Talleres de Remedios de Escalada vs Argentino de Merlo Statistics & Analysis

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  "decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
      "away_win_prob": 0.3564,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "bayes_applied": 0,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.455,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2965,
      "draw_prob_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.81,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.88,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.29,
      "home_win_prob": 0.347,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": null,
      "over_25_prob": 0.482,
      "prediction_confidence": "very_low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.518
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Talleres de Remedios de Escalada or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.31,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Argentino de Merlo",
      "confidence": null,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
        "edge": 0.192,
        "edge_gap": 0.0087,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.1639,
        "model_prob": 0.3559,
        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 35.6,
          "draw": 29.7,
          "home": 34.7
        },
        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 5.6
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": null,
      "risk_key": null,
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 5.6,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Argentino de Merlo Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 6.1,
        "market_odds": 5.6,
        "model_odds": 2.81,
        "overround": 8.9,
        "prob_edge": 17.7,
        "value_pct": 99.3,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 9,
        "away_failed_to_score": 13,
        "away_played": 28,
        "away_score_rate": 73.0,
        "home_clean_sheet": 17,
        "home_failed_to_score": 9,
        "home_played": 28,
        "home_score_rate": 72.5,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.5,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.31,
        "home_expected": 1.29,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 12.6
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 0,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-0",
            "prob": 9.6
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 8.2
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
            "prob": 8.1
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada or Draw",
            "prob": 64.3
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada or Argentino de Merlo",
            "prob": 70.3
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Argentino de Merlo",
            "prob": 65.2
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada or Argentino de Merlo",
        "pick_prob": 70.3
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 35.6,
        "draw_pct": 29.6,
        "home_pct": 34.7,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Argentino de Merlo"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": "-3.5",
        "avg_total": 2.6,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.0,
        "confidence": "low",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "pick": "Under 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 51.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 2.6,
        "under_prob": 51.8
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 99.4,
        "implied_prob": 17.9,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Argentino de Merlo Win",
        "model_prob": 35.6,
        "odds": 5.6
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Argentino de Merlo",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 16.39,
        "draw": 28.96,
        "home": 54.65
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE5",
      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-08 17:59:15",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "early_fetched_at": "2026-08-08 17:34:38",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 54.65,
          "gap_pp": -19.92,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 34.73
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 28.96,
          "gap_pp": 0.72,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 29.68
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 16.39,
          "gap_pp": 19.2,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 35.59
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 36.14,
          "gap_pp": 12.06,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 48.2
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 63.86,
          "gap_pp": -12.06,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 51.8
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.68,
          "early": 1.68,
          "implied_closing_pct": 54.65,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 54.65,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 3.17,
          "early": 3.17,
          "implied_closing_pct": 28.96,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 28.96,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 5.6,
          "early": 5.6,
          "implied_closing_pct": 16.39,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 16.39,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.58,
          "early": 2.58,
          "implied_closing_pct": 36.14,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 36.14,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.46,
          "early": 1.46,
          "implied_closing_pct": 63.86,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 63.86,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": true,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 19.2,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "lean_card": {
        "diff_pp": -1.7,
        "ev": -0.118,
        "has_edge": false,
        "label": "1-1",
        "market_odds": 7.0,
        "market_prob": 0.1429,
        "market_prob_pct": 14.3,
        "model_prob": 0.126,
        "model_prob_pct": 12.6,
        "n_bookmakers": 7,
        "status_key": "no_value"
      },
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 12.6
      },
      "top5": [
        {
          "label": "1-1",
          "prob": 12.6
        },
        {
          "label": "0-1",
          "prob": 9.7
        },
        {
          "label": "1-0",
          "prob": 9.6
        },
        {
          "label": "1-2",
          "prob": 8.2
        },
        {
          "label": "2-1",
          "prob": 8.1
        }
      ]
    },
    "home_xg": 1.29,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "authority_action": "no_bet",
        "authority_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp.",
        "consensus_odds": 5.6,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "disagreement_label": "Strong",
        "disagreement_level": "strong",
        "ev": 0.0712,
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 7.1,
          "text": "+7.1%"
        },
        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.1639,
        "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
        "max_ev": 0.0712,
