Sep 20, 2026 - 18:00
0
1.27
0
1.33
xG Accuracy: 49%
Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (0 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Talleres de Remedios de Escalada Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.57
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Villa San Carlos 0–0 Talleres de Remedios de Escalada
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8cacf5a4f39998d3757418d9fb8b72d4e938ed374c046e9543bb107c1feadeaa",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"away_win_prob": 0.3659,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Talleres de Remedios de Escalada and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0587,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4247,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 33.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.13
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.13,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.35,
"market_odds": 2.13,
"model_odds": 2.73,
"overround": 10.5,
"prob_edge": -10.3,
"value_pct": -22.0,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 21,
"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 35,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 17,
"home_played": 35,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.33,
"home_expected": 1.27,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Villa San Carlos or Draw",
"prob": 63.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Villa San Carlos or Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"prob": 66.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Villa San Carlos or Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.6,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 33.8,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.7,
"implied_prob": 28.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Villa San Carlos Win",
"model_prob": 33.8,
"odds": 3.57
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 42.47,
"draw": 32.19,
"home": 25.34
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:59:39",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-20 17:30:40",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Villa San Carlos",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.34,
"gap_pp": 8.42,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 33.75
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.19,
"gap_pp": -2.54,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.65
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.47,
"gap_pp": -5.87,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.62,
"gap_pp": 15.58,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 67.38,
"gap_pp": -15.58,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.57,
"early": 3.57,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.34,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.34,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.81,
"early": 2.81,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.19,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.19,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.13,
"early": 2.13,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.47,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.83,
"early": 2.83,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.62,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.62,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.37,
"early": 1.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 67.38,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 67.38,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.6,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -2.9,
"ev": -0.1875,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.27,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1436,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0194,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4102,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1975,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.5898,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5632
},
"p_final": 0.4295,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.199,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.055,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1436,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4295
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.2,
"text": "-27.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3625,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10476.25,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0205,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3358,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3563
},
"p_final": 0.3563,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2966,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0414,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1351,
"implied_prob": 0.6642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6359
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3641,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.4,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.5,
"text": "-27.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3641,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10327.69,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1467,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -14.7,
"text": "-14.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4247,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0167,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.7,
"text": "-1.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"sort_key": 1795.825,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"alert_team": "Villa San Carlos",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.4,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.43,
"hero_label": "Villa San Carlos",
"market_prob_pct": 42.5,
"market_team": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Talleres de Remedios de Escalada)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Talleres de Remedios de Escalada)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3641,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3641,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Talleres de Remedios de Escalada at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Talleres de Remedios de Escalada as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Talleres de Remedios de Escalada).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1467,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4247,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.375,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 3.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.43,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.43,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.33,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.27,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.27 \u00b7 Away xG 1.33 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"steam_team": "Villa San Carlos",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Talleres de Remedios de Escalada).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Talleres de Remedios de Escalada)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Talleres de Remedios de Escalada)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3641,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3641,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Talleres de Remedios de Escalada at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Talleres de Remedios de Escalada as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Talleres de Remedios de Escalada).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1467,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4247,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Villa San Carlos 1.27 xG vs Talleres de Remedios de Escalada 1.33 \u2192 Talleres de Remedios de Escalada 36.6%",
"Market: Talleres de Remedios de Escalada ~42.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Villa San Carlos odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Talleres de Remedios de Escalada with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 8.43,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Villa San Carlos",
"market_prob": 25.34,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.55,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.88,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"market_prob": 42.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.27,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 33.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.27,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 66.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.85,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.65,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.85,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.35,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 8.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Villa San Carlos",
"market_prob_pct": 25.34,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Villa San Carlos"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Villa San Carlos\u0027s win probability at 33.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 25.3%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 8.43,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 42.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -5.9,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -5.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 86,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 70,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Villa San Carlos 1.27 xG vs Talleres de Remedios de Escalada 1.33 \u2192 Talleres de Remedios de Escalada 36.6%",
"Market: Talleres de Remedios de Escalada ~42.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Villa San Carlos odds \u2191 +8.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Talleres de Remedios de Escalada with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 8.43,
"hero_label": "Villa San Carlos",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Villa San Carlos odds lengthened \u2191 +8.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Villa San Carlos.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Villa San Carlos.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Villa San Carlos.",
"Confirmation remains limited (3/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Villa San Carlos."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Villa San Carlos.",
"Recent line movement on Villa San Carlos (\u2191 +8.3%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.43,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Villa San Carlos",
"largest_gap_pp": 8.4,
"lead": "The model rates Villa San Carlos considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.4,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 8.43,
"edge_pp": 8.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Villa San Carlos",
"market_prob_pct": 25.34,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.55,
"edge_pp": -2.55,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.19,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.88,
"edge_pp": -5.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"market_prob_pct": 42.47,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Villa San Carlos.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Talleres de Remedios de Escalada (42.5%).",
"Villa San Carlos odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +8.3%, 3/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Talleres de Remedios de Escalada \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.01,
"closing_odds": 3.57,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.01,
