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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Kiyovu Sports Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-1 0-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.19
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Kiyovu Sports 0–0 Muhanga
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Kiyovu Sports or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Kiyovu Sports"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Kiyovu Sports",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0114,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4063,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 16,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 48.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 17,
"home_failed_to_score": 13,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 58.1,
"no_prob": 71.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 71.9,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 28.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 0.6,
"home_expected": 1.2,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
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},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 16.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 11.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kiyovu Sports or Draw",
"prob": 90.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kiyovu Sports or Muhanga",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Muhanga",
"prob": 55.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Kiyovu Sports or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 45.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Kiyovu Sports"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 1.8,
"away_avg_scored": 0.6,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 26.9,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 73.1,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 1.8,
"under_prob": 73.1
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Muhanga",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Kiyovu Sports",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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},
{
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},
{
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"kind": "1x2_a",
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{
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"kind": "ou_o",
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{
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"movement": [
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.45,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.65,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 19.1,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 19.8
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.462,
"ev_under": 0.3523,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3523,
"over_prob": 26.9,
"sort_key": 10467.07,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 73.1,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"ev_yes": -0.4942,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 71.9,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0992,
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"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4063,
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"side_label": "Kiyovu Sports",
"sort_key": 1775.2,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 839.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-0",
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}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 5319,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/5319.webp",
"away_team_name": "Muhanga",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/rw.svg",
"country_name": "Rwanda",
"fixture_id": 1507935,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 5317,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/5317.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kiyovu Sports",
"league_country": "Rwanda",
"league_id": 405,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/405.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Nacional de F\u00fatbol de Ruanda",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-16 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 2.65,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0045,
"ev": -0.1221,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3313
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2994,
"best_odd": 3.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0004,
"ev": -0.1115,
"implied_prob": 0.2579,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2575
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"best_odd": 2.19,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.4063,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
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}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"edge_no": 0.2281,
"edge_yes": -0.2281,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3517,
"ev_yes": -0.4942,
"implied_no": 0.4909,
"implied_yes": 0.5091,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.0,
"best_under_odd": 1.85,
"edge_over": -0.201,
"edge_under": 0.201,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.462,
"ev_under": 0.3523,
"implied_over": 0.47,
"implied_under": 0.53,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3523,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.281,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.269,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.731,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.005,
"ev": -0.0992,
"implied_prob": 0.4063,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kiyovu Sports"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2281,
"ev": 0.3517,
"implied_prob": 0.4909,
"model_prob": 0.719,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.201,
"ev": 0.3523,
"implied_prob": 0.53,
"model_prob": 0.731,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1507935,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3523,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3517,
"implied_prob": 0.4909,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.719,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3517,
"implied_prob": 0.4909,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.719,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Muhanga",
"home": "Kiyovu Sports"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.257531,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3523,
"implied_prob": 0.53,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.731,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1507935,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T13:00:24.567715+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Nacional de Fútbol de Ruanda — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 75 |
| 2 | APR FC | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 68 |
| 3 | Al Merreikh | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 59 |
| 4 | Rayon Sports | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 56 |
| 5 | Kiyovu Sports | 34 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 53 |
| 6 | Police FC | 34 | 12 | 16 | 6 | 52 |
| 7 | Mukura Victory Sports | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 47 |
| 8 | Marines | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 45 |
| 9 | Bugesera | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 44 |
| 10 | Musanze | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 43 |
| 11 | Gorilla FC | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 40 |
| 12 | Gicumbi FC | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 |
| 13 | Etincelles FC | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 37 |
| 14 | AS Kigali | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 35 |
| 15 | Gasogi United | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 35 |
| 16 | Amagaju FC | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 35 |
| 17 | Muhanga | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 31 |
| 18 | Rutsiro | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal Omdurman | 34 | 74 | 25 | +49 | 75 |
| 2 | APR FC | 34 | 50 | 28 | +22 | 68 |
| 3 | Marines | 34 | 47 | 43 | +4 | 45 |
| 4 | Al Merreikh | 34 | 41 | 24 | +17 | 59 |
| 5 | Rayon Sports | 34 | 40 | 30 | +10 | 56 |
| 6 | Musanze | 34 | 38 | 37 | +1 | 43 |
| 7 | Gicumbi FC | 34 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 38 |
| 8 | Mukura Victory Sports | 34 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 47 |
| 9 | Kiyovu Sports | 34 | 34 | 21 | +13 | 53 |
| 10 | Bugesera | 34 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 44 |
| 11 | Etincelles FC | 34 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 37 |
| 12 | Gorilla FC | 34 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 40 |
| 13 | Rutsiro | 34 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 29 |
| 14 | Police FC | 34 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 52 |
| 15 | Gasogi United | 34 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 35 |
| 16 | AS Kigali | 34 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 35 |
| 17 | Muhanga | 34 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 31 |
| 18 | Amagaju FC | 34 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 35 |
