Estadísticas / Fútbol / Finlandia. Veikkausliiga / HJK Helsinki vs Inter Turku

HJK Helsinki vs Inter Turku Statistics & Analysis

Jun 17, 2026 - 15:00
3 2.86
3 1.44
xG Accuracy: 63%
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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo

Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.

  • Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
  • Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (6 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
  • Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí ✔ Correcto
  • 1X2 HJK Helsinki Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
  • Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 1-1, 2-0 3-3 ✖ Incorrecto

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1480069

Closing Odds 2.59
AI Fair Odds 1.64
CLV +0.0%
Final Result Draw · HJK Helsinki 3–3 Inter Turku
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 60.9%
  • Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Inteligencia de mercado

Lectura de apoyo tras la elección principal: cómo se movió el feed de cierre priorizado frente al modelo.

Briefing de mercado

El mercado se mantuvo estable antes del inicio. No se detectó un cambio implícito relevante entre PRE30 y PRE1 en la captura priorizada.

A pesar del movimiento tardío limitado, el modelo sigue tasando HJK Helsinki (1X2),Más de 2,5 goles claramente por encima de lo implícito en esas capturas de cierre: es una lectura estática de «modelo vs precio», no de persecución tardía.

El modelo aún supera la implícita de cierre en Más de 2,5 goles en unos 27.9 puntos porcentuales — la señal de desajuste más clara de esta página.

Modelo vs implícita de cierre

Mercado Modelo % Implícita cierre % Brecha (pp)
HJK Helsinki (1X2) 60.9 37.4 +23.5
Dibujar (1X2) 19.7 27.5 -7.8
Inter Turku (1X2) 19.4 35.1 -15.7
Más de 2,5 goles 80.3 52.4 +27.9
Menos de 2,5 goles 19.7 47.6 -27.9
Qué significa

En simple: el modelo ronda el 80.3% en Más de 2,5 goles, mientras la captura de cierre implicaba unos 52.4%. La diferencia —unos 27.9 puntos porcentuales— es la mayor brecha modelo-mercado destacada aquí.

Definiciones rápidas: «implícita de cierre» es la probabilidad implícita en las cuotas finales capturadas (tras un de-vig simple). «Brecha (pp)» = porcentaje del modelo menos esa implícita, en puntos porcentuales (pp).

Movimiento de cuota antes del inicio

Una casa prioritaria por instantáneo (no todas). Ruta de capturas: PRE30 → PRE1 · Casa: Pinnacle

Entre paréntesis en columnas: Cierre = primera captura disponible en PRE1→PRE5→PRE10→PRE30; Temprano = primera en PRE30→PRE10→PRE5 distinta de Cierre.

Las cuotas detalladas están plegadas abajo — el movimiento implícito fue insignificante.

Ver tabla completa línea a línea
Mercado Temprano (PRE30) Cierre (PRE1) Δ implícita (pp)
HJK Helsinki (1X2) 2.59 2.59 0.0
Dibujar (1X2) 3.52 3.52 0.0
Inter Turku (1X2) 2.76 2.76 0.0
Más de 2,5 goles 1.85 1.85 0.0
Menos de 2,5 goles 2.04 2.04 0.0

El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.

