Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (3 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Gimnasia La Plata Gimnasia La Plata ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Gimnasia La Plata win · Huracán 1–2 Gimnasia La Plata
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "12aa88d2f029fd34751018f7166a6e065f7d41da395af3b14daafa404f60b629",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.46,
"away_win_prob": 0.5416,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.602,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.398,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2974,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 1.85,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.36,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 6.21,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.69,
"home_win_prob": 0.161,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.364,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.636
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Hurac\u00e1n or draw",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Gimnasia La Plata",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "45%",
"winner_name": "Hurac\u00e1n"
},
"away_xg": 1.46,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"confidence": 54.1,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "medium",
"display_text": "Winner : Gimnasia La Plata",
"edge": 0.2247,
"edge_gap": 0.2431,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3163,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 54.1,
"draw": 29.8,
"home": 16.1
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "away",
"selection_name": "Gimnasia La Plata"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 3.1
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.09
},
{
"affi_link": "https://reffpa.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1260c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1260",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"odd": 3.06
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"odd": 3.0
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"odd": 3.0
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"odd": 2.9
},
{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"odd": 2.9
},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"odd": 2.88
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.1,
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"display_market": "Gimnasia La Plata Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 3.16,
"market_odds": 2.96,
"model_odds": 1.85,
"overround": 6.8,
"prob_edge": 21.8,
"value_pct": 67.6,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 7,
"away_played": 30,
"away_score_rate": 76.8,
"home_clean_sheet": 12,
"home_failed_to_score": 10,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 49.8,
"no_prob": 60.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 60.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 39.8
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.46,
"home_expected": 0.69,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 17.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Hurac\u00e1n or Draw",
"prob": 45.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Hurac\u00e1n or Gimnasia La Plata",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Gimnasia La Plata",
"prob": 83.9
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Gimnasia La Plata",
"pick_prob": 83.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 54.2,
"draw_pct": 29.7,
"home_pct": 16.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Gimnasia La Plata"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.15,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 36.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 63.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.15,
"under_prob": 63.6
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"edge": 68.0,
"implied_prob": 32.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Gimnasia La Plata Win",
"model_prob": 54.2,
"odds": 3.1
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": {
"best_bookmaker": "William Hill",
"best_odds": 15.0,
"edge": 5.7,
"ev": 86.2,
"label": "0-2",
"probability": 12.4
},
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 3.8,
"ev": 0.292,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 7.6,
"market_prob": 0.1316,
"market_prob_pct": 13.2,
"model_prob": 0.17,
"model_prob_pct": 17.0,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 17.0
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 17.0
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 12.4
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 11.6
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.69,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 3.12,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Away Gimnasia La Plata",
"edge": 22.0,
"ev": 68.6,
"probability": 54.1
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1354,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.5,
"text": "+13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1354,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.5,
"text": "+13.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.541,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.3,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.596,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+59.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"sort_key": 10271.86,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.515,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0371,
"edge_pp": 3.7,
"market_prob": 0.5299,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.602,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.515,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0371,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"p_final": 0.567
},
"p_final": 0.567,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0415,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.019,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4682,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0338,
"ev": -0.1491,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.398,
"p_final": 0.4363
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0716,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.2,
"text": "+7.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1841,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -18.4,
"text": "-18.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0716,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no_prob": 60.2,
"sort_key": 10064.44,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 39.8
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5574,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0129,
"edge_pp": 1.3,
"market_prob": 0.6128,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.636,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4054,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.0971,
"implied_prob": 0.3872,
"model_prob": 0.364,
"p_final": 0.3778
},
"p_final": 0.6257,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.3,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0396,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0551,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5574,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0551,
"implied_prob": 0.6128,
"model_prob": 0.636,
"p_final": 0.6257
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0354,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"ev_under": 0.0049,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.5,
"text": "+0.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0049,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over_prob": 36.4,
"sort_key": 5203.92,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 63.6,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 831.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 17.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/10",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/10 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"alert_team": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 0.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"market_team": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"model_prob_pct": 54.2,
"model_team": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 22.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Gimnasia La Plata), but pricing still diverges by 22.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 22.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Gimnasia La Plata), but pricing still diverges by 22.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1354,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.677,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia La Plata at 54.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia La Plata as the value side (54.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Gimnasia La Plata \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493190 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Gimnasia La Plata), but pricing still diverges by 22.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 8.1/10",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1354,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3389830508474576,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.596,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+59.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.77"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.77
