Ilves vs FF Jaro Statistics & Analysis

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      "afp_away_win_prob": 0.1504,
      "afp_draw_prob": 0.1776,
      "afp_home_win_prob": 0.672,
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.34,
      "away_win_prob": 0.1504,
      "away_win_prob_posterior": 0.1504,
      "bayes_applied": 1,
      "btts_no_prob": 0.294,
      "btts_yes_prob": 0.706,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.1776,
      "draw_prob_posterior": 0.1776,
      "fair_odds_away": 6.65,
      "fair_odds_away_posterior": 6.65,
      "fair_odds_draw": 5.63,
      "fair_odds_draw_posterior": 5.63,
      "fair_odds_home": 1.49,
      "fair_odds_home_posterior": 1.49,
      "home_predicted_xg": 2.93,
      "home_win_prob": 0.672,
      "home_win_prob_posterior": 0.672,
      "over_25_prob": 0.799,
      "prediction_confidence": "low",
      "under_25_prob": 0.201
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : Ilves or draw",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Ilves",
      "percent_away": "10%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "45%",
      "winner_name": "Ilves"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.34,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Ilves",
      "confidence": 67.2,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "high",
        "display_text": "Winner : Ilves",
        "edge": 0.0939,
        "edge_gap": 0.4939,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5778,
        "model_prob": 0.6717,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 15.1,
          "draw": 17.8,
          "home": 67.2
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "home",
        "selection_name": "Ilves"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.67
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#ff9800",
      "risk_key": "medium_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.67,
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        "display_market": "Ilves Win",
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        "label": "Home",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.73,
        "market_odds": 1.67,
        "model_odds": 1.49,
        "overround": 3.6,
        "prob_edge": 7.2,
        "value_pct": 12.1,
        "value_rating": "value_bet"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 2,
        "away_failed_to_score": 5,
        "away_played": 11,
        "away_score_rate": 73.8,
        "home_clean_sheet": 3,
        "home_failed_to_score": 1,
        "home_played": 11,
        "home_score_rate": 94.7,
        "no_prob": 29.4,
        "pick": "Yes",
        "pick_prob": 70.6,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 70.6
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.34,
        "home_expected": 2.93,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 2,
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            "prob": 8.0
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          {
            "away": 1,
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            "away": 0,
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            "prob": 6.0
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            "home": 3,
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            "prob": 5.9
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          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 4,
            "label": "4-1",
            "prob": 5.8
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Ilves or Draw",
            "prob": 85.0
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Ilves or FF Jaro",
            "prob": 82.2
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or FF Jaro",
            "prob": 32.8
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "1X",
        "pick_label": "Ilves or Draw",
        "pick_prob": 85.0
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 15.0,
        "draw_pct": 17.8,
        "home_pct": 67.2,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Ilves"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 4.27,
        "away_avg_scored": 0.9,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.3,
        "over_prob": 79.9,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 79.9,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "total_expected": 4.27,
        "under_prob": 20.1
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": 12.2,
        "implied_prob": 59.9,
        "is_value": true,
        "label": "Home",
        "market": "Ilves Win",
        "model_prob": 67.2,
        "odds": 1.67
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "FF Jaro",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Ilves",
      "largest_move_kind": null,
      "max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 57.78,
          "gap_pp": 9.39,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 67.17
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 22.44,
          "gap_pp": -4.66,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 17.78
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 19.77,
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          "kind": "1x2_a",
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 56.85,
          "gap_pp": 23.05,
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        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 43.15,
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      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 1.67,
          "early": 1.67,
          "implied_closing_pct": 57.78,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
          "implied_early_pct": 57.78,
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        {
          "closing": 4.3,
          "early": 4.3,
          "implied_closing_pct": 22.44,
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          "implied_early_pct": 22.44,
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        {
          "closing": 4.88,
          "early": 4.88,
          "implied_closing_pct": 19.77,
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          "implied_early_pct": 19.77,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
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        {
          "closing": 1.7,
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          "implied_closing_pct": 56.85,
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        {
          "closing": 2.24,
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          "implied_early_pct": 43.15,
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      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 23.1,
        "kind": "ou_o"
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    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "2-1",
        "prob": 8.0
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    },
    "home_xg": 2.93,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": 0.3423,
        "ev_over_display": {
          "capped": true,
          "raw_pct": 34.2,
          "text": "+25%+"
        },
        "ev_under": -0.5317,
        "ev_under_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -53.2,
          "text": "-53.2%"
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        "featured": true,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": 0.3423,
        "over_prob": 79.9,
        "sort_key": 10458.07,
        "tier": "best",
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        "value_side": "over"
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      {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": -0.3385,
        "ev_no_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": -33.9,
          "text": "-33.9%"
        },
        "ev_yes": 0.179,
        "ev_yes_display": {
          "capped": false,
          "raw_pct": 17.9,
          "text": "+17.9%"
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          "raw_pct": 4.6,
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          "raw_pct": 4.6,
          "text": "+4.6%"
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        "sort_key": 10041.22,
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        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 804.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "2-1",
        "top_prob": 8.0
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    ],
    "market_intelligence": {
      "betting_signal": {
        "alert_breadth": "13/13",
        "alert_breadth_note": "13/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2191 +10.8%",
        "alert_team": "Draw",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
        "divergence_pp": 9.4,
        "has_alert": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 9.42,
        "hero_label": "Ilves",
        "market_prob_pct": 57.8,
        "market_team": "Ilves",
        "model_prob_pct": 67.2,
        "model_team": "Ilves",
        "show": true,
        "status_icon": "\u2713",
        "status_key": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Reliable prediction",
        "status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
        "steam_score": 70,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Betting Signal"
      },
      "edge_rows": [
        {
          "edge_pp": 9.42,
          "fair_prob": 67.2,