        "max_ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 7.1,
          "text": "+7.1%"
        },
        "model_prob": 0.3559,
        "raw_edge_display": "+19.2 percentage points",
        "raw_edge_pp": 19.2,
        "raw_signal_ev": 0.993,
        "raw_signal_ev_display": "+99.3%",
        "show_primary_label": false,
        "side_label": "Argentino de Merlo",
        "sort_key": 10214.08,
        "tier": "best"
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "decision_layer": {
          "available": false
        },
        "ev_available": false,
        "ev_no": null,
        "ev_no_display": null,
        "ev_yes": null,
        "ev_yes_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": null,
        "n_bookmakers": 0,
        "no_prob": 45.5,
        "sort_key": 4050.0,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "yes",
        "yes_prob": 54.5
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "decision_layer": {
          "available": false
        },
        "ev_available": false,
        "ev_over": null,
        "ev_over_display": null,
        "ev_under": null,
        "ev_under_display": null,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": null,
        "n_bookmakers": 0,
        "over_prob": 48.2,
        "sort_key": 2050.0,
        "tier": "pass",
        "under_prob": 51.8,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 817.8,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 12.6
      }
    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "3/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "3/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -6.7%",
        "alert_team": "Argentino de Merlo",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 19.9,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": -19.95,
        "hero_label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
        "market_prob_pct": 16.4,
        "market_team": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
        "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
        "model_team": "Argentino de Merlo",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "!",
        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 26,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "decision_chain": {
        "academy_links": [
          {
            "key": "market_disagree",
            "read_min": 5,
            "title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
            "url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "steam",
            "read_min": 4,
            "title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
          },
          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
            "read_min": 3,
            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
          }
        ],
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 19.9,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": false,
          "pricing_key": "low",
          "probability_gap_pp": 19.9,
          "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp."
        },
        "authority": {
          "action": "no_bet",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 19.9,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": false,
            "pricing_key": "low",
            "probability_gap_pp": 19.9,
            "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp."
          },
          "alignment_key": "agree",
          "best_consensus_ev": 0.0712,
          "best_outlier_ev": 0.9932,
          "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
          "decision_strength": 3.4,
          "decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
          "decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
          "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
          "execution_confidence": 43,
          "extreme_disagreement": false,
          "final_verdict_audit": {
            "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
            "action_label": "Action",
            "decision": "No Primary Bet",
            "is_primary": false,
            "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Argentino de Merlo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.4%.",
            "why": [
              {
                "text": "Decision Model identifies Argentino de Merlo as the value side (35.6%)",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                "tone": "ok"
              },
              {
                "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                "tone": "bad"
              },
              {
                "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                "tone": "bad"
              }
            ],
            "why_label": "Decision Summary"
          },
          "gap_pp": 19.2,
          "gates_failed": [
            "Reliability below 65"
          ],
          "has_top_pick": true,
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "hero_mode": "default",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
          "model_conflict_detail": null,
          "model_lean": "Argentino de Merlo",
          "no_primary_reasons": {
            "all_triggered": [
              "market_quality",
              "calibration_risk"
            ],
            "calibration_mode": "soft",
            "codes": [
              "market_quality",
              "calibration_risk"
            ],
            "label": "Reason",
            "other_factors": [
              {
                "code": "calibration_risk",
                "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
                "name": "Calibration Risk",
                "short": "Calibration Risk",
                "tone": "danger"
              }
            ],
            "other_label": "Other factors",
            "primary": {
              "code": "market_quality",
              "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
              "name": "Market Quality Risk",
              "short": "Market Quality Risk",
              "tone": "warn"
            },
            "secondary": {
              "code": "calibration_risk",
              "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
              "name": "Calibration Risk",
              "short": "Calibration Risk",
              "tone": "danger"
            },
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "outlier_detected": true,
          "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Argentino de Merlo \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +99% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1499572 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
          "primary_allowed": false,
          "primary_block_explain": {
            "entries": [
              {
                "key": "positive_ev",
                "label": "Consensus EV +7.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                "ok": true
              },
              {
                "key": "gate",
                "label": "Reliability below 65",
                "ok": false
              }
            ],
            "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
            "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
            "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
            "title": "Why not Primary?"