View technical JSON
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        "alert_breadth_note": "10/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
        "alert_move": "\u2193 -0.8%",
        "alert_team": "Inter Turku",
        "alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
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        "title": "Betting Signal"
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          "market_prob": 37.39,
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          "outcome": "home"
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        {
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          "outcome": "draw"
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        {
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          "outcome": "away"
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          "outcome": "over"
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        {
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          "market_prob": 48.03,
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          "outcome": "under"
        },
        {
          "edge_pp": 15.95,
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          "outcome": "yes"
        },
        {
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          "market_prob": 43.25,
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          "outcome": "no"
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      ],
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        "edge_pp": 23.43,
        "fair_prob_pct": 60.82,
        "hero_side": "home",
        "hero_team_name": "HJK Helsinki",
        "market_prob_pct": 37.39,
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "steam_team_name": "Inter Turku"
      },
      "fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
      "fair_vs_market": {
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        "comparison_disabled": false,
        "degraded_note": "",
        "divergence_guard": {
          "divergence_level": "extreme",
          "edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
          "max_gap_pp": 23.43,
          "suppress_hero": false,
          "suppress_value_language": true
        },
        "divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
        "divergence_level": "extreme",
        "divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
        "divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
        "divergence_tier": "extreme",
        "edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
        "edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
        "fair_confidence": "medium",
        "fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
        "fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
        "forecast_assessment": {
          "favourite_class": "Favourite",
          "favourite_label": "HJK Helsinki",
          "forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
          "headline": "Clear favourite",
          "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
          "market_prob_pct": 37.4,
          "model_prob_pct": 60.8,
          "outcome_separation_tier": "high",
          "paragraphs": [],
          "reliability_headline": "Use caution",
          "reliability_icon": "!",
          "reliability_tier": "caution",
          "summary": "Model and market lean the same side on HJK Helsinki, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
          "tier": "favourite",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Warning"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
          "note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "forecast_certainty_label": "High",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 23.43,
        "hero_label": "HJK Helsinki",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "Inter Turku odds shortened \u2193 -0.8%.",
        "market_agreement": "weak",
        "market_agreement_label": "Weak",
        "market_interpretation": {},
        "market_narrative": {},
        "max_gap_pp": 23.43,
        "model_validation": {
          "score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
          "status": "warning"
        },
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "outcome_separation": {
          "breakdown": [
            "Favourite exceeds second outcome by 41.1 pp (at 60.8%)."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 41.1,
          "max_prob_pct": 60.8,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "high",
          "tier_label": "High"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "High",
        "rows": [
          {
            "edge_pp": 23.43,
            "fair_prob_pct": 60.82,
            "is_hero": true,
            "label": "HJK Helsinki",
            "market_prob_pct": 37.39,
            "side": "home"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -7.76,
            "fair_prob_pct": 19.75,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 27.51,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -15.66,
            "fair_prob_pct": 19.43,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Inter Turku",
            "market_prob_pct": 35.09,
            "side": "away"
          }
        ],
        "status": "strong_disagreement",
        "status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
        "steam_note": "",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers HJK Helsinki (37.4%).",
          "Inter Turku has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -0.8%, 10/13).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 HJK Helsinki, Market \u2192 HJK Helsinki, Recent sharp money \u2192 Inter Turku.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
        "show": true,
        "title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
      },
      "lifecycle": {
        "closing_implied_pct": 38.61,
        "closing_odds": 2.59,
        "clv_pending": true,
        "clv_pp": 0.0,
        "clv_status": "pending",
        "context": "match",
        "current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
        "current_stage_detail": "",
        "current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
        "entry_implied_pct": 38.61,
        "entry_odds": 2.59,
        "model_validation_label": "Warning",
        "model_validation_status": "warning",
        "stages": [
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "forecast_generated",
            "label": "Prediction Generated",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "market_detected",
            "label": "Market Compared",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "model_validated",
            "label": "Validation Passed",
            "status": "active"
          },
          {
            "detail": "PRE1",
            "id": "closing_recorded",
            "label": "Closing Recorded",
            "status": "done"
          },
          {
            "detail": "",
            "id": "clv_evaluated",
            "label": "CLV Evaluated",
            "status": "pending"
          }
        ]
      },
      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "books_reacting": 10,
        "books_total": 13,
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
        "clv_status": "evaluated",
        "current_odds": 2.6,
        "move_context": "Highest consensus move",
        "move_display": "\u2193 -0.8%",
        "move_pct_abs": 0.8,
        "move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
        "move_speed_label": "Stable line",
        "narrative_paragraphs": [
          "Net move flat on Inter Turku (0.8%), but intraday swing reached 5.3% \u2014 price repriced then reverted.",
          "Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
        ],
        "narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
        "odds_path": {
          "display": "3.00 \u2192 2.50 \u2192 2.60",
          "move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
          "move_speed_label": "Stable line",
          "pick_team": "Inter Turku",
          "points": [
            {
              "label_key": "open",
              "value": "3.00"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "extreme",
              "value": "2.50"
            },
            {
              "label_key": "current",
              "value": "2.60"
            }
          ],
          "sparkline_polyline": "0.0,15.7 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
          "sparkline_trend": "flat",
          "sparkline_trend_label": "Stable"
        },
        "open_odds": 2.62,
        "page_alert_line": "",
        "phase_label": "Volatile",
        "phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
        "pick_team": "Inter Turku",
        "ref_book": "Bet365",
        "seo_title_alert": "",
        "sharp_leader": "Betfair",
        "show": true,
        "signal_badge_class": "warn",
        "signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
        "signal_key": "volatile_market",
        "signal_label": "Volatile market",
        "steam_score": 31,
        "steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
        "steam_tier": "C",
        "title": "Market Move Intelligence"
      },
      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "10/13",
        "current_odds": 2.6,
        "move_display": "\u2193 -0.8%",
        "open_odds": 2.62,
        "pick_team": "Inter Turku",
        "steam_score": 31,
        "steam_team_name": "Inter Turku",
        "steam_tier": "C"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 23.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 1164,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1164.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Inter Turku",
      "country_code": "FI",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
      "country_name": "Finland",
      "fixture_id": 1495704,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Finland",
      "home_team_id": 649,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/649.webp",
      "home_team_name": "HJK Helsinki",
      "league_country": "Finland",
      "league_id": 244,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/244.webp",
      "league_name": "Veikkausliiga",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-17 15:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": "Helsinki",
      "venue_name": "Bolt Arena"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 9.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.344,
            "best_odd": 2.76,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.054,
            "ev": -0.1806,
            "implied_prob": 0.3509,
            "model_prob": 0.1939,
            "p_final": 0.2969
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.265,
            "best_odd": 3.52,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0206,
            "ev": -0.1041,
            "implied_prob": 0.2751,
            "model_prob": 0.1973,
            "p_final": 0.2545
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.2915,
            "best_odd": 2.59,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0685,
            "ev": 0.1458,
            "implied_prob": 0.3739,
            "model_prob": 0.6088,
            "p_final": 0.4424
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.25,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.67,
          "edge_no": -0.1595,
          "edge_yes": 0.1595,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.3857,
          "ev_yes": 0.2141,
          "implied_no": 0.4325,
          "implied_yes": 0.5675,
          "n_bookmakers": 10,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.87,
          "best_under_odd": 2.03,
          "edge_over": 0.2833,
          "edge_under": -0.2833,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.5016,
          "ev_under": -0.6001,
          "implied_over": 0.5197,
          "implied_under": 0.4803,
          "n_bookmakers": 11,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 4.3,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.5016,
      "confidence": 7.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 7.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.727,
          "draw_prob": 0.1973,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.6088,
          "over_prob": 0.803,
          "total_xg": 4.3,
          "under_prob": 0.197,
          "xg_diff": 1.42
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.0685,
          "ev": 0.1458,
          "implied_prob": 0.3739,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.6088,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "HJK Helsinki"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1595,
          "ev": 0.2141,
          "implied_prob": 0.5675,
          "model_prob": 0.727,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.2833,
          "ev": 0.5016,
          "implied_prob": 0.5197,
          "model_prob": 0.803,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1495704,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.5016,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.1939,
        "draw": 0.1973,
        "home": 0.6088
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2141,
        "implied_prob": 0.5675,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.727,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.2141,
          "implied_prob": 0.5675,
          "market": "btts",
          "model_prob": 0.727,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "yes",
          "slot": "secondary"
        },
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.1458,
          "implied_prob": 0.3739,
          "market": "1x2",
          "model_prob": 0.6088,
          "not_dominant": false,
          "risk_band": "strong",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "HJK Helsinki",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Inter Turku",
        "home": "HJK Helsinki"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.402785,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.5016,
        "implied_prob": 0.5197,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.803,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 3
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1495704,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T14:59:05.254959+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

