Colo Colo vs Cobresal Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_draw_prob": 0.1449,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.7542,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1009,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1009,
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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.679,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1449,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.1449,
      "fair_odds_away": 9.91,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 9.91,
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      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 6.9,
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      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.33,
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      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.7542,
      "over_25_prob": 0.816,
      "prediction_confidence": "low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.184
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    "api_prediction": {
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      "main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Colo Colo"
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        "edge_gap": 0.6083,
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        "pick_type": "no_value",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 10.1,
          "draw": 14.5,
          "home": 75.4
        },
        "reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
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      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.26
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.32,
        "market_odds": 1.26,
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        "overround": 5.1,
        "prob_edge": -4.2,
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        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_failed_to_score": 3,
        "away_played": 14,
        "away_score_rate": 70.2,
        "home_clean_sheet": 6,
        "home_failed_to_score": 2,
        "home_played": 14,
        "home_score_rate": 95.9,
        "no_prob": 32.1,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 67.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
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      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.21,
        "home_expected": 3.2,
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            "away": 0,
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          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Colo Colo or Draw",
            "prob": 89.9
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Colo Colo or Cobresal",
            "prob": 85.5
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          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Cobresal",
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        ],
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      "over_under": {
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        "home_avg_scored": 1.9,
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        "market": "Cobresal Win",
        "model_prob": 10.1,
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      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Cobresal",
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      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Colo Colo",
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          "model_pct": 75.36
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        "label": "3-1",
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    "home_xg": 3.2,
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
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          "raw_pct": -38.7,
          "text": "-38.7%"
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        "alert_breadth": "11/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +9.1%",
        "alert_team": "Draw",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "has_alert": true,
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        "hero_label": "Cobresal",
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        "model_prob_pct": 75.4,
        "model_team": "Colo Colo",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable forecast",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 61,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -0.1,
          "fair_prob": 75.42,
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          "outcome": "home"
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        {
          "edge_pp": -0.64,
          "fair_prob": 14.49,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 15.13,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 0.74,
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          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 17.16,
          "fair_prob": 81.6,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 64.44,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -17.16,
          "fair_prob": 18.4,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 35.56,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 17.59,
          "fair_prob": 67.9,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 50.31,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -17.59,
          "fair_prob": 32.1,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 49.69,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "aligned",
        "edge_pp": 0.74,
        "fair_prob_pct": 10.09,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Cobresal",
        "market_prob_pct": 9.35,
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "steam_team_name": "Draw"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "aligned",
          "edge_status": "market_efficient",
          "max_gap_pp": 0.74,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "",
        "divergence_level": "aligned",
        "divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
        "divergence_note": "",
        "divergence_tier": "aligned",
        "edge_label": "Aligned",
        "edge_label_key": "aligned",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Strong favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Colo Colo",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
          "market_prob_pct": 75.5,
          "model_prob_pct": 75.4,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "The model and market both identify Colo Colo as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Forecast Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 0.74,
        "hero_label": "Cobresal",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +9.1%.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "aligned",
          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
            "At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on Draw."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 0.74,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 60.9 pp (at 75.4%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 60.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 75.4,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.1,
            "fair_prob_pct": 75.42,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Colo Colo",
            "market_prob_pct": 75.52,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -0.64,
            "fair_prob_pct": 14.49,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 15.13,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": 0.74,
            "fair_prob_pct": 10.09,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Cobresal",
            "market_prob_pct": 9.35,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "market_efficient",
        "status_label": "Market Efficient",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 9.1% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Colo Colo (75.5%).",
          "However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +9.1%, 11/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Colo Colo, Market \u2192 Colo Colo, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 9.82,
        "closing_odds": 10.18,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 9.82,
        "entry_odds": 10.18,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Forecast Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 11,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "11/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 6.0,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
        "move_pct_abs": 9.1,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Draw (9.1%, 11/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "6.30 \u2192 4.83 \u2192 6.00",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
          "pick_team": "Draw",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "6.30"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "4.83"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "6.00"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.6",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 5.5,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2191 +9.1% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2191 +9.1% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "SBO",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 61,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "11/13",
        "current_odds": 6.0,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +9.1%",
        "open_odds": 5.5,
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "steam_score": 61,
        "steam_team_name": "Draw",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 0.7,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
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      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2331,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2331.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Cobresal",
      "country_code": "CL",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/cl.svg",
      "country_name": "Chile",
      "fixture_id": 1505460,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Chile",
      "home_team_id": 2315,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2315.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Colo Colo",
      "league_country": "Chile",
      "league_id": 265,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/265.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-13 21:30:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Santiago de Chile",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Monumental David Arellano"
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      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
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      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
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            "best_odd": 10.18,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0015,
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            "implied_prob": 0.0935,
            "model_prob": 0.1011,
            "p_final": 0.095
          },
          "draw": {
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            "best_odd": 6.29,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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            "edge": -0.0012,
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            "model_prob": 0.1453,
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          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.5985,
            "best_odd": 1.26,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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        },
        "btts": {
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          "best_yes_odd": 1.9,
          "edge_no": -0.1759,
          "edge_yes": 0.1759,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.3869,
          "ev_yes": 0.2901,
          "implied_no": 0.4969,
          "implied_yes": 0.5031,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
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          "best_under_odd": 2.7,
          "edge_over": 0.1716,
          "edge_under": -0.1716,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.224,
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          "implied_over": 0.6444,
          "implied_under": 0.3556,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
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      "match_tier": "value_game",
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      "total_xg": 4.41,
      "variance_flag": false
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    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.2901,
      "confidence": 7.5,
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          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
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          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
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        "score": 7.5
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      "execution": {
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        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
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      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
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      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.679,
          "draw_prob": 0.1453,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.7536,
          "over_prob": 0.816,
          "total_xg": 4.41,
          "under_prob": 0.184,
          "xg_diff": 1.99
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
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      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": -0.001,
          "ev": -0.0496,
          "implied_prob": 0.7552,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.7536,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Colo Colo"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "implied_prob": 0.5031,
          "model_prob": 0.679,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1716,
          "ev": 0.224,
          "implied_prob": 0.6444,
          "model_prob": 0.816,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
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      },
      "match_id": 1505460,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.2901,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1011,
        "draw": 0.1453,
        "home": 0.7536
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
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      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.224,
        "implied_prob": 0.6444,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
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        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
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      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
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          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.816,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
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          "slot": "secondary"
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      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Cobresal",
        "home": "Colo Colo"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.196978,
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        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.679,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
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      "valid_markets_count": 2
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  },
  "fixture_id": 1505460,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T21:29:04.578212+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}