          },
          "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
          "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
          "primary_gates": {
            "items": [
              {
                "key": "extreme_gap",
                "label": "Extreme gap",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "no"
              },
              {
                "key": "xg_calibration",
                "label": "xG calibration",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "warning"
              },
              {
                "key": "reliability",
                "label": "Rel",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "54 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "execution",
                "label": "Exec",
                "ok": false,
                "value": "43 (\u226565)"
              },
              {
                "key": "alignment",
                "label": "Align",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "agree"
              },
              {
                "key": "consensus_ev",
                "label": "ConsEV",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "+7.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
              },
              {
                "key": "top_pick",
                "label": "Pick",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              },
              {
                "key": "validation",
                "label": "Validation",
                "ok": true,
                "value": "true"
              }
            ],
            "passed": 6,
            "total": 8
          },
          "primary_type": null,
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp.",
            "Decision strength: 3.4/10",
            "Reliability below 65",
            "Outlier price +99% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
          ],
          "reliability_score": 54,
          "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV",
            "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
          ],
          "subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp.",
          "thresholds": {
            "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
            "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
            "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
            "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
            "min_execution": 65,
            "min_reliability": 65,
            "min_strength": 7.0,
            "source": "db",
            "user_id": 2
          },
          "thresholds_source": "db",
          "thresholds_user_id": 2,
          "tier": "observe",
          "validation_ok": true,
          "value_context": {
            "consensus_ev": 0.0712,
            "consensus_ev_display": "+7.1%",
            "consensus_odds": 5.6,
            "disagreement_label": "Strong",
            "disagreement_level": "strong",
            "implied_prob": 0.1639,
            "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "raw_edge_display": "+19.2 percentage points",
            "raw_edge_pp": 19.2,
            "raw_implied_prob": 0.17857142857142858,
            "raw_signal_ev": 0.993,
            "raw_signal_ev_display": "+99.3%"
          },
          "version": "v2.5",
          "xg_calibration": {
            "block_value_alert": true,
            "calibration_status": "warning",
            "deviation_pct": -3.0,
            "reasons": [
              "Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
            ],
            "recommended_action": "monitor",
            "strength_delta": -2.0,
            "uplift_away": null,
            "uplift_home": null,
            "xg_separation": {
              "band": "flat",
              "block_value_alert": true,
              "separation_score": -20,
              "strength_delta": -2.0,
              "xg_gap": 0.02
            }
          }
        },
        "bet_status": "no_bet",
        "books_breadth_display": "3/12",
        "breadth_ratio": 0.25,
        "evidence": {
          "score": 68,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u25cb",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "No strong statistical edge",
              "status": "neutral"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
              "status": "pass"
            },
            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "stars": 3,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "forecast_reliability": {
          "breakdown": [
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (20 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 15.0,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 2.5,
            "steam_coherence": 5.0,
            "validation": 14.0
          },
          "score": 54,
          "stars": 2,
          "tier": "moderate",
          "tier_label": "Moderate"
        },
        "lean_gap_pp": 19.95,
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "max_gap_pp": 19.95,
        "model_calibration": {
          "away_xg": 1.31,
          "calibration_status": "ok",
          "deviation_pct": -3.0,
          "elevated": false,
          "home_xg": 1.29,
          "impact_note": "",
          "league_avg_xg": 1.35,
          "peak_xg": 1.31,
          "status_label": "Within typical league range",
          "summary": "Home xG 1.29 \u00b7 Away xG 1.31 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
          "title": "Model Calibration Check"
        },
        "move_is_drift": false,
        "mv_status": "warning",
        "odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
        "steam_conflicts": false,
        "steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
        "steam_team": "Argentino de Merlo",
        "suppress_execution": false,
        "value_split": {
          "execution_confidence": {
            "label": "Betting Confidence",
            "score": 43,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "market_compatibility": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 4,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "model_edge_strength": {
            "label": "Model Signal Strength",
            "score": 35,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
          "model_value": {
            "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
            "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
            "score": 4,
            "tier": "not_reliable",
            "tier_label": "Not reliable"
          },
          "recommendation": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "label": "No Primary Bet"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp.",
          "alignment": {
            "direction_aligned": false,
            "direction_key": "conflict",
            "gap_pp": 19.9,
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
            "model_strong": false,
            "pricing_aligned": false,
            "pricing_key": "low",
            "probability_gap_pp": 19.9,
            "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "no_bet",
            "alignment": {
              "direction_aligned": false,
              "direction_key": "conflict",
              "gap_pp": 19.9,
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
              "model_strong": false,
              "pricing_aligned": false,
              "pricing_key": "low",
              "probability_gap_pp": 19.9,
              "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.0712,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.9932,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
