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 29 |
| 13 | Bay FC | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 26 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 23 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 48 | 37 | +11 | 39 |
| 2 | Angel City W | 26 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 42 |
| 3 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 41 |
| 4 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 42 | 34 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 35 |
| 6 | Utah Royals | 25 | 41 | 33 | +8 | 42 |
| 7 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 38 | 27 | +11 | 48 |
| 8 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 36 | 24 | +12 | 46 |
| 9 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 23 |
| 10 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 54 |
| 11 | OL Reign | 26 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 40 |
| 12 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 26 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 29 |
| 15 | Bay FC | 25 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 15 | 60 | -45 | 17 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave | 26 | 7.6 | 4.5 | +3.1 | 48 |
| 2 | Denver Summit W | 26 | 3.9 | 1.9 | +2.0 | 35 |
| 3 | Bay FC | 25 | 3.1 | 1.4 | +1.7 | 26 |
| 4 | Orlando Pride | 25 | 4.6 | 3.5 | +1.1 | 30 |
| 5 | North Carolina Courage | 25 | 2.3 | 1.2 | +1.1 | 39 |
| 6 | Boston Legacy W | 26 | 3.9 | 2.9 | +1.0 | 26 |
| 7 | OL Reign | 26 | 3.2 | 2.3 | +0.9 | 40 |
| 8 | Utah Royals | 25 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -0.4 | 42 |
| 9 | Kansas City Current | 26 | 3.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 | 41 |
| 10 | Washington Spirit | 26 | 1.2 | 2.3 | -1.1 | 46 |
| 11 | Angel City W | 26 | 1.7 | 3.0 | -1.3 | 42 |
| 12 | Portland Thorns | 25 | 3.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 42 |
| 13 | Racing Louisville | 26 | 1.4 | 3.1 | -1.7 | 23 |
| 14 | Houston Dash | 25 | 1.9 | 3.9 | -2.0 | 29 |
| 15 | Chicago Red Stars | 26 | 1.2 | 3.5 | -2.3 | 17 |
| 16 | NJ/NY Gotham FC | 26 | — | — | — | 54 |
