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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Puerto Nuevo Deportivo Paraguayo ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.79
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Deportivo Paraguayo win · Puerto Nuevo 2–3 Deportivo Paraguayo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.3239,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
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"fair_odds_away": 3.09,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.36,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Puerto Nuevo or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Puerto Nuevo"
},
"away_xg": 1.24,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Puerto Nuevo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0591,
"edge_gap": 0.0566,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4394,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.4,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.02
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.02,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Puerto Nuevo Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.28,
"market_odds": 2.02,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 12.7,
"prob_edge": -11.5,
"value_pct": -23.2,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 10,
"away_failed_to_score": 19,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 71.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 12,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 28,
"home_score_rate": 74.3,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.24,
"home_expected": 1.36,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
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"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Puerto Nuevo or Draw",
"prob": 67.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Puerto Nuevo or Deportivo Paraguayo",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Deportivo Paraguayo",
"prob": 62.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Puerto Nuevo or Deportivo Paraguayo",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"edge": 22.8,
"implied_prob": 26.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Deportivo Paraguayo Win",
"model_prob": 32.4,
"odds": 3.79
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.42,
"draw": 32.63,
"home": 43.94
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:59:53",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:31:00",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Puerto Nuevo",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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"gap_pp": -5.91,
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"model_pct": 38.03
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.63,
"gap_pp": -3.04,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
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"gap_pp": 8.95,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 32.37
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.85,
"gap_pp": 15.35,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 67.15,
"gap_pp": -15.35,
"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.02,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.72,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.79,
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},
{
"closing": 2.78,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.8,
"ev": -0.125,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
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"market_prob": 0.1429,
"market_prob_pct": 14.3,
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"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.36,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"available": true,
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"edge": 0.0214,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3894,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1901,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5812
},
"p_final": 0.4108,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2838,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0306,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.3894,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4108
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3023,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -30.2,
"text": "-30.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.36,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.36,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10474.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"edge": 0.021,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3309,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3519
},
"p_final": 0.3519,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3207,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0289,
"ev": -0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.6691,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6402
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.34,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 34.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.4,
"text": "-25.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.34,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10306.0,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1613,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.1,
"text": "-16.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0242,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.4,
"text": "-2.4%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2318,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Puerto Nuevo",
"sort_key": 1793.95,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/7",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/7 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"alert_team": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.97,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"market_prob_pct": 43.9,
"market_team": "Puerto Nuevo",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Puerto Nuevo",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puerto Nuevo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puerto Nuevo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.36,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.36,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puerto Nuevo at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puerto Nuevo as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puerto Nuevo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puerto Nuevo).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1613,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2318,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "1/7",
"breadth_ratio": 0.14285714285714285,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.4,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 76,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.97,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.97,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.24,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.36,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.36,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.36 \u00b7 Away xG 1.24 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"steam_team": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puerto Nuevo).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puerto Nuevo)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puerto Nuevo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.36,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.36,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puerto Nuevo at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puerto Nuevo as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puerto Nuevo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puerto Nuevo).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1613,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2318,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Puerto Nuevo 1.36 xG vs Deportivo Paraguayo 1.24 \u2192 Puerto Nuevo 38.0%",
"Market: Puerto Nuevo ~43.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Paraguayo odds \u2191 +5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Puerto Nuevo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -5.93,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Puerto Nuevo",
"market_prob": 43.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.04,
"fair_prob": 29.59,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.63,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.97,
"fair_prob": 32.39,
"label": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"market_prob": 23.42,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.62,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.62,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.72,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.68,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.72,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.32,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"market_prob_pct": 23.42,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Paraguayo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Deportivo Paraguayo\u0027s win probability at 32.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.4%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.97,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Puerto Nuevo",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.9,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 76,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Puerto Nuevo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 79,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Puerto Nuevo 1.36 xG vs Deportivo Paraguayo 1.24 \u2192 Puerto Nuevo 38.0%",
"Market: Puerto Nuevo ~43.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Deportivo Paraguayo odds \u2191 +5.6%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Puerto Nuevo with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.97,
"hero_label": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Deportivo Paraguayo odds lengthened \u2191 +5.6%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Paraguayo.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Deportivo Paraguayo.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/7 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Deportivo Paraguayo.",
"Recent line movement on Deportivo Paraguayo (\u2191 +5.6%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/7), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.97,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.6 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.0,
"lead": "The model rates Deportivo Paraguayo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.0,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -5.93,
"edge_pp": -5.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Puerto Nuevo",
"market_prob_pct": 43.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.04,
"edge_pp": -3.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.63,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.97,
