Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No No ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Bryne Bryne ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bryne win · Bryne 1–0 Lyn
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "b00090c2b356f653ef7bf6d56b944a3daf065669f86a7494a416773d685fb531",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.23,
"away_win_prob": 0.3194,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.456,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2957,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 3.13,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.38,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.6,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.37,
"home_win_prob": 0.3849,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Bryne or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Bryne"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Bryne",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1298,
"edge_gap": 0.0651,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5145,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 32.0,
"draw": 29.6,
"home": 38.5
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.85
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.85,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Bryne Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 1.94,
"market_odds": 1.85,
"model_odds": 2.6,
"overround": 5.1,
"prob_edge": -15.6,
"value_pct": -28.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 5,
"away_failed_to_score": 6,
"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 7,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 23,
"home_score_rate": 74.6,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
"home_expected": 1.37,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Bryne or Draw",
"prob": 68.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Bryne or Lyn",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Lyn",
"prob": 61.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Bryne or Lyn",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 31.9,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Bryne"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.7,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 20.9,
"implied_prob": 26.4,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Lyn Win",
"model_prob": 31.9,
"odds": 3.79
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Lyn",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 25.11,
"draw": 23.44,
"home": 51.45
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 12:29:02",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 12:02:29",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Bryne",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.45,
"gap_pp": -12.98,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.44,
"gap_pp": 6.14,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 25.11,
"gap_pp": 6.84,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 31.95
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.08,
"gap_pp": -15.88,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.92,
"gap_pp": 15.88,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.45,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.45,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.06,
"early": 4.06,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.44,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.44,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.79,
"early": 3.79,
"implied_closing_pct": 25.11,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 25.11,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.48,
"early": 1.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.08,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.64,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.92,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.92,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 15.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 2.3,
"ev": 0.225,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.8,
"market_prob": 0.102,
"market_prob_pct": 10.2,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.7
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.37,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1425,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0198,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.3793,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.196,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0272,
"ev": -0.1097,
"implied_prob": 0.6207,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5935
},
"p_final": 0.399,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2717,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0204,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1425,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.3793,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.399
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2529,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -25.3,
"text": "-25.3%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 32.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3209,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10438.81,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0134,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.3703,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.3703,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3837
},
"p_final": 0.3837,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 8.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.14,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0407,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0185,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.6297,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6112
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 14.0,
"text": "+14.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.14,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10126.0,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1643,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.4,
"text": "-16.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0215,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 2.1,
"text": "+2.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2885,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Bryne",
"sort_key": 5217.2,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"alert_team": "Bryne",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.96,
"hero_label": "Bryne",
"market_prob_pct": 51.5,
"market_team": "Bryne",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Bryne",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bryne at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bryne as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bryne",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1643,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2885,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (13 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 18.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 58,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 12.96,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 12.96,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"steam_team": "Bryne",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bryne at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bryne as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bryne",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1643,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2885,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bryne 1.37 xG vs Lyn 1.23 \u2192 Bryne 38.5%",
"Market: Bryne ~51.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Bryne odds \u2191 +5.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bryne, but the market has moved away from Bryne.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -12.96,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Bryne",
"market_prob": 51.45,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.13,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.44,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.83,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Lyn",
"market_prob": 25.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.92,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.12,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.92,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.88,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.32,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.72,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.32,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.28,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -12.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Bryne",
"market_prob_pct": 51.45,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Bryne"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Bryne\u0027s win probability at 51.5%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 12.96,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bryne",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 51.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.0,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 58,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 12,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Bryne 1.37 xG vs Lyn 1.23 \u2192 Bryne 38.5%",
"Market: Bryne ~51.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Bryne odds \u2191 +5.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bryne, but the market has moved away from Bryne.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -12.96,
"hero_label": "Bryne",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Bryne odds lengthened \u2191 +5.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Bryne than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Bryne.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Bryne than the current fair estimate.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Bryne."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Bryne more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Bryne (\u2191 +5.7%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Bryne."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 12.96,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Bryne",
"largest_gap_pp": -13.0,
"lead": "The closing market prices Bryne higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 13.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -12.96,
"edge_pp": -12.96,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bryne",
"market_prob_pct": 51.45,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.13,
"edge_pp": 6.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.44,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.83,
"edge_pp": 6.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Lyn",
"market_prob_pct": 25.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Bryne.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bryne (51.5%).",
"However, Bryne has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +5.7%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bryne, Market \u2192 Bryne, while Bryne odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.05,
