Nueva Chicago vs Agropecuario Statistics & Analysis

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      "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
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      "under_25_prob": 0.518
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    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Combo Double chance : Nueva Chicago or draw and -3.5 goals",
      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Nueva Chicago"
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    "away_xg": 1.38,
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        "confidence": "low",
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        "edge_gap": 0.0747,
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        "market_prob": 0.2389,
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          "away": 39.0,
          "draw": 29.5,
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        "reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
        "selection": null,
        "selection_name": null
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 3.99
        }
      ],
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        "best_odds": 3.99,
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        "market_fair_odds": 4.19,
        "market_odds": 3.99,
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        "overround": 4.9,
        "prob_edge": 13.8,
        "value_pct": 55.3,
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      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 7,
        "away_failed_to_score": 11,
        "away_played": 20,
        "away_score_rate": 74.8,
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        "home_failed_to_score": 9,
        "home_played": 19,
        "home_score_rate": 70.5,
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        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 54.4,
        "source": "xG_dc",
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        "yes_prob": 54.4
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        ],
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      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Nueva Chicago or Draw",
            "prob": 61.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Nueva Chicago or Agropecuario",
            "prob": 70.5
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          {
            "key": "X2",
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            "prob": 68.5
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        "lean_label": "Agropecuario"
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        "edge": 55.6,
        "implied_prob": 25.1,
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        "market": "Agropecuario Win",
        "model_prob": 39.0,
        "odds": 3.99
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    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Agropecuario",
      "closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
        "away": 23.89,
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        "home": 44.34
      },
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-17 20:59:02",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "early_fetched_at": "2026-07-17 20:29:02",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Nueva Chicago",
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      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 44.34,
          "gap_pp": -12.84,
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          "model_pct": 31.49
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          "closing_implied_pct": 31.77,
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          "closing": 3.99,
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        {
          "closing": 1.44,
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          "implied_early_pct": 66.2,
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      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
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      {
        "consensus_odds": 3.99,
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        "ev": 0.0929,
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        "ev_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 9.3,
          "text": "+9.3%"
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        "featured": true,
        "id": "1x2",
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          "raw_pct": 9.3,
          "text": "+9.3%"
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        "side_label": "Agropecuario",
        "sort_key": 10233.61,
        "tier": "best"
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        "top_label": "1-1",
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "4/12",
        "alert_breadth_note": "4/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +7.5%",
        "alert_team": "Nueva Chicago",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 15.1,
        "has_alert": false,
        "hero_edge_pp": 15.08,
        "hero_label": "Agropecuario",
        "market_prob_pct": 23.9,
        "market_team": "Nueva Chicago",
        "model_prob_pct": 39.0,
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        "show": true,
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        "status_key": "caution",
        "status_label": "Use caution",
        "status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
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            "key": "market_disagree",
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            "title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
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            "key": "steam",
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            "url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
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          {
            "key": "clv_pending",
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            "title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
            "url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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        ],
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          "action": "lean",
          "alignment": {
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
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            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Agropecuario)."
          },
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          "decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
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          "gates_failed": [
            "Decision strength below 7"
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          "headline": "Selective Lean",
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          "label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
          "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
          "model_lean": "Agropecuario",
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          "primary_allowed": false,
          "reasons": [
            "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Agropecuario).",
            "Decision strength: 6.6/10",
            "Decision strength below 7",
            "Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
          ],
          "reliability_score": 62,
          "strength_v2_breakdown": [
            "Base decision score (v1)",
            "Market aligns with model",
            "Consensus-line +EV"
          ],
          "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
          "tier": "lean",
          "version": "v1"
        },
        "bet_status": "lean",
        "evidence": {
          "score": 80,
          "signals": [
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "statistical_edge",
              "label": "Statistical edge detected",
              "status": "pass"
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            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "market_agreement",
              "label": "Market has already priced much of the edge",
              "status": "caution"
            },
            {
              "icon": "\u2713",
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift supports model side",
              "status": "pass"
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            {
              "icon": "!",
              "key": "validation",
              "label": "Validation warning",
              "status": "caution"
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          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
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              "label": "Validation: Warning",
              "tone": "caution"
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            {
              "key": "gap",
              "label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
              "tone": "caution"
            },
            {
              "key": "steam",
              "label": "Market drift aligns with model",
              "tone": "ok"
            }
          ],
          "parts": {
            "alignment": 17.5,
            "data_quality": 12.0,
            "market_coverage": 3.3,
            "steam_coherence": 10.0,
            "validation": 14.0
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            "score": 49,
            "tier": "moderate",
            "tier_label": "Moderate"
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            "label": "Model Value",
            "score": 27,
            "tier": "low",
            "tier_label": "Low"
          },
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            "action": "lean",
            "label": "Selective Lean"
          }
        },
        "verdict": {
          "agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
          "alignment": {
            "key": "agree",
            "label": "Agree",
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            "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Agropecuario)."
