Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Bjarg Bjarg ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bjarg win · Kvik Halden 2–3 Bjarg
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "49a5abaa65836e74adcf5012683ac7384d601ec49e65f8725e535553427e3bb0",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.41,
"away_win_prob": 0.4042,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.458,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2944,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.47,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.32,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.19,
"home_win_prob": 0.3014,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Bjarg",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Bjarg"
},
"away_xg": 1.41,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bjarg",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0851,
"edge_gap": 0.1036,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4899,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 40.5,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 30.1
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.87
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.87,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bjarg Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.04,
"market_odds": 1.87,
"model_odds": 2.47,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -13.0,
"value_pct": -24.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 6,
"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 20,
"away_score_rate": 75.6,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 69.6,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.41,
"home_expected": 1.19,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Kvik Halden or Draw",
"prob": 59.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Kvik Halden or Bjarg",
"prob": 70.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Bjarg",
"prob": 69.8
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Kvik Halden or Bjarg",
"pick_prob": 70.5
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.4,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 30.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Bjarg"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.1,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 10.8,
"implied_prob": 26.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.4,
"odds": 3.77
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Bjarg",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 48.99,
"draw": 24.3,
"home": 26.71
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 12:59:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-03 12:31:58",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Kvik Halden",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 26.71,
"gap_pp": 3.41,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 30.12
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.3,
"gap_pp": 5.11,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.41
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.99,
"gap_pp": -8.51,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 40.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 62.47,
"gap_pp": -14.27,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 37.53,
"gap_pp": 14.27,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.43,
"early": 3.43,
"implied_closing_pct": 26.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 26.71,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.77,
"early": 3.77,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.3,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.87,
"early": 1.87,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.99,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.99,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.49,
"early": 1.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 62.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 62.47,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.48,
"early": 2.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 37.53,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 37.53,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 14.3,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.5,
"ev": 0.25,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 10.0,
"market_prob": 0.1,
"market_prob_pct": 10.0,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 7.4
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.19,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1394,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0209,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3678,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1917,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0288,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.6322,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6034
},
"p_final": 0.3887,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.3002,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0243,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1394,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0243,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3887
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -27.7,
"text": "-27.7%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 34.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3468,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10462.12,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"edge": 0.015,
"edge_pp": 1.5,
"market_prob": 0.3603,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.3603,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3753
},
"p_final": 0.3753,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1587,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0505,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.6397,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6191
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2366,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 23.7,
"text": "+23.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.187,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.7,
"text": "-18.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.2366,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.8,
"sort_key": 10212.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.2
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1672,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.7,
"text": "-16.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4899,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0306,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.1,
"text": "-3.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.243,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.3%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bjarg",
"sort_key": 1792.35,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"alert_team": "Kvik Halden",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.57,
"hero_label": "Bjarg",
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"market_team": "Bjarg",
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_team": "Bjarg",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bjarg at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bjarg as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bjarg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1672,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4899,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.243,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.125,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.7,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.2,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 71,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.57,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.57,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.41,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.19,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.41,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.19 \u00b7 Away xG 1.41 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +4%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"steam_team": "Kvik Halden",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bjarg at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bjarg as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bjarg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1672,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4899,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.243,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kvik Halden 1.19 xG vs Bjarg 1.41 \u2192 Bjarg 40.4%",
