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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (2 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Sarmiento de Junín Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.36
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Sarmiento de Junín 1–1 Belgrano
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "de7743c4d035522e733e3416e086c784f1d6dc6284ff0a6ceed0f8cfbcd21fbf",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.3035,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.3163,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.02,
"away_win_prob": 0.3035,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.3035,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.513,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.487,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3163,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.3163,
"fair_odds_away": 3.29,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 3.29,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.16,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 3.16,
"fair_odds_home": 2.63,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 2.63,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.33,
"home_win_prob": 0.3801,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.3801,
"over_25_prob": 0.417,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.583
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Belgrano",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Belgrano"
},
"away_xg": 1.02,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0921,
"edge_gap": 0.0637,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2879,
"model_prob": 0.38,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 30.4,
"draw": 31.6,
"home": 38.0
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 3.36
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.36,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 3.47,
"market_odds": 3.36,
"model_odds": 2.63,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 8.3,
"value_pct": 27.8,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 14,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 28,
"away_score_rate": 63.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 8,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 24,
"home_score_rate": 73.6,
"no_prob": 51.3,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 51.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 48.7
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.02,
"home_expected": 1.33,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn or Draw",
"prob": 69.6
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn or Belgrano",
"prob": 68.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Belgrano",
"prob": 61.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn or Draw",
"pick_prob": 69.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.3,
"draw_pct": 31.6,
"home_pct": 38.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.35,
"away_avg_scored": 1.2,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.2,
"over_prob": 41.7,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.35,
"under_prob": 58.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 27.8,
"implied_prob": 29.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn Win",
"model_prob": 38.0,
"odds": 3.36
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Belgrano",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 38.85,
"draw": 32.36,
"home": 28.79
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:44:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-13 17:14:24",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 28.79,
"gap_pp": 9.21,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 38.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.36,
"gap_pp": -0.73,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.63
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.85,
"gap_pp": -8.48,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.38
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.95,
"gap_pp": 5.75,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 41.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.05,
"gap_pp": -5.75,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 58.3
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.36,
"early": 3.36,
"implied_closing_pct": 28.79,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 28.79,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.99,
"early": 2.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.36,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.36,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.49,
"early": 2.49,
"implied_closing_pct": 38.85,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 38.85,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.69,
"early": 2.69,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.95,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.95,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.51,
"early": 1.51,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.05,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.8,
"ev": -0.226,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.0,
"market_prob": 0.1667,
"market_prob_pct": 16.7,
"model_prob": 0.129,
"model_prob_pct": 12.9,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.9
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.33,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Unibet",
"best_odds": 3.45,
"confidence": "no_clear_edge",
"display_label": "Home Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"edge": 9.0,
"ev": 45.0,
"probability": 38.0
},
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4096,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0194,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
"market_prob": 0.3696,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.417,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4096,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.3696,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"p_final": 0.389
},
"p_final": 0.389,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 4.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0633,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.008,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5633,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.6304,
"model_prob": 0.583,
"p_final": 0.6037
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1217,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.2,
"text": "+12.2%"
},
"ev_under": -0.108,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1217,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over_prob": 41.7,
"sort_key": 10259.53,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 58.3,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0474,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2879,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0474,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.7,
"text": "+4.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.38,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2768,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"sort_key": 10042.66,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5244,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.017,
"edge_pp": 1.7,
"market_prob": 0.4545,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.487,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5769,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"model_prob": 0.513,
"p_final": 0.5267
},
"p_final": 0.4716,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 3.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0065,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.038,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5244,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.487,
"p_final": 0.4716
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1022,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0324,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 3.2,
"text": "+3.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0324,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no_prob": 51.3,
"sort_key": 10029.16,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 48.7
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 818.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"alert_team": "Belgrano",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.22,
