Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Colegiales Colegiales ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Colegiales win · Club Atlético Güemes 0–1 Colegiales
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a6c2e67d3354f186ec37c847d2714a766d32faeef92929c433da8b02d33b127c",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.35,
"away_win_prob": 0.3754,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2961,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.66,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.04,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": 0.3285,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Colegiales",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Colegiales"
},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Colegiales",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0437,
"edge_gap": 0.047,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4194,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 37.6,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 32.9
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.27
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.27,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Colegiales Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.38,
"market_odds": 2.27,
"model_odds": 2.66,
"overround": 5.0,
"prob_edge": -6.5,
"value_pct": -14.7,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 13,
"away_failed_to_score": 12,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 12,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 71.3,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.35,
"home_expected": 1.25,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes or Draw",
"prob": 62.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes or Colegiales",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Colegiales",
"prob": 67.1
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes or Colegiales",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 37.5,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 32.9,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Colegiales"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.5,
"implied_prob": 28.7,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes Win",
"model_prob": 32.9,
"odds": 3.48
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Colegiales",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 41.94,
"draw": 30.71,
"home": 27.36
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 19:59:29",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 19:29:37",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.62,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.36,
"gap_pp": 5.52,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 32.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.71,
"gap_pp": -1.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.56
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 41.94,
"gap_pp": -4.37,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 37.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.41,
"gap_pp": 11.79,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 63.59,
"gap_pp": -11.79,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.48,
"early": 3.46,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.36,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.2,
"implied_early_pct": 27.55,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.1,
"early": 3.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.63,
"implied_early_pct": 30.07,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.27,
"early": 2.25,
"implied_closing_pct": 41.94,
"implied_delta_pp": -0.44,
"implied_early_pct": 42.37,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.62,
"early": 2.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 36.41,
"implied_delta_pp": -1.62,
"implied_early_pct": 38.02,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.5,
"early": 1.54,
"implied_closing_pct": 63.59,
"implied_delta_pp": 1.62,
"implied_early_pct": 61.98,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.8,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -1.4,
"ev": -0.1,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 7.2,
"market_prob": 0.1389,
"market_prob_pct": 13.9,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.4477,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5317
},
"p_final": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1227,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0392,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4664
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -21.3,
"text": "-21.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.4,
"text": "+14.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1445,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10280.05,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0151,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3836,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3987
},
"p_final": 0.3987,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1616,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0391,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1066,
"implied_prob": 0.6164,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5956
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2098,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 21.0,
"text": "+21.0%"
},
"ev_under": -0.1971,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.7,
"text": "-19.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2098,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10188.82,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0898,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0048,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Colegiales",
"sort_key": 5203.84,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"alert_team": "Colegiales",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.5,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.49,
"hero_label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"market_prob_pct": 41.9,
"market_team": "Colegiales",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Colegiales",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2098,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colegiales at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colegiales as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colegiales",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "5/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.6,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 85,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.49,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.49,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.35,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.25,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.25 \u00b7 Away xG 1.35 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"steam_team": "Colegiales",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2098,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colegiales at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colegiales as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colegiales",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes 1.25 xG vs Colegiales 1.35 \u2192 Colegiales 37.5%",
"Market: Colegiales ~41.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Colegiales \u2193 -6.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colegiales with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.49,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"market_prob": 27.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.1,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.4,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Colegiales",
"market_prob": 41.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.92,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.28,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.92,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.72,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.63,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 44.87,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.63,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 55.13,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"market_prob_pct": 27.36,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Colegiales"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes\u0027s win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 27.4%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.49,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Colegiales",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 41.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.4,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.4,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 85,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Colegiales \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 89,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes 1.25 xG vs Colegiales 1.35 \u2192 Colegiales 37.5%",
"Market: Colegiales ~41.9% implied",
"Market Steam: Colegiales \u2193 -6.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colegiales with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.49,
"hero_label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Colegiales odds shortened \u2193 -6.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Colegiales, with odds shortening by 6.4%.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes.",
"note": "Buying interest on Colegiales \u2014 odds shortened by 6.4%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Colegiales, with odds shortening by 6.4%.",
"Buying interest on Colegiales \u2014 odds shortened by 6.4%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes.",
"At the same time, Colegiales has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 6.4%."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.49,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.5,
"lead": "The model rates Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.5,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 5.49,
"edge_pp": 5.49,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"market_prob_pct": 27.36,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.1,
"edge_pp": -1.1,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.71,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -4.4,
"edge_pp": -4.4,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Colegiales",
"market_prob_pct": 41.94,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Colegiales \u2014 odds shortened by 6.4%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Colegiales (41.9%).",
"Colegiales has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -6.4%, 5/9).",
"Colegiales \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 28.74,
"closing_odds": 3.48,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 28.74,