"Market: Bjarg ~49.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Kvik Halden \u2193 -14.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bjarg, but sharp money moved toward Kvik Halden.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 3.43,
"fair_prob": 30.14,
"label": "Kvik Halden",
"market_prob": 26.71,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.14,
"fair_prob": 29.44,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.57,
"fair_prob": 40.42,
"label": "Bjarg",
"market_prob": 48.99,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.11,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.31,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.11,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.69,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.75,
"fair_prob": 54.2,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 63.95,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 9.75,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 36.05,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Bjarg",
"market_prob_pct": 48.99,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Kvik Halden"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Bjarg\u0027s win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 8.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.57,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bjarg",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 49.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.6,
"model_prob_pct": 40.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 71,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 19,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kvik Halden 1.19 xG vs Bjarg 1.41 \u2192 Bjarg 40.4%",
"Market: Bjarg ~49.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Kvik Halden \u2193 -14.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bjarg, but sharp money moved toward Kvik Halden.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.57,
"hero_label": "Bjarg",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Kvik Halden odds shortened \u2193 -14.7%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Kvik Halden, with odds shortening by 14.7%. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Bjarg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Buying interest on Kvik Halden \u2014 odds shortened by 14.7%.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Bjarg. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Kvik Halden, with odds shortening by 14.7%. Confirmation remains limited (1/8 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"Buying interest on Kvik Halden \u2014 odds shortened by 14.7%."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Bjarg above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Kvik Halden has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 14.7%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/8), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.57,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 10.3 pp (at 40.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 10.3,
"max_prob_pct": 40.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Bjarg",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.6,
"lead": "The closing market prices Bjarg higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.6,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 3.43,
"edge_pp": 3.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.14,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kvik Halden",
"market_prob_pct": 26.71,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.14,
"edge_pp": 5.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.44,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.3,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.57,
"edge_pp": -8.57,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.42,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bjarg",
"market_prob_pct": 48.99,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Buying interest on Kvik Halden \u2014 odds shortened by 14.7%.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bjarg (49.0%).",
"Kvik Halden has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -14.7%, 1/8).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bjarg, Market \u2192 Bjarg, Recent sharp money \u2192 Kvik Halden.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.48,
"closing_odds": 1.87,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.48,
"entry_odds": 1.87,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 14.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 47m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Kvik Halden (14.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -14.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.75",
"3.48",
"3.20"
],
"display": "3.75 \u2192 3.20 \u2192 3.20",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 13h 47m",
"pick_team": "Kvik Halden",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
3.43,
3.2
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 28.0,10.5 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.20"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Kvik Halden",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.2,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Market moved toward Kvik Halden while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Kvik Halden",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/8",
"current_odds": 3.2,
"move_display": "\u2193 -14.7%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Kvik Halden",
"steam_score": 39,
"steam_team_name": "Kvik Halden",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bjarg",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Bjarg",
"away_team_id": 16217,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16217.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bjarg",
"away_team_public_id": "4KpsVmYOOGlpbs",
"away_team_slug": "bjarg",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1496163,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Kvik Halden",
"home_team_id": 7004,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7004.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kvik Halden",
"home_team_public_id": "0oUuE6ngZQqXto",
"home_team_slug": "kvik-halden",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kvik-halden",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n - Grupo 1 de Noruega",
"league_id": 473,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/473.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n - Grupo 1 de Noruega",
"league_public_id": "0nQAJNyqoo6P9R",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 13:00:00",
"public_id": "16rc9SPbUuHtJN",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Halden",
"venue_name": "Halden Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5234,
"best_odd": 1.87,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0446,
"ev": -0.1672,
"implied_prob": 0.4899,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4899,
"draw": 0.243,
"home": 0.2671
},
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"p_final": 0.4454
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.277,
"best_odd": 3.77,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": -0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.243,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4899,
"draw": 0.243,
"home": 0.2671
},
"model_prob": 0.2941,
"p_final": 0.2571
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2847,
"best_odd": 3.43,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0097,
"ev": -0.0506,
"implied_prob": 0.2671,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4899,
"draw": 0.243,
"home": 0.2671
},
"model_prob": 0.3012,
"p_final": 0.2768
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.87,
"edge": -0.13,
"ev": -0.2431,
"implied_prob": 0.5348,
"model_prob": 0.4048
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.77,
"edge": 0.0288,
"ev": 0.1086,
"implied_prob": 0.2653,
"model_prob": 0.2941
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.43,