            "decision_strength": 3.4,
            "decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
            "decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
            "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
            "execution_confidence": 43,
            "extreme_disagreement": false,
            "final_verdict_audit": {
              "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
              "action_label": "Action",
              "decision": "No Primary Bet",
              "is_primary": false,
              "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Argentino de Merlo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.4%.",
              "why": [
                {
                  "text": "Decision Model identifies Argentino de Merlo as the value side (35.6%)",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
                  "tone": "ok"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
                  "tone": "bad"
                },
                {
                  "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
                  "tone": "bad"
                }
              ],
              "why_label": "Decision Summary"
            },
            "gap_pp": 19.2,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Reliability below 65"
            ],
            "has_top_pick": true,
            "headline": "No Primary Bet",
            "hero_mode": "default",
            "icon": "\u25cb",
            "label": "No Primary Bet",
            "market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
            "model_conflict_detail": null,
            "model_lean": "Argentino de Merlo",
            "no_primary_reasons": {
              "all_triggered": [
                "market_quality",
                "calibration_risk"
              ],
              "calibration_mode": "soft",
              "codes": [
                "market_quality",
                "calibration_risk"
              ],
              "label": "Reason",
              "other_factors": [
                {
                  "code": "calibration_risk",
                  "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
                  "name": "Calibration Risk",
                  "short": "Calibration Risk",
                  "tone": "danger"
                }
              ],
              "other_label": "Other factors",
              "primary": {
                "code": "market_quality",
                "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
                "name": "Market Quality Risk",
                "short": "Market Quality Risk",
                "tone": "warn"
              },
              "secondary": {
                "code": "calibration_risk",
                "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
                "name": "Calibration Risk",
                "short": "Calibration Risk",
                "tone": "danger"
              },
              "version": "v1"
            },
            "outlier_detected": true,
            "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Argentino de Merlo \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +99% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1499572 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "primary_block_explain": {
              "entries": [
                {
                  "key": "positive_ev",
                  "label": "Consensus EV +7.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
                  "ok": true
                },
                {
                  "key": "gate",
                  "label": "Reliability below 65",
                  "ok": false
                }
              ],
              "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
              "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
              "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
              "title": "Why not Primary?"
            },
            "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
            "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
            "primary_gates": {
              "items": [
                {
                  "key": "extreme_gap",
                  "label": "Extreme gap",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "no"
                },
                {
                  "key": "xg_calibration",
                  "label": "xG calibration",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "warning"
                },
                {
                  "key": "reliability",
                  "label": "Rel",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "54 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "execution",
                  "label": "Exec",
                  "ok": false,
                  "value": "43 (\u226565)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "alignment",
                  "label": "Align",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "agree"
                },
                {
                  "key": "consensus_ev",
                  "label": "ConsEV",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "+7.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
                },
                {
                  "key": "top_pick",
                  "label": "Pick",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                },
                {
                  "key": "validation",
                  "label": "Validation",
                  "ok": true,
                  "value": "true"
                }
              ],
              "passed": 6,
              "total": 8
            },
            "primary_type": null,
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp.",
              "Decision strength: 3.4/10",
              "Reliability below 65",
              "Outlier price +99% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
            ],
            "reliability_score": 54,
            "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV",
              "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
            ],
            "subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp.",
            "thresholds": {
              "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
              "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
              "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
              "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
              "min_execution": 65,
              "min_reliability": 65,
              "min_strength": 7.0,
              "source": "db",
              "user_id": 2
            },
            "thresholds_source": "db",
            "thresholds_user_id": 2,
            "tier": "observe",
            "validation_ok": true,
            "value_context": {
              "consensus_ev": 0.0712,
              "consensus_ev_display": "+7.1%",
              "consensus_odds": 5.6,
              "disagreement_label": "Strong",
              "disagreement_level": "strong",
              "implied_prob": 0.1639,
              "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
              "model_prob": 0.3559,
              "raw_edge_display": "+19.2 percentage points",
              "raw_edge_pp": 19.2,
              "raw_implied_prob": 0.17857142857142858,
              "raw_signal_ev": 0.993,
              "raw_signal_ev_display": "+99.3%"
            },
            "version": "v2.5",
            "xg_calibration": {
              "block_value_alert": true,