"entry_odds": 3.57,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 8.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Villa San Carlos (8.3%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.90",
"3.73",
"3.57"
],
"display": "4.00 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 153h 56m",
"pick_team": "Villa San Carlos",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
3.57,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,16.4 28.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.57"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Villa San Carlos",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Villa San Carlos",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/8",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Villa San Carlos",
"steam_score": 36,
"steam_team_name": "Villa San Carlos",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "talleres-remedios",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"away_team_id": 1927,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1927.webp",
"away_team_name": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"away_team_public_id": "5aewIeMYCGHP2k",
"away_team_slug": "talleres-remedios",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499649,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Villa San Carlos",
"home_team_id": 8380,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8380.webp",
"home_team_name": "Villa San Carlos",
"home_team_public_id": "5LkVs7HgbTrlih",
"home_team_slug": "villa-san-carlos",
"ht.home_team_slug": "villa-san-carlos",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_public_id": "2N6CkighLmd0uk",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-20 18:00:00",
"public_id": "3UenkFzsUcjqjt",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Genacio Salice Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4104,
"best_odd": 2.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1467,
"implied_prob": 0.4247,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4247,
"draw": 0.3219,
"home": 0.2534
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.4006
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4328,
"best_odd": 2.81,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.011,
"ev": -0.1264,
"implied_prob": 0.3219,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4247,
"draw": 0.3219,
"home": 0.2534
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.3109
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2621,
"best_odd": 3.57,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0221,
"ev": -0.0167,
"implied_prob": 0.2534,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4247,
"draw": 0.3219,
"home": 0.2534
},
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2754
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.13,
"edge": -0.1035,
"ev": -0.2205,
"implied_prob": 0.4695,
"model_prob": 0.366
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.81,
"edge": -0.0594,
"ev": -0.1669,
"implied_prob": 0.3559,
"model_prob": 0.2965
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.57,
"edge": 0.0574,
"ev": 0.205,
"implied_prob": 0.2801,
"model_prob": 0.3375
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1975,
"alpha_yes": 0.1436,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1385,
"edge_yes": 0.1385,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1383,
"ev_yes": 0.3625,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.055,
"implied_no": 0.5935,
"implied_yes": 0.4065,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1975,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.5898,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5632
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1436,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4295
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.5632,
"p_final_yes": 0.4295,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1405,
"alpha_under": 0.1932,
"best_over_odd": 2.83,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.69,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1427,
"edge_under": -0.1427,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3641,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0414,
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1351,
"implied_over": 0.3393,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3358,
"implied_under": 0.6607,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6642,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3563
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1351,
"implied_prob": 0.6642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6359
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3563,
"p_final_under": 0.6359,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3641,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3641,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3641,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 5.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.8
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.4,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.4,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Talleres de Remedios de Escalada)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3641,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3641,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.8,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 86,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Talleres de Remedios de Escalada at 36.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 42.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Talleres de Remedios de Escalada as the value side (36.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 5.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 5.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Talleres de Remedios de Escalada).",
"Decision strength: 5.8/10"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1467,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4247,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.06 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.06
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0241,
"ev": -0.1467,
"implied_prob": 0.4247,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1436,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0194,
"market_prob": 0.4102,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1975,
"best_odd": 1.53,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1383,
"implied_prob": 0.5898,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5632
},
"p_final": 0.4295,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.055,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1436,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4102,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4295
}
},
"edge": 0.1385,
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0205,
"market_prob": 0.3358,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1405,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0205,
"ev": -0.0414,
"implied_prob": 0.3358,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3563
},
"p_final": 0.3563,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0414,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1932,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0282,
"ev": -0.1351,
"implied_prob": 0.6642,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6359
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1427,
"ev": 0.3641,
"implied_prob": 0.3393,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499649,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3641,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3641,
"implied_prob": 0.3393,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3641,
"implied_prob": 0.3393,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
"home": "Villa San Carlos"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.197563,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3625,
"implied_prob": 0.4065,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1467,
"consensus_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"consensus_odds": 2.13,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4247,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"raw_edge_display": "-5.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -5.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4694835680751174,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2204,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-22.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499649,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-20T17:59:40.984467+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Villa San Carlos & Talleres de Remedios de Escalada!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Primera B Metropolitana — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 37 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 69 |
| 3 | Talleres de Remedios de Escalada | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 67 |
| 4 | Villa Dálmine | 36 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 63 |
| 5 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 63 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 59 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 57 |
| 9 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 53 |
| 10 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 48 |
| 11 | San Martín de Burzaco | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 |
| 12 | Dock Sud | 36 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 44 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 44 |
| 14 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 44 |
| 15 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 43 |
| 16 | Argentino de Quilmes | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 41 |
| 17 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 19 | Flandria | 36 | 10 | 8 | 18 | 38 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 38 |
| 21 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 31 |
| 22 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 1 | 12 | 24 | 15 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excursionistas | 37 | 59 | 29 | +30 | 74 |
| 2 | Arsenal de Sarandí | 37 | 50 | 24 | +26 | 69 |
| 3 | Deportivo Laferrere | 36 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 48 |
| 4 | Deportivo Camioneros | 37 | 42 | 27 | +15 | 63 |
| 5 | Sportivo Italiano | 36 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 59 |
| 6 | Talleres de Remedios de Escalada | 37 | 40 | 21 | +19 | 67 |
| 7 | Real Pilar | 37 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 58 |
| 8 | Deportivo Armenio | 37 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 57 |
| 9 | Villa Dálmine | 36 | 38 | 21 | +17 | 63 |
| 10 | Comunicaciones | 36 | 38 | 33 | +5 | 53 |
| 11 | Dock Sud | 36 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 44 |
| 12 | San Martín de Burzaco | 37 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 47 |
| 13 | Villa San Carlos | 37 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 44 |
| 14 | Deportivo Merlo | 37 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 43 |
| 15 | Argentino de Merlo | 37 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 44 |
| 16 | Defensores Unidos | 37 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 40 |
| 17 | Flandria | 36 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 38 |
| 18 | Liniers | 37 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 40 |
| 19 | Argentino de Quilmes | 36 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 41 |
| 20 | Brown de Adrogué | 37 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 38 |
| 21 | Ituzaingó | 37 | 23 | 59 | -36 | 15 |
| 22 | UAI Urquiza | 36 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 31 |