"entry_odds": 3.48,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -2.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 6.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 35m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Colegiales (6.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.35",
"2.28",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.42 \u2192 2.10 \u2192 2.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 109h 35m",
"pick_team": "Colegiales",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.42"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.35,
2.27,
2.25,
2.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,9.6 37.3,12.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.35"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.35,
"page_alert_line": "Strong steam move across 5/9 sportsbooks on Colegiales",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Colegiales",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Colegiales",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/9",
"current_odds": 2.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -6.4%",
"open_odds": 2.35,
"pick_team": "Colegiales",
"steam_score": 42,
"steam_team_name": "Colegiales",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.5,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "colegiales",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Colegiales",
"away_team_id": 8377,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8377.webp",
"away_team_name": "Colegiales",
"away_team_public_id": "0qV7UaS0NtXeOQ",
"away_team_slug": "colegiales",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498853,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"home_team_id": 3969,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3969.webp",
"home_team_name": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes",
"home_team_public_id": "3ZhjV6RPjjTpj5",
"home_team_slug": "club-atletico-guemes",
"ht.home_team_slug": "club-atletico-guemes",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 20:00:00",
"public_id": "3j7eK5bxOOiikf",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Santiago del Estero",
"venue_name": "Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4205,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4194,
"draw": 0.3071,
"home": 0.2736
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.401
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2948,
"best_odd": 3.1,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0034,
"ev": -0.0585,
"implied_prob": 0.3071,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4194,
"draw": 0.3071,
"home": 0.2736
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.3037
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2752,
"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0152,
"ev": 0.0048,
"implied_prob": 0.2736,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4194,
"draw": 0.3071,
"home": 0.2736
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2887
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.0649,
"ev": -0.1473,
"implied_prob": 0.4405,
"model_prob": 0.3757
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0269,
"ev": -0.0835,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.48,
"edge": 0.0413,
"ev": 0.1439,
"implied_prob": 0.2874,
"model_prob": 0.3287
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2114,
"alpha_yes": 0.1922,
"best_no_odd": 1.73,
"best_yes_odd": 2.1,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0963,
"edge_yes": 0.0963,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2128,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.112,
"ev_yes": 0.1445,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0392,
"implied_no": 0.5513,
"implied_yes": 0.4487,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5317
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4664
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5317,
"p_final_yes": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1534,
"alpha_under": 0.211,
"best_over_odd": 2.51,
"best_under_odd": 1.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.41,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.5,
"edge_over": 0.0992,
"edge_under": -0.0992,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2098,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0391,
"ev_under": -0.1971,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1066,
"implied_over": 0.3828,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3836,
"implied_under": 0.6172,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6164,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3987
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1066,
"implied_prob": 0.6164,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5956
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3987,
"p_final_under": 0.5956,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2098,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2098,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2098,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.5,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.5,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2098,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2098,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 89,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colegiales at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 41.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colegiales as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.4,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colegiales",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +21.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +21.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "85 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "89 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+21.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 85,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0184,
"ev": -0.0898,
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Colegiales"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"market_prob": 0.4477,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2114,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.112,
"implied_prob": 0.5523,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5317
},
"p_final": 0.4664,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0392,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1922,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": -0.0392,
"implied_prob": 0.4477,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4664
}
},
"edge": 0.0963,
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0151,
"market_prob": 0.3836,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1534,
"best_odd": 2.41,
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0391,
"implied_prob": 0.3836,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3987
},
"p_final": 0.3987,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0391,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.211,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.1066,
"implied_prob": 0.6164,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.5956
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0992,
"ev": 0.2098,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498853,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2098,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3757,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3287
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2098,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2098,
"implied_prob": 0.3828,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Colegiales",
"home": "Club Atl\u00e9tico G\u00fcemes"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.078753,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1445,
"implied_prob": 0.4487,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0898,
"consensus_ev_display": "-9.0%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4194,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.4 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.4,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1472,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-14.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498853,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T19:59:30.756882+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Club Atlético Güemes & Colegiales!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Primera Nacional — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 32 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 56 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 32 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 53 |
| 5 | Colón de Santa Fe | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 52 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 46 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 32 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 45 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 32 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 37 |
| 12 | San Telmo | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 13 | Racing de Córdoba | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 14 | Atlético Mitre | 32 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 35 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 32 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 33 |
| 16 | All Boys | 32 | 6 | 15 | 11 | 33 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 32 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 29 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 32 | 51 | 32 | +19 | 58 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 32 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 53 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 32 | 42 | 29 | +13 | 56 |
| 4 | Colón de Santa Fe | 32 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 52 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 32 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 61 |
| 6 | Chaco For Ever | 32 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 37 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de Buenos Aires | 32 | 29 | 27 | +2 | 45 |
| 8 | Racing de Córdoba | 32 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 37 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 32 | 29 | 39 | -10 | 35 |
| 10 | San Telmo | 32 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 37 |
| 11 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 32 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 45 |
| 12 | Almirante Brown | 32 | 25 | 21 | +4 | 46 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 32 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 40 |
| 14 | Defensores de Belgrano | 32 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 37 |
| 15 | San Miguel | 32 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 31 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 32 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 32 | 20 | 29 | -9 | 33 |
| 18 | All Boys | 32 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 33 |
