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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Jedinstvo Jedinstvo ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.5
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Jedinstvo win · Jedinstvo 2–0 Jezero
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): +37.5%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2da92587473a456e85f87e0ea473161e8b4b5eccabc6f22f0b76bb63350ab368",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
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"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or Jezero and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Jezero"
},
"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Jedinstvo",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0511,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3665,
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.6,
"draw": 25.7,
"home": 41.8
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 34,
"away_score_rate": 76.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 18,
"home_played": 34,
"home_score_rate": 47.1,
"no_prob": 64.0,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 64.0,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 36.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.0,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
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},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Jedinstvo or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Jedinstvo or Jezero",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Jezero",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Jezero",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.25,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 39.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 60.9,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.25,
"under_prob": 60.9
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Jezero",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Jedinstvo",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 3.25,
"model_vs_closing": [
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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],
"movement": [
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"implied_delta_pp": 1.12,
"implied_early_pct": 35.53,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.2,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
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"implied_delta_pp": -0.28,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.09,
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"implied_delta_pp": 3.25,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.7,
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"implied_delta_pp": -3.25,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 13.2
}
},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1584,
"ev_yes": -0.298,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1584,
"no_prob": 64.0,
"sort_key": 10292.56,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 36.0
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1163,
"ev_under": -0.0195,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 39.1,
"sort_key": 1795.125,
"tier": "bad_ev",
"under_prob": 60.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0306,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
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"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side_label": "Jedinstvo",
"sort_key": 1792.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.6,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 13.2
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3748,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3748.webp",
"away_team_name": "Jezero",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/me.svg",
"country_name": "Montenegro",
"fixture_id": 1497941,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 3747,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3747.webp",
"home_team_name": "Jedinstvo",
"league_country": "Montenegro",
"league_id": 355,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/355.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Liga de Montenegro",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-20 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4355,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0093,
"ev": -0.1083,
"implied_prob": 0.3471,
"model_prob": 0.3257,
"p_final": 0.3378
},
"draw": {
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"best_odd": 3.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0085,
"ev": -0.1109,
"implied_prob": 0.2864,
"model_prob": 0.2567,
"p_final": 0.2779
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"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4155,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": -0.0306,
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},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 1.95,
"edge_no": 0.1246,
"edge_yes": -0.1246,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1584,
"ev_yes": -0.298,
"implied_no": 0.5154,
"implied_yes": 0.4846,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.26,
"best_under_odd": 1.61,
"edge_over": -0.027,
"edge_under": 0.027,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1163,
"ev_under": -0.0195,
"implied_over": 0.418,
"implied_under": 0.582,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1584,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.36,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.391,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.609,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0212,
"ev": -0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.3665,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Jedinstvo"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1246,
"ev": 0.1584,
"implied_prob": 0.5154,
"model_prob": 0.64,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": 0.027,
"ev": -0.0195,
"implied_prob": 0.582,
"model_prob": 0.609,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1497941,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1584,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Jezero",
"home": "Jedinstvo"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.101376,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1584,
"implied_prob": 0.5154,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.64,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497941,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-20T18:34:13.679183+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera Liga de Montenegro — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sutjeska | 36 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 72 |
| 2 | Mornar Bar | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 69 |
| 3 | FK Petrovac | 36 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 51 |
| 4 | Dečić | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 51 |
| 5 | Buducnost Podgorica | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 48 |
| 6 | Mladost DG | 36 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 46 |
| 7 | Arsenal Tivat | 36 | 12 | 10 | 14 | 46 |
| 8 | Jezero | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 41 |
| 9 | Bokelj | 36 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 36 |
| 10 | Jedinstvo | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 35 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sutjeska | 36 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 72 |
| 2 | Mornar Bar | 36 | 51 | 29 | +22 | 69 |
| 3 | Mladost DG | 36 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 46 |
| 4 | FK Petrovac | 36 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 51 |
| 5 | Dečić | 36 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 51 |
| 6 | Jezero | 36 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 41 |
| 7 | Bokelj | 36 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 36 |
| 8 | Buducnost Podgorica | 36 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 48 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tivat | 36 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Jedinstvo | 36 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 35 |
