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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 One Knoxville Richmond Kickers ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Richmond Kickers win · Richmond Kickers 3–2 One Knoxville
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "aa5ec2297d09b4a975cd10eb8150fbe837f3c3b945dee8c227c1379c0f48c26b",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.42,
"away_win_prob": 0.4091,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.459,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.542,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.294,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.44,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.4,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 3.37,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.18,
"home_win_prob": 0.2969,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or One Knoxville",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "One Knoxville"
},
"away_xg": 1.42,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "One Knoxville",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1291,
"edge_gap": 0.113,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5387,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.0,
"draw": 29.4,
"home": 29.7
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.7
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.7,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "One Knoxville Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.86,
"market_odds": 1.7,
"model_odds": 2.44,
"overround": 9.2,
"prob_edge": -17.8,
"value_pct": -30.3,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 7,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 27,
"away_score_rate": 75.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 9,
"home_played": 26,
"home_score_rate": 69.3,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 54.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.42,
"home_expected": 1.18,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Richmond Kickers or Draw",
"prob": 59.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Richmond Kickers or One Knoxville",
"prob": 70.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or One Knoxville",
"prob": 70.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Richmond Kickers or One Knoxville",
"pick_prob": 70.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 40.9,
"draw_pct": 29.4,
"home_pct": 29.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "One Knoxville"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 22.4,
"implied_prob": 24.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Richmond Kickers Win",
"model_prob": 29.7,
"odds": 4.12
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 1.5,
"ev": 0.1346,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 9.15,
"market_prob": 0.1093,
"market_prob_pct": 10.9,
"model_prob": 0.124,
"model_prob_pct": 12.4,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.5
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.18,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"p_final": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1137,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0445,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4444
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1999,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -20.0,
"text": "-20.0%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.6,
"text": "+16.6%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1655,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10298.95,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0076,
"edge_pp": 0.8,
"market_prob": 0.4232,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0781,
"implied_prob": 0.4232,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4308
},
"p_final": 0.4308,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0177,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0781,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.5768,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5684
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.004,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.4,
"text": "-0.4%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1344,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.4,
"text": "-13.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.004,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no_prob": 45.9,
"sort_key": 4049.44,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.1
},
{
"authority_action": "lean",
"authority_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1905,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -19.1,
"text": "-19.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0265,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.6,
"text": "-2.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3037,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "One Knoxville",
"sort_key": 1793.375,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.2,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.4
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "One Knoxville",
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"model_team": "One Knoxville",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2217,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 65,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates One Knoxville at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies One Knoxville as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "One Knoxville",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side One Knoxville \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1494022 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1905,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3037,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"bet_status": "lean",
"books_breadth_display": "6/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Market has already priced much of the edge",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 62,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.42,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.18,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.42,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.18 \u00b7 Away xG 1.42 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +5%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Richmond Kickers",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"authority": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2217,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 65,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates One Knoxville at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies One Knoxville as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "One Knoxville",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side One Knoxville \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1494022 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1905,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3037,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"tier": "lean"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Richmond Kickers 1.18 xG vs One Knoxville 1.42 \u2192 One Knoxville 40.9%",
"Market Steam: Richmond Kickers +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean One Knoxville with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.69,
"label": "Richmond Kickers",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.4,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 40.91,
"label": "One Knoxville",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.99,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.19,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.99,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.81,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.35,
"fair_prob": 54.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.45,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.35,
"fair_prob": 45.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.55,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "One Knoxville",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "No clear directional signal",
"positive": null
},
"market_prob_pct": 53.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -13.0,
"model_prob_pct": 40.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-13.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -13.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 62,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The model and market both lean One Knoxville, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Richmond Kickers remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 65,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 40,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "lean",
"label": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Richmond Kickers 1.18 xG vs One Knoxville 1.42 \u2192 One Knoxville 40.9%",
"Market Steam: Richmond Kickers +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean One Knoxville with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 11.2 pp (at 40.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 11.2,
"max_prob_pct": 40.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Richmond Kickers",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.4,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 40.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "One Knoxville",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans One Knoxville (40.9%).",
"The model and market both lean One Knoxville, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Richmond Kickers remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.0,
"entry_odds": 4.0,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/8",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 4.0,
"pick_team": "Richmond Kickers",
"steam_score": 24,
"steam_team_name": "Richmond Kickers",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "one-knoxville",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "One Knoxville",
"away_team_id": 18905,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/18905.webp",
"away_team_name": "One Knoxville",
"away_team_public_id": "2itrhiXLt5Fi1P",
"away_team_slug": "one-knoxville",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1494022,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Richmond Kickers",
"home_team_id": 4024,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/4024.webp",
"home_team_name": "Richmond Kickers",
"home_team_public_id": "5oHL3LXUwZlEF3",
"home_team_slug": "richmond-kickers",
"ht.home_team_slug": "richmond-kickers",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "USL League One",
"league_id": 489,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/489.webp",