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Veikkausliiga VeikkausliigaClasificación
# EQUIPO PJ G E P Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 42
3 HJK Helsinki 22 11 4 7 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 32
8 Turku PS 22 8 7 7 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 19
11 FF Jaro 22 3 6 13 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 14
# EQUIPO PJ GF GC +/- Pts
1 KuPS 22 38 23 +15 43
2 HJK Helsinki 22 36 27 +9 37
3 Gnistan 22 36 29 +7 36
4 Ilves 22 34 37 -3 25
5 Inter Turku 22 29 16 +13 42
6 VPS 22 29 22 +7 33
7 Turku PS 22 28 23 +5 31
8 Lahti 22 26 19 +7 32
9 AC Oulu 22 25 25 0 34
10 SJK 22 25 33 -8 19
11 FF Jaro 22 18 44 -26 15
12 Mariehamn 22 17 43 -26 14
# EQUIPO PJ xG xGC +/- Pts
1 Ilves 22 4.2 1.7 +2.5 25
2 AC Oulu 22 2.7 2.2 +0.5 34
3 HJK Helsinki 22 2.0 1.6 +0.4 37
4 KuPS 22 2.3 2.0 +0.3 43
5 SJK 22 2.5 2.4 +0.1 19
6 Lahti 22 2.4 2.5 -0.1 32
7 VPS 22 2.0 2.3 -0.3 33
8 Mariehamn 22 2.2 2.7 -0.5 14
9 Turku PS 22 0.9 1.6 -0.7 31
10 FF Jaro 22 2.4 4.6 -2.2 15
11 Inter Turku 22 42
12 Gnistan 22 36