Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Laholm Atvidabergs FF ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.07
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Atvidabergs FF win · Laholm 1–2 Atvidabergs FF
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "bfc3d69aa1ecf6f53ae5c935f80fd21ffc1a8fb56f0227993b6f3e3d9d449821",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3424,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.92,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.77,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"home_win_prob": 0.3611,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Atvidabergs FF",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Atvidabergs FF"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Laholm",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.057,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3039,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.2,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 36.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.01
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.01,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Laholm Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.29,
"market_odds": 3.01,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 9.3,
"prob_edge": 2.9,
"value_pct": 8.7,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 73.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.32,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Laholm or Draw",
"prob": 65.7
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Laholm or Atvidabergs FF",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Atvidabergs FF",
"prob": 63.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Laholm or Atvidabergs FF",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.2,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 36.1,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Laholm"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.7,
"implied_prob": 33.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Laholm Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 3.01
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Atvidabergs FF",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 44.19,
"draw": 25.41,
"home": 30.39
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:56:47",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-26 13:34:05",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Laholm",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.39,
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.41,
"gap_pp": 4.26,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.19,
"gap_pp": -9.96,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.81,
"gap_pp": -8.61,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.19,
"gap_pp": 8.61,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.01,
"early": 3.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.39,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.39,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.6,
"early": 3.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.41,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.07,
"early": 2.07,
"implied_closing_pct": 44.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 44.19,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.65,
"early": 1.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.81,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.81,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.17,
"early": 2.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.19,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.0625,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.5,
"market_prob": 0.1333,
"market_prob_pct": 13.3,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.32,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0085,
"edge_pp": 0.9,
"market_prob": 0.4037,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0684,
"implied_prob": 0.4037,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4122
},
"p_final": 0.4122,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0283,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0684,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.5963,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5846
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.4,
"text": "-14.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1966,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10326.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"edge_pp": 1.6,
"market_prob": 0.437,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5454
},
"p_final": 0.453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0878,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.453
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.5,
"text": "-19.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.6,
"text": "+16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1655,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10148.95,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.0381,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0381,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.8,
"text": "-3.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Laholm",
"sort_key": 1790.475,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"alert_team": "Laholm",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.95,
"hero_label": "Atvidabergs FF",
"market_prob_pct": 30.4,
"market_team": "Atvidabergs FF",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Laholm",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Laholm)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Laholm)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Laholm at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Laholm as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Laholm",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Laholm).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0381,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 83,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.95,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.95,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"steam_team": "Laholm",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Laholm).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Laholm)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Laholm)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Laholm at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Laholm as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Laholm",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Laholm).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0381,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Laholm 1.32 xG vs Atvidabergs FF 1.28 \u2192 Laholm 36.1%",
"Market: Atvidabergs FF ~30.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Laholm \u2193 -9.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Laholm with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.72,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Laholm",
"market_prob": 30.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.24,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 25.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.95,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Atvidabergs FF",
"market_prob": 44.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.43,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 56.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.43,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 43.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.75,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 60.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.75,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 39.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Atvidabergs FF",
"market_prob_pct": 44.19,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Laholm"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Atvidabergs FF\u0027s win probability at 44.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.95,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Laholm",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 30.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 5.7,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 83,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Laholm \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 87,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 71,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Laholm 1.32 xG vs Atvidabergs FF 1.28 \u2192 Laholm 36.1%",
"Market: Atvidabergs FF ~30.4% implied",
"Market Steam: Laholm \u2193 -9.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Laholm with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.95,
"hero_label": "Atvidabergs FF",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Laholm odds shortened \u2193 -9.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Laholm, with odds shortening by 9.7%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Atvidabergs FF. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Laholm \u2014 odds shortened by 9.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Atvidabergs FF. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Laholm, with odds shortening by 9.7%.",
"Buying interest on Laholm \u2014 odds shortened by 9.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Atvidabergs FF above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Laholm has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 9.7%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.95,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Atvidabergs FF",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices Atvidabergs FF higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.72,
"edge_pp": 5.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Laholm",
"market_prob_pct": 30.39,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.24,
"edge_pp": 4.24,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.41,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.95,
"edge_pp": -9.95,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atvidabergs FF",
"market_prob_pct": 44.19,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Laholm \u2014 odds shortened by 9.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atvidabergs FF (30.4%).",
"However, Laholm has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -9.7%, 5/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Laholm, Market \u2192 Atvidabergs FF, Recent sharp money \u2192 Laholm.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.31,
"closing_odds": 2.07,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.31,
"entry_odds": 2.07,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.0