"league_name": "USL League One",
"league_public_id": "4MBWLKxzdtvygS",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-03 22:00:00",
"public_id": "1PSh5c8JvKh4Sd",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "City Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4838,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0625,
"ev": -0.1905,
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5387,
"draw": 0.2391,
"home": 0.2223
},
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"p_final": 0.4762
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2753,
"best_odd": 3.83,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0151,
"ev": -0.0265,
"implied_prob": 0.2391,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5387,
"draw": 0.2391,
"home": 0.2223
},
"model_prob": 0.2939,
"p_final": 0.2542
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1777,
"best_odd": 4.12,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0132,
"ev": -0.0299,
"implied_prob": 0.2223,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5387,
"draw": 0.2391,
"home": 0.2223
},
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2355
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.1787,
"ev": -0.3038,
"implied_prob": 0.5882,
"model_prob": 0.4096
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.83,
"edge": 0.0328,
"ev": 0.1257,
"implied_prob": 0.2611,
"model_prob": 0.2939
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.12,
"edge": 0.0538,
"ev": 0.2217,
"implied_prob": 0.2427,
"model_prob": 0.2965
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.2129,
"alpha_yes": 0.2342,
"best_no_odd": 2.17,
"best_yes_odd": 1.6,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0335,
"edge_yes": -0.0335,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.004,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0781,
"ev_yes": -0.1344,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1076,
"implied_no": 0.4255,
"implied_yes": 0.5745,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0781,
"implied_prob": 0.4232,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4308
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.5768,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5684
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"p_final_no": 0.4308,
"p_final_yes": 0.5684,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.2136,
"alpha_under": 0.1942,
"best_over_odd": 1.66,
"best_under_odd": 2.25,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.6,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0899,
"edge_under": 0.0899,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1999,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1139,
"ev_under": 0.1655,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0445,
"implied_over": 0.5719,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5733,
"implied_under": 0.4281,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4267,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4444
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5538,
"p_final_under": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2217,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1655,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.1
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "lean",
"final_decision": {
"action": "lean",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "neutral",
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"key": "neutral",
"label": "Neutral",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 12.9,
"summary": "Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet."
},
"alignment_key": "neutral",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1655,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2217,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.1,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 65,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates One Knoxville at 41.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 53.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies One Knoxville as the value side (41.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "No decisive market conflict on direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 12.9,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Selective Lean - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2192",
"label": "Lean only \u2014 not a default Primary",
"market_signal": "No decisive market alignment yet",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "One Knoxville",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": null,
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side One Knoxville \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.36 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1494022 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.36 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 6.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "62 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "65 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "neutral"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 7,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Neither side shows a decisive model\u2013market alignment yet.",
"Decision strength: 6.1/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 62,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Selective consensus value may exist \u2014 below default Primary sizing bar.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "lean",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1905,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3037,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 5.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.24
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.541,
"draw_prob": 0.2939,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4096,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.24
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0625,
"ev": -0.1905,
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "One Knoxville"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0076,
"market_prob": 0.4232,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.459,
"n_bookmakers": 5,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.2129,
"best_odd": 2.14,
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": -0.0781,
"implied_prob": 0.4232,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"p_final": 0.4308
},
"p_final": 0.4308,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0781,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2342,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.1076,
"implied_prob": 0.5768,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.5684
}
},
"edge": 0.0335,
"ev": -0.004,
"implied_prob": 0.4255,
"model_prob": 0.459,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.2136,
"best_odd": 1.6,
"edge": -0.0195,
"ev": -0.1139,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.5538
},
"p_final": 0.4444,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0445,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1942,
"best_odd": 2.15,
"edge": 0.0177,
"ev": -0.0445,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.4444
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0899,
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1494022,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1655,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4096,
"draw": 0.2939,
"home": 0.2965
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "One Knoxville",
"home": "Richmond Kickers"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.06001,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1655,
"implied_prob": 0.4281,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1905,
"consensus_ev_display": "-19.1%",
"consensus_odds": 1.7,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5387,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4096,
"raw_edge_display": "-12.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -12.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5882352941176471,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3037,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-30.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1494022,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-03T21:29:48.340311+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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USL League One — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 60 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 52 |
| 4 | Boise | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 49 |
| 5 | One Knoxville | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 48 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 47 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 29 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 46 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 39 |
| 9 | Corpus Christi | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 10 | Naples | 28 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 34 |
| 11 | Westchester SC | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 33 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 13 | Alta | 29 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 32 |
| 14 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 31 |
| 15 | NY Cosmos | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 25 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 |
| 18 | Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 29 | 67 | 42 | +25 | 60 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 29 | 53 | 31 | +22 | 61 |
| 3 | Forward Madison | 29 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 52 |
| 4 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 29 | 50 | 40 | +10 | 46 |
| 5 | Westchester SC | 29 | 48 | 46 | +2 | 33 |
| 6 | One Knoxville | 29 | 46 | 34 | +12 | 48 |
| 7 | Boise | 29 | 45 | 39 | +6 | 49 |
| 8 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 29 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 31 |
| 9 | Fort Wayne | 28 | 42 | 36 | +6 | 39 |
| 10 | Spokane Velocity | 27 | 41 | 36 | +5 | 47 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 28 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 33 |
| 12 | NY Cosmos | 28 | 36 | 56 | -20 | 25 |
| 13 | Alta | 29 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 32 |
| 14 | Corpus Christi | 28 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 36 |
| 15 | Naples | 28 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 34 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph | 28 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 23 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 28 | 30 | 58 | -28 | 23 |
| 18 | Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