          "label": "Ilves",
          "market_prob": 57.78,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "home"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.68,
          "fair_prob": 17.76,
          "label": "Draw",
          "market_prob": 22.44,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "draw"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -4.73,
          "fair_prob": 15.04,
          "label": "FF Jaro",
          "market_prob": 19.77,
          "market_type": "1x2",
          "outcome": "away"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 21.7,
          "fair_prob": 79.9,
          "label": "Over 2.5",
          "market_prob": 58.2,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "over"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -21.7,
          "fair_prob": 20.1,
          "label": "Under 2.5",
          "market_prob": 41.8,
          "market_type": "ou25",
          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 13.53,
          "fair_prob": 70.6,
          "label": "BTTS Yes",
          "market_prob": 57.07,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": -13.53,
          "fair_prob": 29.4,
          "label": "BTTS No",
          "market_prob": 42.93,
          "market_type": "btts",
          "outcome": "no"
        }
      ],
      "edge_snapshot": {
        "edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
        "edge_pp": 9.42,
        "fair_prob_pct": 67.2,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "Ilves",
        "market_prob_pct": 57.78,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Draw"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
        "comparison_available": true,
        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "moderate",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 9.42,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": false
        },
        "divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "moderate",
        "divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
        "divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
        "divergence_tier": "moderate",
        "edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "Ilves",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
          "market_prob_pct": 57.8,
          "model_prob_pct": 67.2,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Reliable prediction",
          "reliability_icon": "\u2713",
          "reliability_tier": "reliable",
          "summary": "Ilves leads both the model grid and market pricing directionally.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 9.42,
        "hero_label": "Ilves",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +10.8%.",
        "market_agreement": "moderate",
        "market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
        "market_interpretation": {
          "bullets": [
            "Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
          ],
          "follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
          "gap_tier": "mild",
          "lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ilves.",
          "note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ilves.",
            "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support)."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
        },
        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
            "The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Ilves.",
            "At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8%, suggesting weakening support.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (13/13) supports the current market view on Draw."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
        },
        "max_gap_pp": 9.42,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
          "status": "pass"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 49.4 pp (at 67.2%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 49.4,
          "max_prob_pct": 67.2,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 9.42,
            "fair_prob_pct": 67.2,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "Ilves",
            "market_prob_pct": 57.78,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -4.68,
            "fair_prob_pct": 17.76,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 22.44,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -4.73,
            "fair_prob_pct": 15.04,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "FF Jaro",
            "market_prob_pct": 19.77,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 10.8% (weakening support).",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Ilves (57.8%).",
          "However, Draw has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2191 +10.8%, 13/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ilves, Market \u2192 Ilves, Recent sharp money \u2192 Draw.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 59.88,
        "closing_odds": 1.67,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 59.88,
        "entry_odds": 1.67,
        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
        "model_validation_status": "pass",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 13,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "13/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 4.1,
        "move_context": "Largest move today",
        "move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
        "move_pct_abs": 10.8,
        "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
        "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 55h 47m",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Multi-book steam on Draw (10.8%, 13/13) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
          "Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "4.49 \u2192 3.46 \u2192 4.10",
          "move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
          "move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 55h 47m",
          "pick_team": "Draw",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "4.49"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "3.46"
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            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "4.10"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "up",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise"
        },
        "open_odds": 3.7,
        "page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2191 +10.8% market move detected",
        "phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
        "phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Draw \u2191 +10.8% market move detected",
        "sharp_leader": "Bet365",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "confirm",
        "signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
        "signal_key": "market_steam",
        "signal_label": "Steam",
        "steam_score": 70,
        "steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
        "steam_tier": "A",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "13/13",
        "current_odds": 4.1,
        "move_display": "\u2191 +10.8%",
        "open_odds": 3.7,
        "pick_team": "Draw",
        "steam_score": 70,
        "steam_team_name": "Draw",
        "steam_tier": "A"
      },
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        "current_divergence_pp": 9.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
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          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
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      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2075,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2075.webp",
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      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
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      "home_expected_goals": null,
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      "home_team_id": 1163,
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      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Tampere",
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          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
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          "reliability": "medium"
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          "reliability": "medium"
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          "under_prob": 0.201,
          "xg_diff": 1.59
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      "longshot_picks": [],
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          "value_side": "yes"
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          "value_side": "over"
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        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
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        "max_valid_ev": 0.3423,
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        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
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        "speculative_primary": false
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  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T14:59:12.366168+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}