              "calibration_status": "warning",
              "deviation_pct": -3.0,
              "reasons": [
                "Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
              ],
              "recommended_action": "monitor",
              "strength_delta": -2.0,
              "uplift_away": null,
              "uplift_home": null,
              "xg_separation": {
                "band": "flat",
                "block_value_alert": true,
                "separation_score": -20,
                "strength_delta": -2.0,
                "xg_gap": 0.02
              }
            }
          },
          "headline": "No Primary Bet",
          "icon": "\u25cb",
          "label": "No Primary Bet",
          "subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp.",
          "tier": "observe"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Talleres de Remedios de Escalada 1.29 xG vs Argentino de Merlo 1.31 \u2192 Argentino de Merlo 35.6%",
            "Market: Talleres de Remedios de Escalada ~16.4% implied",
            "Market Steam: Argentino de Merlo \u2193 -6.7%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model leans Argentino de Merlo, but market pricing diverges by 20 pp.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -19.95,
          "fair_prob": 34.7,
          "label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
          "market_prob": 54.65,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 0.69,
          "fair_prob": 29.65,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 28.96,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 19.25,
          "fair_prob": 35.64,
          "label": "Argentino de Merlo",
          "market_prob": 16.39,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 54.5,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 45.5,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": -19.95,
        "fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
        "market_prob_pct": 54.65,
        "status": "strong_market_ahead",
        "steam_team_name": "Argentino de Merlo"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE5",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Talleres de Remedios de Escalada\u0027s win probability at 54.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 19.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
          "max_gap_pp": 19.95,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Argentino de Merlo",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_direction": {
            "label": "Supports model direction",
            "positive": true
          },
          "market_prob_pct": 16.4,
          "model_prob_gap_display": "+19.2 percentage points",
          "model_prob_gap_pp": 19.2,
          "model_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "low",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "pricing_convergence": {
            "gap_display": "+19.2 percentage points",
            "gap_pp": 19.2,
            "label": "Low convergence",
            "label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
          },
          "reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_score": 54,
          "reliability_tier": "limited",
          "summary": "Argentino de Merlo \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+19.2 pp).",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Betting Confidence",
              "score": 43,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "market_compatibility": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 4,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "model_edge_strength": {
              "label": "Model Signal Strength",
              "score": 35,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
              "note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
              "score": 4,
              "tier": "not_reliable",
              "tier_label": "Not reliable"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "no_bet",
              "label": "No Primary Bet"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Talleres de Remedios de Escalada 1.29 xG vs Argentino de Merlo 1.31 \u2192 Argentino de Merlo 35.6%",
              "Market: Talleres de Remedios de Escalada ~16.4% implied",
              "Market Steam: Argentino de Merlo \u2193 -6.7%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model leans Argentino de Merlo, but market pricing diverges by 20 pp.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": -19.95,
        "hero_label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Argentino de Merlo odds shortened \u2193 -6.7%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
            "Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Argentino de Merlo, with odds shortening by 6.7%. Confirmation remains limited (3/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Talleres de Remedios de Escalada than the current fair estimate.",
          "note": "",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market is materially more optimistic about Talleres de Remedios de Escalada than the current fair estimate.",
            "However, recent buying interest has been on Argentino de Merlo, with odds shortening by 6.7%. Confirmation remains limited (3/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market favors Talleres de Remedios de Escalada more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
            "At the same time, Argentino de Merlo has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.7%.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (3/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 19.95,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
          "max_prob_pct": 35.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "strong",
          "largest_gap_label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
          "largest_gap_pp": -19.9,
          "lead": "The closing market prices Talleres de Remedios de Escalada higher than the statistical model.",
          "level": "strong",
          "max_gap_pp": 19.9,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": -19.95,
            "edge_pp": -19.95,
            "fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
            "market_prob_pct": 54.65,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 0.69,
            "edge_pp": 0.69,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 28.96,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 19.25,
            "edge_pp": 19.25,
            "fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Argentino de Merlo",
            "market_prob_pct": 16.39,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "model_edge",
            "signal_label": "Model Edge"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_market_ahead",
        "status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Talleres de Remedios de Escalada (16.4%).",
          "Argentino de Merlo has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -6.7%, 3/12).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Argentino de Merlo, Market \u2192 Talleres de Remedios de Escalada, Recent sharp money \u2192 Argentino de Merlo.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 59.52,
        "closing_odds": 1.68,
        "closing_reason": "",
        "closing_status": "recorded",
        "closing_status_label": "Recorded",
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_reason": "",
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 59.52,
        "entry_odds": 1.68,
        "match_phase": "upcoming",
        "match_phase_detail": "",