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": 0.0329,
"implied_prob": 0.2915,
"model_prob": 0.3012
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1536,
"alpha_yes": 0.2112,
"best_no_odd": 2.7,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0975,
"edge_yes": -0.0975,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.2366,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0505,
"ev_yes": -0.187,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1178,
"implied_no": 0.3605,
"implied_yes": 0.6395,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.3603,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3753
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.6397,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6191
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3753,
"p_final_yes": 0.6191,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1917,
"alpha_under": 0.1394,
"best_over_odd": 1.5,
"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.46,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.51,
"edge_over": -0.1511,
"edge_under": 0.1511,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.277,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.119,
"ev_under": 0.3468,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0243,
"implied_over": 0.6331,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6322,
"implied_under": 0.3669,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3678,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1917,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0288,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.6322,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6034
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1394,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0243,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3887
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6034,
"p_final_under": 0.3887,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.4
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.6,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.6,
"summary": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3468,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.4,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 31,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bjarg at 40.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 49.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bjarg as the value side (40.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bjarg",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +34.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +34.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +34.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "71 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "31 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+34.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"Decision strength: 4.4/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 71,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward Kvik Halden, but the model still strongly favours Bjarg.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1672,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4899,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.243,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.3%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 4.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.22
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"draw_prob": 0.2941,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4048,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0446,
"ev": -0.1672,
"implied_prob": 0.4899,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bjarg"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.53,
"edge": 0.015,
"market_prob": 0.3603,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1536,
"best_odd": 2.53,
"edge": 0.015,
"ev": -0.0505,
"implied_prob": 0.3603,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"p_final": 0.3753
},
"p_final": 0.3753,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0505,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2112,
"best_odd": 1.425,
"edge": -0.0206,
"ev": -0.1178,
"implied_prob": 0.6397,
"model_prob": 0.542,
"p_final": 0.6191
}
},
"edge": 0.0975,
"ev": 0.2366,
"implied_prob": 0.3605,
"model_prob": 0.458,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1394,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0209,
"market_prob": 0.3678,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1917,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0288,
"ev": -0.119,
"implied_prob": 0.6322,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6034
},
"p_final": 0.3887,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0243,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1394,
"best_odd": 2.51,
"edge": 0.0209,
"ev": -0.0243,
"implied_prob": 0.3678,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3887
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1511,
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3669,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1496163,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3468,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4048,
"draw": 0.2941,
"home": 0.3012
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2366,
"implied_prob": 0.3605,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2366,
"implied_prob": 0.3605,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.458,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bjarg",
"home": "Kvik Halden"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.12575,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.3669,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1672,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.7%",
"consensus_odds": 1.87,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.4899,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4048,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.53475935828877,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.243,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-24.3%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1496163,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T12:59:14.547919+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Kvik Halden & Bjarg!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Segunda División - Grupo 1 de Noruega — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerv | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Mjondalen | 23 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 47 |
| 3 | Brattvåg | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 45 |
| 4 | Bjarg | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | Sotra | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 42 |
| 6 | Notodden | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 35 |
| 7 | Kvik Halden | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 8 | Træff | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 9 | Arendal | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 27 |
| 10 | Pors Grenland | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 26 |
| 11 | Sandviken | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 |
| 13 | Eik-Tønsberg | 22 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 10 |
| 14 | Vidar | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 10 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sotra | 23 | 50 | 25 | +25 | 42 |
| 2 | Jerv | 23 | 49 | 23 | +26 | 53 |
| 3 | Brattvåg | 22 | 47 | 28 | +19 | 45 |
| 4 | Bjarg | 22 | 47 | 28 | +19 | 44 |
| 5 | Mjondalen | 23 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 47 |
| 6 | Træff | 22 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 30 |
| 7 | Kvik Halden | 23 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 34 |
| 8 | Sandviken | 22 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 25 |
| 9 | Arendal | 23 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 27 |
| 10 | Notodden | 22 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 35 |
| 11 | Pors Grenland | 23 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 26 |
| 12 | Lysekloster | 22 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 15 |
| 13 | Eik-Tønsberg | 22 | 24 | 50 | -26 | 10 |
| 14 | Vidar | 22 | 20 | 60 | -40 | 10 |