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "9/10",
"breadth_ratio": 0.9,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation pending",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pending",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 25.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 9.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 8.0
},
"score": 69,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 0.0,
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.46,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.69,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.46,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.69 \u00b7 Away xG 1.46 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +8%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pending",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"steam_team": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Gimnasia La Plata), but pricing still diverges by 22.3 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 22.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Gimnasia La Plata), but pricing still diverges by 22.3 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 22.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Gimnasia La Plata), but pricing still diverges by 22.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1354,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.677,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia La Plata at 54.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia La Plata as the value side (54.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Gimnasia La Plata \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493190 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Gimnasia La Plata), but pricing still diverges by 22.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 8.1/10",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1354,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3389830508474576,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.596,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+59.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.77"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.77
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hurac\u00e1n 0.69 xG vs Gimnasia La Plata 1.46 \u2192 Gimnasia La Plata 54.2%",
"Market Steam: Gimnasia La Plata \u2193 -10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Gimnasia La Plata projects stronger on expected goals (+0.77 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 16.1,
"label": "Hurac\u00e1n",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 29.74,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.16,
"label": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.17,
"fair_prob": 36.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 38.57,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.17,
"fair_prob": 63.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 61.43,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.86,
"fair_prob": 39.8,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 46.66,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.86,
"fair_prob": 60.2,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 53.34,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"comparison_available": false,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "unknown",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "",
"edge_label_key": "",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 31.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+22.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 22.4,
"model_prob_pct": 54.2,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+22.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 22.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 69,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Gimnasia La Plata \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+22.4 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pending",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 72,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Hurac\u00e1n 0.69 xG vs Gimnasia La Plata 1.46 \u2192 Gimnasia La Plata 54.2%",
"Market Steam: Gimnasia La Plata \u2193 -10.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Gimnasia La Plata projects stronger on expected goals (+0.77 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": false,
"hero_edge_pp": null,
"hero_label": "",
"hero_side": null,
"market_activity": "Gimnasia La Plata odds shortened \u2193 -10.0%.",
"market_agreement": "unknown",
"market_agreement_label": "\u2014",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pending",
"status": "pending"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 24.4 pp (at 54.2%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 24.4,
"max_prob_pct": 54.2,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "",
"largest_gap_pp": null,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 0.0,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 16.1,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Hurac\u00e1n",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.74,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
},
{
"difference_pp": null,
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob_pct": 54.16,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"market_prob_pct": null,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "",
"signal_label": ""
}
],
"status": "unknown",
"status_label": "\u2014",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical model leans Gimnasia La Plata (54.2%).",
"However, Gimnasia La Plata has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -10.0%, 9/10).",
"Gimnasia La Plata \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"closing_reason": "Expected before kickoff",
"closing_status": "waiting",
"closing_status_label": "Waiting",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.72,
"entry_odds": 2.88,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pending",
"model_validation_status": "pending",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -11.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -11.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": -3.3
}
],
"books_total": 10,
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"clv_label": "Waiting for Close",
"clv_status": "waiting",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 10.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 56m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Gimnasia La Plata (10.0%, 9/10) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharper sportsbooks initiated a solid move with growing cross-book confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -10.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.20",
"3.04",
"2.88"
],
"display": "3.50 \u2192 2.78 \u2192 2.88",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 56m",
"pick_team": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.78"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.2,
2.88
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.20"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.88"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.2,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Gimnasia La Plata \u2193 -10.0% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Gimnasia La Plata \u2193 -10.0% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.88,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/10",
"current_odds": 2.88,
"move_display": "\u2193 -10.0%",
"open_odds": 3.2,
"pick_team": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"steam_score": 65,
"steam_team_name": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "gimnasia-l-p",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"away_team_id": 434,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/434.webp",
"away_team_name": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"away_team_public_id": "4GybE6jYbWP43V",
"away_team_slug": "gimnasia-l-p",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493190,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Hurac\u00e1n",
"home_team_id": 445,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/445.webp",
"home_team_name": "Hurac\u00e1n",
"home_team_public_id": "0x1jZckjlPAjeF",
"home_team_slug": "huracan",
"ht.home_team_slug": "huracan",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_public_id": "3OCeIb3vl8JGVi",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-15 23:00:00",
"public_id": "0ACcFuUQJGC9I8",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Estadio Tomas Adolfo Duco"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2996,
"best_odd": 2.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0668,
"ev": 0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3181,
"draw": 0.3203,
"home": 0.3616
},
"model_prob": 0.541,
"p_final": 0.3849