        "match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
        "match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE5",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 3,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 7,
            "bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -9.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -9.1
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 4,
            "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -7.6%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -7.6
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
            "odds_delta_pct": -6.7
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "3/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.2,
        "is_drift": false,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
        "move_pct_abs": 6.7,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 7m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on Argentino de Merlo (swing 6.21 \u2192 3.65 \u2192 4.20) \u2014 net 6.7% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": -6.7,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "5.60",
            "4.90",
            "4.20"
          ],
          "display": "6.21 \u2192 3.65 \u2192 4.20",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 36h 7m",
          "pick_team": "Argentino de Merlo",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "6.21"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.65"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.20"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            4.5,
            5.6,
            4.2
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,14.1 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "volatile",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.50"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "4.20"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "5.60"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.20"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 4.5,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Argentino de Merlo",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 4.2,
          "is_drift": false,
          "label": "Sharp signal",
          "move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
          "open_odds": 4.5,
          "summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
          "team": "Argentino de Merlo",
          "tone": "with"
        },
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 26,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "3/12",
        "current_odds": 4.2,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -6.7%",
        "open_odds": 4.5,
        "pick_team": "Argentino de Merlo",
        "steam_score": 26,
        "steam_team_name": "Argentino de Merlo",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 19.9,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Argentino de Merlo",
      "away_team_id": 2430,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2430.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Argentino de Merlo",
      "away_team_slug": "argentino-de-merlo",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_display_name": "Argentina",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_id": 6,
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1499572,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_display_name": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
      "home_team_id": 1927,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1927.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Talleres de Remedios de Escalada",
      "home_team_slug": "talleres-remedios",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_country_display": "Argentina",
      "league_display_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
      "league_id": 131,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-08-08 18:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
      "venue_name": "Estadio de Talleres de Remedios de Escalada"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.1424,
            "best_odd": 5.6,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0273,
            "ev": 0.0712,
            "implied_prob": 0.1639,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.1639,
              "draw": 0.2896,
              "home": 0.5465
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3559,
            "p_final": 0.1913
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.2968,
            "best_odd": 3.17,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0021,
            "ev": -0.0752,
            "implied_prob": 0.2896,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.1639,
              "draw": 0.2896,
              "home": 0.5465
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2968,
            "p_final": 0.2917
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4207,
            "best_odd": 1.68,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0838,
            "ev": -0.2227,
            "implied_prob": 0.5465,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.1639,
              "draw": 0.2896,
              "home": 0.5465
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3473,
            "p_final": 0.4627
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 5.6,
            "edge": 0.1774,
            "ev": 0.9932,
            "implied_prob": 0.1786,
            "model_prob": 0.3559
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.17,
            "edge": -0.0187,
            "ev": -0.0592,
            "implied_prob": 0.3155,
            "model_prob": 0.2968
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 1.68,
            "edge": -0.248,
            "ev": -0.4166,
            "implied_prob": 0.5952,
            "model_prob": 0.3473
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
          "ev_available": false,
          "market_first": {
            "available": false
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "market_first": {
            "available": false
          },
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "avoid",
        "code": "no_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "stake_mult": 0.0,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "no_bet",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.5.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.0712,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.9932,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0712,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 3.4,
        "score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
        "score_v2_pre_penalty": 5.4,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "score": 3.4,
        "score_pre_penalty": 5.4
      },
      "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "B",
        "stake_factor": 0.5
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "no_bet",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "no_bet",
        "alignment": {
          "direction_aligned": false,
          "direction_key": "conflict",
          "gap_pp": 19.9,
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
          "model_strong": false,
          "pricing_aligned": false,
          "pricing_key": "low",
          "probability_gap_pp": 19.9,
          "summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.0712,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.9932,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
        "decision_strength": 3.4,
        "decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
