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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sportivo Italiano Excursionistas ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "3dc817eae58f113d34e728d0efe8a9fb263e8e7af9b4aa78eb3b6825c506203e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.2.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.3107,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3699,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.21,
"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3194,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.457,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3107,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.3107,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.13,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.22,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.22,
"fair_odds_home": 2.7,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.7,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.39,
"home_win_prob": 0.3699,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3699,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Excursionistas",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Excursionistas"
},
"away_xg": 1.21,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0622,
"edge_gap": 0.0509,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.308,
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 31.9,
"draw": 31.0,
"home": 37.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.94
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.94,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sportivo Italiano Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.25,
"market_odds": 2.94,
"model_odds": 2.7,
"overround": 10.4,
"prob_edge": 3.0,
"value_pct": 8.9,
"value_rating": "small_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 9,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 19,
"away_score_rate": 70.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 19,
"home_score_rate": 75.1,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.21,
"home_expected": 1.39,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sportivo Italiano or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sportivo Italiano or Excursionistas",
"prob": 68.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Excursionistas",
"prob": 63.0
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Sportivo Italiano or Excursionistas",
"pick_prob": 68.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 31.1,
"home_pct": 37.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Sportivo Italiano"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 8.9,
"implied_prob": 34.0,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Sportivo Italiano Win",
"model_prob": 37.0,
"odds": 2.94
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Excursionistas",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sportivo Italiano",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.8,
"gap_pp": 6.22,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 37.02
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.79,
"gap_pp": -4.75,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.04
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.41,
"gap_pp": -1.48,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.94
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.14,
"gap_pp": 18.06,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 69.86,
"gap_pp": -18.06,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.94,
"early": 2.94,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.53,
"early": 2.53,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.79,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.71,
"early": 2.71,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.41,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.41,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 3.06,
"early": 3.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.14,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.32,
"early": 1.32,
"implied_closing_pct": 69.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 69.86,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 18.1,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
}
},
"home_xg": 1.39,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4797,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 48.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -29.5,
"text": "-29.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.4797,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10581.73,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2688,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.9,
"text": "-26.9%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2923,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.2,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2923,
"no_prob": 45.7,
"sort_key": 10263.07,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.3
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0199,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.308,
"max_ev": -0.0199,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.0,
"text": "-2.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"side_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
"sort_key": 1795.025,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -7.4%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 6.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.19,
"hero_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
"market_prob_pct": 30.8,
"market_team": "Draw",
"model_prob_pct": 37.0,
"model_team": "Sportivo Italiano",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.19,
"fair_prob": 36.99,
"label": "Sportivo Italiano",
"market_prob": 30.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.72,
"fair_prob": 31.07,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 35.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.47,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Excursionistas",
"market_prob": 33.41,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.14,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.06,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.14,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.94,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.53,
"fair_prob": 54.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.77,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.53,
"fair_prob": 45.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.23,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.99,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sportivo Italiano",
"market_prob_pct": 30.8,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 6.19,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_prob_pct": 30.8,
"model_prob_pct": 37.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean Sportivo Italiano, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Excursionistas remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.19,
"hero_label": "Sportivo Italiano",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds shortened \u2193 -7.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 7.4%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sportivo Italiano.",
"note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 7.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sportivo Italiano.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Draw, with odds shortening by 7.4%.",
"Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 7.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Sportivo Italiano.",
"At the same time, Draw has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 7.4%.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/12) supports the current market view on Draw."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 6.19,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 5.1 pp (at 37.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 5.1,
"max_prob_pct": 37.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 6.19,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.99,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sportivo Italiano",
"market_prob_pct": 30.8,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.72,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 35.79,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Excursionistas",
"market_prob_pct": 33.41,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Draw \u2014 odds shortened by 7.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Draw (30.8%).",
"However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -7.4%, 9/12).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sportivo Italiano, Market \u2192 Draw, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.01,
"closing_odds": 2.94,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.01,
"entry_odds": 2.94,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "9/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (7.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "2.88 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 39h 57m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.50"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,15.3 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop"
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 9/12 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/12",
"current_odds": 2.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -7.4%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 8385,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8385.webp",
"away_team_name": "Excursionistas",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1499472,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_id": 8388,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8388.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sportivo Italiano",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_id": 131,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
"league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 18:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Republica de Italia Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.44,
"best_odd": 2.71,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0065,
"ev": -0.1121,
"implied_prob": 0.3341,
"model_prob": 0.3194,
"p_final": 0.3276
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.418,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0198,
"ev": -0.1447,
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"model_prob": 0.3104,
"p_final": 0.3381
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.408,
"best_odd": 2.94,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.308,
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"p_final": 0.3334
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"edge_no": -0.1353,
"edge_yes": 0.1353,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2688,
"ev_yes": 0.2923,
"implied_no": 0.5923,
"implied_yes": 0.4077,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 3.07,
"best_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1614,
"edge_under": -0.1614,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4797,
"ev_under": -0.2955,
"implied_over": 0.3206,
"implied_under": 0.6794,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4797,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.543,
"draw_prob": 0.3104,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3702,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.18
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": -0.0199,
"implied_prob": 0.308,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3702,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sportivo Italiano"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1353,
"ev": 0.2923,
"implied_prob": 0.4077,
"model_prob": 0.543,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1614,
"ev": 0.4797,
"implied_prob": 0.3206,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1499472,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4797,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3194,
"draw": 0.3104,
"home": 0.3702
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2923,
"implied_prob": 0.4077,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2923,
"implied_prob": 0.4077,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.543,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Excursionistas",
"home": "Sportivo Italiano"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.161851,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4797,
"implied_prob": 0.3206,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1499472,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T20:50:41.126240+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana Predicciones
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