          },
          "authority": {
            "action": "lean",
            "alignment": {
              "key": "agree",
              "label": "Agree",
              "model_strong": false,
              "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Agropecuario)."
            },
            "alignment_key": "agree",
            "best_consensus_ev": 0.0929,
            "best_outlier_ev": 0.5548,
            "confidence_band": "Moderate",
            "decision_strength": 6.6,
            "decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
            "decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
            "execution_confidence": 49,
            "gates_failed": [
              "Decision strength below 7"
            ],
            "headline": "Selective Lean",
            "icon": "\u2192",
            "label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
            "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
            "model_lean": "Agropecuario",
            "outlier_detected": true,
            "primary_allowed": false,
            "reasons": [
              "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Agropecuario).",
              "Decision strength: 6.6/10",
              "Decision strength below 7",
              "Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
            ],
            "reliability_score": 62,
            "strength_v2_breakdown": [
              "Base decision score (v1)",
              "Market aligns with model",
              "Consensus-line +EV"
            ],
            "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
            "tier": "lean",
            "version": "v1"
          },
          "headline": "Selective Lean",
          "icon": "\u2192",
          "label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
          "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
          "tier": "lean"
        },
        "why": {
          "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
          "bullets": [
            "Model: Nueva Chicago 1.22 xG vs Agropecuario 1.38 \u2192 Agropecuario 39.0%",
            "Market: Nueva Chicago ~23.9% implied",
            "Market Drift: Nueva Chicago odds \u2191 +7.5%"
          ],
          "one_liner": "Model leans Agropecuario, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
          "title": "Why?"
        }
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": -12.86,
          "fair_prob": 31.48,
          "label": "Nueva Chicago",
          "market_prob": 44.34,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -2.23,
          "fair_prob": 29.54,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 31.77,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 15.08,
          "fair_prob": 38.97,
          "label": "Agropecuario",
          "market_prob": 23.89,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 48.2,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 51.8,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 54.4,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": null,
          "fair_prob": 45.6,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": null,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 15.08,
        "fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
        "hero_side": "away",
        "hero_team_name": "Agropecuario",
        "market_prob_pct": 23.89,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Nueva Chicago"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "closing_capture": "PRE1",
        "closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Agropecuario\u0027s win probability at 39.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.9%, a difference of 15.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "strong",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 15.08,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "strong",
        "divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
        "divergence_tier": "strong",
        "edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Balanced match",
          "favourite_label": "Agropecuario",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
          "headline": "Balanced match",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 23.9,
          "model_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_score": 62,
          "reliability_tier": "limited",
          "summary": "The model and market both lean Agropecuario, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Nueva Chicago remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning",
          "value_split": {
            "execution_confidence": {
              "label": "Execution Confidence",
              "score": 49,
              "tier": "moderate",
              "tier_label": "Moderate"
            },
            "model_value": {
              "label": "Model Value",
              "score": 27,
              "tier": "low",
              "tier_label": "Low"
            },
            "recommendation": {
              "action": "candidate",
              "label": "Candidate +EV"
            }
          },
          "why": {
            "action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
            "bullets": [
              "Model: Nueva Chicago 1.22 xG vs Agropecuario 1.38 \u2192 Agropecuario 39.0%",
              "Market: Nueva Chicago ~23.9% implied",
              "Market Drift: Nueva Chicago odds \u2191 +7.5%"
            ],
            "one_liner": "Model leans Agropecuario, but market pricing diverges by 15 pp.",
            "title": "Why?"