        "decision_strength_v2": 5.4,
        "decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
        "execution_confidence": 43,
        "extreme_disagreement": false,
        "final_verdict_audit": {
          "action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
          "action_label": "Action",
          "decision": "No Primary Bet",
          "is_primary": false,
          "snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Argentino de Merlo at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 16.4%.",
          "why": [
            {
              "text": "Decision Model identifies Argentino de Merlo as the value side (35.6%)",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
              "tone": "ok"
            },
            {
              "text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
              "tone": "bad"
            },
            {
              "text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
              "tone": "bad"
            }
          ],
          "why_label": "Decision Summary"
        },
        "gap_pp": 19.2,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Reliability below 65"
        ],
        "has_top_pick": true,
        "headline": "No Primary Bet",
        "hero_mode": "default",
        "icon": "\u25cb",
        "label": "No Primary Bet",
        "market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
        "model_conflict_detail": null,
        "model_lean": "Argentino de Merlo",
        "no_primary_reasons": {
          "all_triggered": [
            "market_quality",
            "calibration_risk"
          ],
          "calibration_mode": "soft",
          "codes": [
            "market_quality",
            "calibration_risk"
          ],
          "label": "Reason",
          "other_factors": [
            {
              "code": "calibration_risk",
              "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
              "name": "Calibration Risk",
              "short": "Calibration Risk",
              "tone": "danger"
            }
          ],
          "other_label": "Other factors",
          "primary": {
            "code": "market_quality",
            "detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
            "name": "Market Quality Risk",
            "short": "Market Quality Risk",
            "tone": "warn"
          },
          "secondary": {
            "code": "calibration_risk",
            "detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
            "name": "Calibration Risk",
            "short": "Calibration Risk",
            "tone": "danger"
          },
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "outlier_detected": true,
        "outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Argentino de Merlo \u00b7 decimal odds ~5.60 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +99% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1499572 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22485.60 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "primary_block_explain": {
          "entries": [
            {
              "key": "positive_ev",
              "label": "Consensus EV +7.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
              "ok": true
            },
            {
              "key": "gate",
              "label": "Reliability below 65",
              "ok": false
            }
          ],
          "lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
          "primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
          "subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
          "title": "Why not Primary?"
        },
        "primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
        "primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.4/10 (display only)",
        "primary_gates": {
          "items": [
            {
              "key": "extreme_gap",
              "label": "Extreme gap",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "no"
            },
            {
              "key": "xg_calibration",
              "label": "xG calibration",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "warning"
            },
            {
              "key": "reliability",
              "label": "Rel",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "54 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "execution",
              "label": "Exec",
              "ok": false,
              "value": "43 (\u226565)"
            },
            {
              "key": "alignment",
              "label": "Align",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "agree"
            },
            {
              "key": "consensus_ev",
              "label": "ConsEV",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "+7.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
            },
            {
              "key": "top_pick",
              "label": "Pick",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            },
            {
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation",
              "ok": true,
              "value": "true"
            }
          ],
          "passed": 6,
          "total": 8
        },
        "primary_type": null,
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp.",
          "Decision strength: 3.4/10",
          "Reliability below 65",
          "Outlier price +99% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
        ],
        "reliability_score": 54,
        "speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV",
          "Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
        ],
        "subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Argentino de Merlo), but pricing still diverges by 19.9 pp.",
        "thresholds": {
          "extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
          "lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
          "lean_min_strength": 5.0,
          "min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
          "min_execution": 65,
          "min_reliability": 65,
          "min_strength": 7.0,
          "source": "db",
          "user_id": 2
        },
        "thresholds_source": "db",
        "thresholds_user_id": 2,
        "tier": "observe",
        "validation_ok": true,
        "value_context": {
          "consensus_ev": 0.0712,
          "consensus_ev_display": "+7.1%",
          "consensus_odds": 5.6,
          "disagreement_label": "Strong",
          "disagreement_level": "strong",
          "implied_prob": 0.1639,
          "is_extreme_disagreement": false,
          "model_prob": 0.3559,
          "raw_edge_display": "+19.2 percentage points",
          "raw_edge_pp": 19.2,
          "raw_implied_prob": 0.17857142857142858,
          "raw_signal_ev": 0.993,
          "raw_signal_ev_display": "+99.3%"
        },
        "version": "v2.5",
        "xg_calibration": {
          "block_value_alert": true,
          "calibration_status": "warning",
          "deviation_pct": -3.0,
          "reasons": [
            "Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
          ],
          "recommended_action": "monitor",
          "strength_delta": -2.0,
          "uplift_away": null,
          "uplift_home": null,
          "xg_separation": {
            "band": "flat",
            "block_value_alert": true,
            "separation_score": -20,
            "strength_delta": -2.0,
            "xg_gap": 0.02
          }
        }
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-08-08T17:59:17.973100+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}