"edge_pp": 8.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.39,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"market_prob_pct": 23.42,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Puerto Nuevo (43.9%).",
"Deportivo Paraguayo odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.6%, 1/7) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Puerto Nuevo \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 26.39,
"closing_odds": 3.79,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 26.39,
"entry_odds": 3.79,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6
}
],
"books_total": 7,
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.6,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Deportivo Paraguayo (swing 4.75 \u2192 3.76 \u2192 4.75) \u2014 net 5.6% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.6,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.75",
"4.27",
"3.79"
],
"display": "4.75 \u2192 3.76 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 16h",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.76"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
4.5,
3.79,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,4.7 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.79"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 4.5,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/7",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.6%",
"open_odds": 4.5,
"pick_team": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_team_name": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "deportivo-paraguayo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"away_team_id": 8394,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8394.webp",
"away_team_name": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"away_team_public_id": "3uhzWptZmr7iaU",
"away_team_slug": "deportivo-paraguayo",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1500120,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Puerto Nuevo",
"home_team_id": 8397,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8397.webp",
"home_team_name": "Puerto Nuevo",
"home_team_public_id": "1E5b7xO4dzcoR0",
"home_team_slug": "puerto-nuevo",
"ht.home_team_slug": "puerto-nuevo",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera C",
"league_id": 132,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/132.webp",
"league_name": "Primera C",
"league_public_id": "5iJhpsMWwrB2VM",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 18:00:00",
"public_id": "27xOMyImalnqq5",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2597,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": -0.0242,
"implied_prob": 0.2342,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2342,
"draw": 0.3263,
"home": 0.4394
},
"model_prob": 0.3237,
"p_final": 0.2575
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4295,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0131,
"ev": -0.1479,
"implied_prob": 0.3263,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2342,
"draw": 0.3263,
"home": 0.4394
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.3133
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4101,
"best_odd": 2.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0242,
"ev": -0.1613,
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2342,
"draw": 0.3263,
"home": 0.4394
},
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"p_final": 0.4152
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.79,
"edge": 0.0599,
"ev": 0.2269,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"model_prob": 0.3237
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.0717,
"ev": -0.195,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.02,
"edge": -0.1147,
"ev": -0.2317,
"implied_prob": 0.495,
"model_prob": 0.3803
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1901,
"alpha_yes": 0.1383,
"best_no_odd": 1.53,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1572,
"edge_yes": 0.1572,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3023,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1253,
"ev_yes": 0.36,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0306,
"implied_no": 0.6132,
"implied_yes": 0.3868,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1901,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5812
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.3894,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4108
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.5812,
"p_final_yes": 0.4108,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1392,
"alpha_under": 0.1914,
"best_over_odd": 2.78,
"best_under_odd": 1.44,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.74,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.355,
"edge_over": 0.1462,
"edge_under": -0.1462,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.34,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0357,
"ev_under": -0.2541,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1325,
"implied_over": 0.3358,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3309,
"implied_under": 0.6642,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6691,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3519
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0289,
"ev": -0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.6691,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6402
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3519,
"p_final_under": 0.6402,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.36,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.36,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.36,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.5
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.0,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.0,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puerto Nuevo)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.36,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.36,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.5,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 79,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Puerto Nuevo at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Puerto Nuevo as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Puerto Nuevo",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "76 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "79 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Puerto Nuevo).",
"Decision strength: 6.5/10"
],
"reliability_score": 76,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1613,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2318,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.7,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.12"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.12
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3803,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.12
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0242,
"ev": -0.1613,
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Puerto Nuevo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0214,
"market_prob": 0.3894,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1901,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.0294,
"ev": -0.1253,
"implied_prob": 0.6106,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.5812
},
"p_final": 0.4108,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0306,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1383,
"best_odd": 2.36,
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": -0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.3894,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.4108
}
},
"edge": 0.1572,
"ev": 0.36,
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.74,
"edge": 0.021,
"market_prob": 0.3309,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1392,
"best_odd": 2.74,
"edge": 0.021,
"ev": -0.0357,
"implied_prob": 0.3309,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3519
},
"p_final": 0.3519,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0357,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"best_odd": 1.355,
"edge": -0.0289,
"ev": -0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.6691,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6402
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1462,
"ev": 0.34,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1500120,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.36,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3237,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3803
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.34,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.34,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Deportivo Paraguayo",
"home": "Puerto Nuevo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.19584,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.36,
"implied_prob": 0.3868,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.544,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1613,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.1%",
"consensus_odds": 2.02,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4394,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3803,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49504950495049505,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2318,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-23.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1500120,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T17:59:54.968281+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera C — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 48 |
| 2 | Lugano | 30 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 46 |
| 4 | Estrella del Sur | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Mercedes | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 43 |
| 6 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | Centro Español | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 41 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 31 |
| 12 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 5 | 14 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 |
| 14 | Argentino de Rosario | 30 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 24 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 30 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 48 |
| 2 | Centro Español | 29 | 35 | 27 | +8 | 41 |
| 3 | Juventud Unida | 30 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 42 |
| 4 | Lugano | 30 | 33 | 25 | +8 | 46 |
| 5 | Sacachispas | 30 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 46 |
| 6 | Estrella del Sur | 30 | 31 | 29 | +2 | 44 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 30 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 43 |
| 8 | Puerto Nuevo | 30 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | Argentino de Rosario | 30 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 24 |
| 10 | Leandro N. Alem | 29 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 28 |
| 11 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 29 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 36 |
| 12 | Victoriano Arenas | 30 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 41 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 30 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 31 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 29 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 29 |