          }
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 15.08,
        "hero_label": "Agropecuario",
        "hero_side": "away",
        "market_activity": "Nueva Chicago odds lengthened \u2191 +7.5%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Nueva Chicago has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
          "gap_tier": "strong",
          "lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Agropecuario.",
          "note": "Drift away from Nueva Chicago \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Agropecuario.",
            "However, Nueva Chicago has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (4/12 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
            "Drift away from Nueva Chicago \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate favors Agropecuario more strongly than current market pricing.",
            "At the same time, Nueva Chicago has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Market confirmation remains limited (4/12), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "market_source": "closing_1x2",
        "max_gap_pp": 15.08,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 7.5 pp (at 39.0%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 7.5,
          "max_prob_pct": 39.0,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "medium",
          "tier_label": "Medium"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
        "overall_assessment": {
          "badge_class": "strong",
          "largest_gap_label": "Agropecuario",
          "largest_gap_pp": 15.1,
          "lead": "The model rates Agropecuario considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
          "level": "strong",
          "max_gap_pp": 15.1,
          "title": "Strong Disagreement"
        },
        "rows": [
          {
            "difference_pp": -12.86,
            "edge_pp": -12.86,
            "fair_prob_pct": 31.48,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Nueva Chicago",
            "market_prob_pct": 44.34,
            "side": "home",
            "signal_key": "market_higher",
            "signal_label": "Market Higher"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": -2.23,
            "edge_pp": -2.23,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.54,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 31.77,
            "side": "draw",
            "signal_key": "aligned",
            "signal_label": "Aligned"
          },
          {
            "difference_pp": 15.08,
            "edge_pp": 15.08,
            "fair_prob_pct": 38.97,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Agropecuario",
            "market_prob_pct": 23.89,
            "side": "away",
            "signal_key": "model_edge",
            "signal_label": "Model Edge"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Nueva Chicago \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.5% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Nueva Chicago (23.9%).",
          "Nueva Chicago odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +7.5%, 4/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Agropecuario, Market \u2192 Nueva Chicago, while Nueva Chicago odds drifted longer (market fade).",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 25.06,
        "closing_odds": 3.99,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 25.06,
        "entry_odds": 3.99,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 4,
        "books_reacting_detail": [
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 8,
            "bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 7.5
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 1,
            "bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
            "is_sharp": false,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 5.1
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 5,
            "bookmaker_name": "SBO",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 3.0
          },
          {
            "bookmaker_id": 3,
            "bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
            "is_sharp": true,
            "move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.5%",
            "odds_delta_pct": 2.5
          }
        ],
        "books_total": 12,
        "breadth_display": "4/12",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.15,
        "is_drift": true,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
        "move_pct_abs": 7.5,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 107h 42m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Volatile two-way pricing on Nueva Chicago (swing 2.15 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.15) \u2014 net 7.5% but intraday chop is elevated.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_delta_pct": 7.5,
        "odds_path": {
          "chart_y_labels": [
            "2.15",
            "2.08",
            "2.00"
          ],
          "display": "2.15 \u2192 1.95 \u2192 2.15",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 107h 42m",
          "pick_team": "Nueva Chicago",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.15"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "1.95"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.15"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_points": [
            2.0,
            2.15
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
          "summary_boxes": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "2.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "low",
              "value": "2.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "high",
              "value": "2.15"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.15"
            }
          ]
        },
        "open_odds": 2.0,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Nueva Chicago",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_impact": {
          "current_odds": 2.15,
          "label": "Sharp signal",
          "move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
          "open_odds": 2.0,
          "summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
          "team": "Nueva Chicago",
          "tone": "with"
        },
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "4/12",
        "current_odds": 2.15,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +7.5%",
        "open_odds": 2.0,
        "pick_team": "Nueva Chicago",
        "steam_score": 30,
        "steam_team_name": "Nueva Chicago",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 15.1,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_goal_display": null,
      "away_team_display_name": "Agropecuario",
      "away_team_id": 462,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/462.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Agropecuario",
      "away_team_slug": "agropecuario",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_display_name": "Argentina",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_id": 6,