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4349,
"best_odd": 2.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0097,
"ev": -0.0902,
"implied_prob": 0.3203,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3181,
"draw": 0.3203,
"home": 0.3616
},
"model_prob": 0.2979,
"p_final": 0.3105
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3147,
"best_odd": 2.595,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0631,
"ev": -0.2253,
"implied_prob": 0.3616,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3181,
"draw": 0.3203,
"home": 0.3616
},
"model_prob": 0.1612,
"p_final": 0.2985
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": 0.2184,
"ev": 0.677,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.541
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.1,
"edge": -0.0247,
"ev": -0.0766,
"implied_prob": 0.3226,
"model_prob": 0.2979
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.75,
"edge": -0.2025,
"ev": -0.5568,
"implied_prob": 0.3636,
"model_prob": 0.1612
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.515,
"alpha_yes": 0.4682,
"best_no_odd": 1.78,
"best_yes_odd": 2.05,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0686,
"edge_yes": -0.0686,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0716,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.019,
"ev_yes": -0.1841,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1491,
"implied_no": 0.5334,
"implied_yes": 0.4666,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.515,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0371,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"p_final": 0.567
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4682,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0338,
"ev": -0.1491,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.398,
"p_final": 0.4363
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"p_final_no": 0.567,
"p_final_yes": 0.4363,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4054,
"alpha_under": 0.5574,
"best_over_odd": 2.65,
"best_under_odd": 1.58,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.39,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.51,
"edge_over": -0.0217,
"edge_under": 0.0217,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.0354,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0971,
"ev_under": 0.0049,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0551,
"implied_over": 0.3857,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3872,
"implied_under": 0.6143,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6128,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4054,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.0971,
"implied_prob": 0.3872,
"model_prob": 0.364,
"p_final": 0.3778
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5574,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0551,
"implied_prob": 0.6128,
"model_prob": 0.636,
"p_final": 0.6257
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3778,
"p_final_under": 0.6257,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.15,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1354,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.677,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1354,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 22.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.3,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Gimnasia La Plata), but pricing still diverges by 22.3 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1354,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.677,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 72,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Gimnasia La Plata at 54.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 31.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Gimnasia La Plata as the value side (54.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Gimnasia La Plata \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.10 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +68% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493190 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.10 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "69 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "72 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Gimnasia La Plata), but pricing still diverges by 22.3 pp.",
"Decision strength: 8.1/10",
"Outlier price +68% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 69,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1354,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3389830508474576,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.596,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+59.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 8.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.77"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.77
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.398,
"draw_prob": 0.2979,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.541,
"over_prob": 0.364,
"total_xg": 2.15,
"under_prob": 0.636,
"xg_diff": 0.77
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0668,
"ev": 0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Gimnasia La Plata"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.515,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0371,
"market_prob": 0.5299,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.602,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.515,
"best_odd": 1.73,
"edge": 0.0371,
"ev": -0.019,
"implied_prob": 0.5299,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"p_final": 0.567
},
"p_final": 0.567,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.019,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.4682,
"best_odd": 1.95,
"edge": -0.0338,
"ev": -0.1491,
"implied_prob": 0.4701,
"model_prob": 0.398,
"p_final": 0.4363
}
},
"edge": 0.0686,
"ev": 0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.5334,
"model_prob": 0.602,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5574,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0129,
"market_prob": 0.6128,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.636,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4054,
"best_odd": 2.39,
"edge": -0.0094,
"ev": -0.0971,
"implied_prob": 0.3872,
"model_prob": 0.364,
"p_final": 0.3778
},
"p_final": 0.6257,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0551,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5574,
"best_odd": 1.51,
"edge": 0.0129,
"ev": -0.0551,
"implied_prob": 0.6128,
"model_prob": 0.636,
"p_final": 0.6257
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0217,
"ev": 0.0049,
"implied_prob": 0.6143,
"model_prob": 0.636,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493190,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1354,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.541,
"draw": 0.2979,
"home": 0.1612
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.5334,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.602,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0716,
"implied_prob": 0.5334,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.602,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"home": "Hurac\u00e1n"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.073251,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1354,
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.541,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Gimnasia La Plata",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1354,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.95,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3181,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.541,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3389830508474576,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.596,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+59.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493190,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-15T19:29:43.946602+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Huracán & Gimnasia La Plata!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Liga Profesional Argentina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto | 16 | 14.9 | 6.7 | +8.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Lanús | 16 | 14.5 | 10.2 | +4.3 | 24 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 10.9 | 6.7 | +4.2 | 30 |
| 4 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 11.5 | 8.3 | +3.2 | 21 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 14.0 | 10.9 | +3.1 | 19 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 11.1 | 8.6 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 14.6 | 12.8 | +1.8 | 31 |
| 8 | Independiente | 16 | 8.9 | 9.4 | -0.5 | 24 |
| 9 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 7.5 | 8.7 | -1.2 | 15 |
| 10 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 9.0 | 11.0 | -2.0 | 19 |
| 11 | Platense | 16 | 7.9 | 10.6 | -2.7 | 16 |
| 12 | Talleres | 16 | 10.8 | 13.8 | -3.0 | 26 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 12.4 | 15.6 | -3.2 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 6.3 | 10.1 | -3.8 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.7 | 11.8 | -5.1 | 28 |
