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Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the model’s highlighted side (or lean) to what happened at full time.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Más / Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Rosengård W Dibujar ✖ Incorrect
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-1, 1-1, 3-1, 2-2, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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{
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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{
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{
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},
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{
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{
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{
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"market_intelligence": {
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"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
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"model_prob_pct": 54.6,
"model_team": "Roseng\u00e5rd W",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
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{
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{
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{
"edge_pp": -2.66,
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},
{
"edge_pp": 17.64,
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{
"edge_pp": -17.64,
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{
"edge_pp": 12.97,
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{
"edge_pp": -12.97,
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}
],
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"market_prob_pct": 49.15,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
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"degraded_note": "",
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"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
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"favourite_label": "Roseng\u00e5rd W",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 49.1,
"model_prob_pct": 54.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both identify Roseng\u00e5rd W as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
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"has_market_probs": true,
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"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Roseng\u00e5rd W.",
"note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Roseng\u00e5rd W.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Roseng\u00e5rd W."
],
"quiet_market": true,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Roseng\u00e5rd W.",
"No meaningful directional movement has emerged, and pricing remains stable across tracked sportsbooks."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 5.44,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
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"breakdown": [
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],
"lead_gap_pp": 31.0,
"max_prob_pct": 54.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
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{
"edge_pp": 5.44,
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"is_hero": true,
"label": "Roseng\u00e5rd W",
"market_prob_pct": 49.15,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.78,
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"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.58,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.66,
"fair_prob_pct": 23.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Norrk\u00f6ping W",
"market_prob_pct": 26.27,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Roseng\u00e5rd W.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Roseng\u00e5rd W (49.1%).",
"The model and market both identify Roseng\u00e5rd W as the likely winner. Current divergence remains within normal bounds."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.76,
"closing_odds": 1.86,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.76,
"entry_odds": 1.86,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"current_odds": 1.85,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 1.85,
"pick_team": "Roseng\u00e5rd W",
"steam_score": 15,
"steam_team_name": "Roseng\u00e5rd W",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 16008,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/16008.webp",
"away_team_name": "Norrk\u00f6ping W",
"country_code": "SE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/se.svg",
"country_name": "Sweden",
"fixture_id": 1495492,
"goals_away": 1,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Sweden",
"home_team_id": 11075,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/11075.webp",
"home_team_name": "Roseng\u00e5rd W",
"league_country": "Sweden",
"league_id": 549,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/549.webp",
"league_name": "Damallsvenskan",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-13 11:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Halftime",
"status_short": "HT",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Malmo IP"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 3.48,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0076,
"ev": -0.1123,
"implied_prob": 0.2627,
"model_prob": 0.2362,
"p_final": 0.2551
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2874,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0081,
"ev": -0.1158,
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"p_final": 0.2377
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
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},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.58,
"edge_no": -0.1297,
"edge_yes": 0.1297,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.3675,
"ev_yes": 0.1455,
"implied_no": 0.4047,
"implied_yes": 0.5953,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"edge_over": 0.1764,
"edge_under": -0.1764,
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_under": -0.451,
"implied_over": 0.5796,
"implied_under": 0.4204,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.96,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2247,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.725,
"draw_prob": 0.2177,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5461,
"over_prob": 0.756,
"total_xg": 3.96,
"under_prob": 0.244,
"xg_diff": 0.88
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.03,
"ev": -0.0299,
"implied_prob": 0.4915,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5461,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Roseng\u00e5rd W"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1297,
"ev": 0.1455,
"implied_prob": 0.5953,
"model_prob": 0.725,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1764,
"ev": 0.2247,
"implied_prob": 0.5796,
"model_prob": 0.756,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1495492,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2247,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2362,
"draw": 0.2177,
"home": 0.5461
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1455,
"implied_prob": 0.5953,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.725,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1455,
"implied_prob": 0.5953,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.725,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Norrk\u00f6ping W",
"home": "Roseng\u00e5rd W"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.212342,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2247,
"implied_prob": 0.5796,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.756,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1495492,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-13T12:57:29.342334+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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