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1498662,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_goal_display": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_display_name": "Nueva Chicago",
      "home_team_id": 484,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/484.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Nueva Chicago",
      "home_team_slug": "nueva-chicago",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_country_display": "Argentina",
      "league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
      "league_id": 129,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera Nacional",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-07-17 21:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "score_penalty_away": null,
      "score_penalty_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
      "venue_name": "Estadio Nueva Chicago"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.2322,
            "best_odd": 3.99,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.035,
            "ev": 0.0929,
            "implied_prob": 0.2389,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2389,
              "draw": 0.3177,
              "home": 0.4434
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3897,
            "p_final": 0.2739
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.29,
            "best_odd": 3.0,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0065,
            "ev": -0.0662,
            "implied_prob": 0.3177,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2389,
              "draw": 0.3177,
              "home": 0.4434
            },
            "model_prob": 0.2954,
            "p_final": 0.3113
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.3633,
            "best_odd": 2.15,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0467,
            "ev": -0.1471,
            "implied_prob": 0.4434,
            "joint_probs": {
              "away": 0.2389,
              "draw": 0.3177,
              "home": 0.4434
            },
            "model_prob": 0.3149,
            "p_final": 0.3967
          }
        },
        "1x2_outlier": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
          "away": {
            "best_odd": 3.99,
            "edge": 0.139,
            "ev": 0.5548,
            "implied_prob": 0.2506,
            "model_prob": 0.3897
          },
          "draw": {
            "best_odd": 3.0,
            "edge": -0.0379,
            "ev": -0.1138,
            "implied_prob": 0.3333,
            "model_prob": 0.2954
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "best_odd": 2.15,
            "edge": -0.1502,
            "ev": -0.3229,
            "implied_prob": 0.4651,
            "model_prob": 0.3149
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "ev_available": false,
          "n_bookmakers": 0,
          "reliability": "low"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.3.1"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_consensus_ev": 0.0929,
      "best_outlier_ev": 0.5548,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0929,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
        ],
        "breakdown_v2": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 6.6,
        "score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
        "strength_v2": true
      },
      "decision_strength_v2": {
        "breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "score": 6.6
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "B",
        "stake_factor": 0.5
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "final_action": "lean",
      "final_decision": {
        "action": "lean",
        "alignment": {
          "key": "agree",
          "label": "Agree",
          "model_strong": false,
          "summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Agropecuario)."
        },
        "alignment_key": "agree",
        "best_consensus_ev": 0.0929,
        "best_outlier_ev": 0.5548,
        "confidence_band": "Moderate",
        "decision_strength": 6.6,
        "decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
        "decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
        "execution_confidence": 49,
        "gates_failed": [
          "Decision strength below 7"
        ],
        "headline": "Selective Lean",
        "icon": "\u2192",
        "label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
        "market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
        "model_lean": "Agropecuario",
        "outlier_detected": true,
        "primary_allowed": false,
        "reasons": [
          "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Agropecuario).",
          "Decision strength: 6.6/10",
          "Decision strength below 7",
          "Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
        ],
        "reliability_score": 62,
        "strength_v2_breakdown": [
          "Base decision score (v1)",
          "Market aligns with model",
          "Consensus-line +EV"
        ],
        "subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
        "tier": "lean",
        "version": "v1"
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
          "draw_prob": 0.2954,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3897,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.16
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "consensus_odds": 3.99,
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.035,
          "ev": 0.0929,
          "implied_prob": 0.2389,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.3897,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Agropecuario"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.544,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": null,
          "ev": null,
          "implied_prob": null,
          "model_prob": 0.518,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1498662,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0929,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3897,
        "draw": 0.2954,
        "home": 0.3149
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "model_summary"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Agropecuario",
        "home": "Nueva Chicago"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.039823,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0929,
        "implied_prob": 0.2389,
        "market": "1x2",
        "model_prob": 0.3897,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "primary_strength": "weak",
        "risk_band": "speculative",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "away",
        "side_label": "Agropecuario",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": true
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1498662,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-07-17T20:59:07.049847+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}