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 77h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Laholm (9.7%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -9.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.10",
"2.95",
"2.80"
],
"display": "3.29 \u2192 2.80 \u2192 2.80",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 77h 56m",
"pick_team": "Laholm",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.29"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.1,
3.01,
2.8
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,5.4 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.80"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.1,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 5/8 sportsbooks on Laholm",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Laholm",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.8,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Laholm",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.8,
"move_display": "\u2193 -9.7%",
"open_odds": 3.1,
"pick_team": "Laholm",
"steam_score": 58,
"steam_team_name": "Laholm",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "atvidabergs-ff",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atvidabergs FF",
"away_team_id": 2162,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2162.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atvidabergs FF",
"away_team_public_id": "3SCwr6lfXOydxL",
"away_team_slug": "atvidabergs-ff",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_display_name": "Sweden",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_id": 148,
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1504556,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_display_name": "Laholm",
"home_team_id": 12657,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/12657.webp",
"home_team_name": "Laholm",
"home_team_public_id": "3zOaLA6wUshAfH",
"home_team_slug": "laholm",
"ht.home_team_slug": "laholm",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_country_display": "Sweden",
"league_display_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
"league_id": 564,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/564.webp",
"league_name": "Ettan - S\u00f6dra",
"league_public_id": "3mv3qLswDEZqW8",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 14:00:00",
"public_id": "0dvQZPkldrSZ5v",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Laholm",
"venue_name": "Glanninge Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3828,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0381,
"ev": -0.1641,
"implied_prob": 0.4419,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4419,
"draw": 0.2541,
"home": 0.3039
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4038
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2809,
"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.012,
"ev": -0.0421,
"implied_prob": 0.2541,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4419,
"draw": 0.2541,
"home": 0.3039
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2661
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2743,
"best_odd": 3.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4419,
"draw": 0.2541,
"home": 0.3039
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.3196
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.1407,
"ev": -0.2912,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.6,
"edge": 0.0189,
"ev": 0.068,
"implied_prob": 0.2778,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.01,
"edge": 0.0287,
"ev": 0.0864,
"implied_prob": 0.3322,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1661,
"alpha_yes": 0.2285,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0575,
"edge_yes": -0.0575,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0684,
"ev_yes": -0.1443,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1056,
"implied_no": 0.3975,
"implied_yes": 0.6025,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0684,
"implied_prob": 0.4037,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4122
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.5963,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5846
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.4122,
"p_final_yes": 0.5846,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2174,
"alpha_under": 0.1977,
"best_over_odd": 1.67,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.63,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0843,
"edge_under": 0.0843,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1951,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.111,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0487,
"implied_over": 0.5663,
"implied_over_mf": 0.563,
"implied_under": 0.4337,
"implied_under_mf": 0.437,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5454
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.453
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5454,
"p_final_under": 0.453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Laholm)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1966,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1966,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 87,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Laholm at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 30.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Laholm as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Laholm",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +19.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +19.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "83 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+19.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Laholm).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 83,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0381,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0156,
"ev": -0.0381,
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Laholm"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0085,
"market_prob": 0.4037,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1661,
"best_odd": 2.26,
"edge": 0.0085,
"ev": -0.0684,
"implied_prob": 0.4037,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.4122
},
"p_final": 0.4122,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0684,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2285,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0117,
"ev": -0.1056,
"implied_prob": 0.5963,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.5846
}
},
"edge": 0.0575,
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3975,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"market_prob": 0.437,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2174,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0176,
"ev": -0.111,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5454
},
"p_final": 0.453,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0487,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1977,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.016,
"ev": -0.0487,
"implied_prob": 0.437,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.453
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0843,
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4337,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1504556,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1966,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4337,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4337,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atvidabergs FF",
"home": "Laholm"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.089453,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.3975,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0381,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.8%",
"consensus_odds": 3.01,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3039,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+5.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 5.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.33222591362126247,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0863,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+8.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1504556,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T13:56:49.274023+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Laholm & Atvidabergs FF!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Ettan - Södra — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborgs FF | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 51 |
| 2 | Atvidabergs FF | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 45 |
| 3 | Hässleholms IF | 24 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 42 |
| 4 | Lund | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 41 |
| 5 | AFC Malmö | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 38 |
| 6 | Rosengård | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 38 |
| 7 | Trollhättan | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 37 |
| 8 | Jönköpings Södra | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 9 | Tvååker | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 10 | IFK Olympic | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 30 |
| 11 | Skövde AIK | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 30 |
| 12 | Eskilsminne | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 13 | Kristianstad | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 27 |
| 14 | Laholm | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 22 |
| 15 | Ängelholms FF | 24 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 18 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 24 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trelleborgs FF | 24 | 53 | 28 | +25 | 51 |
| 2 | Atvidabergs FF | 24 | 48 | 34 | +14 | 45 |
| 3 | Lund | 24 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 41 |
| 4 | Hässleholms IF | 24 | 44 | 29 | +15 | 42 |
| 5 | AFC Malmö | 24 | 44 | 35 | +9 | 38 |
| 6 | Rosengård | 24 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 38 |
| 7 | Trollhättan | 24 | 41 | 36 | +5 | 37 |
| 8 | IFK Olympic | 24 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 30 |
| 9 | Eskilsminne | 24 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 29 |
| 10 | Tvååker | 24 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 33 |
| 11 | Laholm | 24 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 22 |
| 12 | Jönköpings Södra | 24 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 33 |
| 13 | Kristianstad | 24 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 27 |
| 14 | Skövde AIK | 24 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 30 |
| 15 | Ängelholms FF | 24 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 18 |
| 16 | Utsikten | 24 | 21 | 57 | -36 | 12 |