"closing_odds": 1.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 123h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Bryne (5.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"1.85",
"1.80",
"1.75"
],
"display": "1.87 \u2192 1.70 \u2192 1.85",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 123h 15m",
"pick_team": "Bryne",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.87"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.75,
1.85
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "1.85"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "1.85"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.75,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Bryne",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Bryne",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 1.85,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"open_odds": 1.75,
"summary": "Market moved away from Bryne while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Bryne",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"open_odds": 1.75,
"pick_team": "Bryne",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Bryne",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "lyn",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Lyn",
"away_team_id": 7006,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7006.webp",
"away_team_name": "Lyn",
"away_team_public_id": "4Y5O5vjFI9fZdp",
"away_team_slug": "lyn",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1495959,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Bryne",
"home_team_id": 2142,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2142.webp",
"home_team_name": "Bryne",
"home_team_public_id": "5Q7IXKj1RZj50N",
"home_team_slug": "bryne",
"ht.home_team_slug": "bryne",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Noruega",
"league_id": 104,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/104.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Noruega",
"league_public_id": "2DBr6CERz5dKYQ",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 12:30:00",
"public_id": "5KnfdKZY7LCZ8H",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Bryne",
"venue_name": "Bryne Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2692,
"best_odd": 3.79,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0184,
"ev": 0.0215,
"implied_prob": 0.2511,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2511,
"draw": 0.2344,
"home": 0.5145
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.2695
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1816,
"best_odd": 4.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.003,
"implied_prob": 0.2344,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2511,
"draw": 0.2344,
"home": 0.5145
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2456
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4832,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0627,
"ev": -0.1643,
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2511,
"draw": 0.2344,
"home": 0.5145
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.4517
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.79,
"edge": 0.0556,
"ev": 0.2109,
"implied_prob": 0.2639,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.06,
"edge": 0.0496,
"ev": 0.2012,
"implied_prob": 0.2463,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.1559,
"ev": -0.2884,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1569,
"alpha_yes": 0.2157,
"best_no_odd": 2.5,
"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0832,
"edge_yes": -0.0832,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.14,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0407,
"ev_yes": -0.184,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1015,
"implied_no": 0.3728,
"implied_yes": 0.6272,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.3703,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3837
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0185,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.6297,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6112
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3837,
"p_final_yes": 0.6112,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.196,
"alpha_under": 0.1425,
"best_over_odd": 1.55,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.455,
"edge_over": -0.1392,
"edge_under": 0.1392,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2529,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1097,
"ev_under": 0.3209,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0204,
"implied_over": 0.6212,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6207,
"implied_under": 0.3788,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3793,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.196,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0272,
"ev": -0.1097,
"implied_prob": 0.6207,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5935
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1425,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.3793,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.399
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5935,
"p_final_under": 0.399,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.9
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 13.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3209,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3209,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.9,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bryne at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 51.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bryne as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 13.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bryne",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +32.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +32.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +32.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "58 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+32.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 58,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bryne, but the model still strongly favours Bryne.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1643,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2885,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0215,
"implied_prob": 0.2511,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Lyn",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0627,
"ev": -0.1643,
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Bryne"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0134,
"market_prob": 0.3703,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1569,
"best_odd": 2.5,
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0407,
"implied_prob": 0.3703,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3837
},
"p_final": 0.3837,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0407,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2157,
"best_odd": 1.47,
"edge": -0.0185,
"ev": -0.1015,
"implied_prob": 0.6297,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6112
}
},
"edge": 0.0832,
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3728,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1425,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0198,
"market_prob": 0.3793,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.196,
"best_odd": 1.5,
"edge": -0.0272,
"ev": -0.1097,
"implied_prob": 0.6207,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5935
},
"p_final": 0.399,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0204,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1425,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0198,
"ev": -0.0204,
"implied_prob": 0.3793,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.399
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1392,
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3788,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1495959,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3209,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3728,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.14,
"implied_prob": 0.3728,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Lyn",
"home": "Bryne"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.116358,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3209,
"implied_prob": 0.3788,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1643,
"consensus_ev_display": "-16.4%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5145,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -13.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2885,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-28.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1495959,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T12:29:07.609271+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Bryne & Lyn!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Primera División de Noruega — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haugesund | 23 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 52 |
| 2 | Kongsvinger | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | Stromsgodset | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 48 |
| 4 | Stabæk | 23 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 45 |
| 5 | ODD | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Bryne | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 35 |
| 7 | Hødd | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 34 |
| 8 | Egersund | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 |
| 9 | Ranheim | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 10 | Lyn | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 11 | Moss | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 12 | Strømmen | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 |
| 13 | Sandnes Ulf | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 24 |
| 14 | Sogndal | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 23 |
| 15 | Åsane | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| 16 | Raufoss | 23 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haugesund | 23 | 72 | 39 | +33 | 52 |
| 2 | Kongsvinger | 23 | 68 | 35 | +33 | 50 |
| 3 | Stromsgodset | 23 | 60 | 31 | +29 | 48 |
| 4 | Stabæk | 23 | 57 | 29 | +28 | 45 |
| 5 | Ranheim | 23 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 28 |
| 6 | ODD | 23 | 47 | 36 | +11 | 36 |
| 7 | Lyn | 23 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 28 |
| 8 | Hødd | 23 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 34 |
| 9 | Moss | 23 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 25 |
| 10 | Sogndal | 23 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 23 |
| 11 | Egersund | 23 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 29 |
| 12 | Strømmen | 23 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 25 |
| 13 | Åsane | 23 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 20 |
| 14 | Bryne | 23 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 35 |
| 15 | Sandnes Ulf | 23 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 24 |
| 16 | Raufoss | 23 | 26 | 61 | -35 | 19 |