"hero_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"market_prob_pct": 28.8,
"market_team": "Belgrano",
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"model_team": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 8,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1217,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2768,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493134 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0474,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2879,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.38,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2768,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.23076923076923078,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.22,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.22,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.02,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.33,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.33,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.33 \u00b7 Away xG 1.02 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"steam_team": "Belgrano",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1217,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2768,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493134 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0474,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2879,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.38,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2768,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn 1.33 xG vs Belgrano 1.02 \u2192 Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn 38.0%",
"Market: Belgrano ~28.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Belgrano odds \u2191 +2.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.22,
"fair_prob": 38.01,
"label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"market_prob": 28.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.73,
"fair_prob": 31.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.36,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.5,
"fair_prob": 30.35,
"label": "Belgrano",
"market_prob": 38.85,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.61,
"fair_prob": 41.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 37.09,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -4.61,
"fair_prob": 58.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 62.91,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 3.34,
"fair_prob": 48.7,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 45.36,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.34,
"fair_prob": 51.3,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 54.64,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"market_prob_pct": 28.79,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Belgrano"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn\u0027s win probability at 38.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 28.8%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.22,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 28.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.2,
"model_prob_pct": 38.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn 1.33 xG vs Belgrano 1.02 \u2192 Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn 38.0%",
"Market: Belgrano ~28.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Belgrano odds \u2191 +2.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.22,
"hero_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Belgrano odds lengthened \u2191 +2.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Belgrano has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"However, Belgrano has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.1%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn.",
"At the same time, Belgrano has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 2.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.22,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.4 pp (at 38.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.4,
"max_prob_pct": 38.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.2,
"lead": "The model rates Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.22,
"edge_pp": 9.22,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.01,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"market_prob_pct": 28.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.73,
"edge_pp": -0.73,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.36,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -8.5,
"edge_pp": -8.5,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.35,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Belgrano",
"market_prob_pct": 38.85,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Belgrano (28.8%).",
"Belgrano odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +2.1%, 3/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn, Market \u2192 Belgrano, while Belgrano odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 29.76,
"closing_odds": 3.36,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 29.76,
"entry_odds": 3.36,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Belgrano (swing 2.50 \u2192 2.21 \u2192 2.45) \u2014 net 2.1% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.49",
"2.45",
"2.40"
],
"display": "2.50 \u2192 2.21 \u2192 2.45",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2014",
"move_speed_label": "Stable line",
"pick_team": "Belgrano",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.21"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.4,
2.49,
2.45
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,8.0",
"sparkline_trend": "flat",
"sparkline_trend_label": "Stable",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.40"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.49"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.45"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.4,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Belgrano",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.45,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Belgrano",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 8,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"current_odds": 2.45,
"move_display": "\u2191 +2.1%",
"open_odds": 2.4,
"pick_team": "Belgrano",
"steam_score": 8,
"steam_team_name": "Belgrano",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "belgrano-cordoba",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Belgrano",
"away_team_id": 440,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/440.webp",
"away_team_name": "Belgrano",
"away_team_public_id": "4C3JFGEr5iT0Na",
"away_team_slug": "belgrano-cordoba",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493134,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"home_team_id": 474,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/474.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"home_team_public_id": "3Li8y0l8Lj9jy0",
"home_team_slug": "sarmiento-junin",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sarmiento-junin",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_public_id": "3OCeIb3vl8JGVi",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-13 17:45:00",
"public_id": "36hwVgDKjWDliC",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Junin",
"venue_name": "Estadio Eva Peron"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3928,
"best_odd": 2.49,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0333,
"ev": -0.1155,
"implied_prob": 0.3885,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3885,
"draw": 0.3236,
"home": 0.2879
},
"model_prob": 0.3038,
"p_final": 0.3552
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.4451,
"best_odd": 2.99,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0032,
"ev": -0.0423,
"implied_prob": 0.3236,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3885,
"draw": 0.3236,
"home": 0.2879
},
"model_prob": 0.3163,
"p_final": 0.3203
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2586,
"best_odd": 3.36,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": 0.0474,
"implied_prob": 0.2879,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3885,
"draw": 0.3236,
"home": 0.2879
},
"model_prob": 0.38,
"p_final": 0.3117
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.49,
"edge": -0.0978,
"ev": -0.2436,
"implied_prob": 0.4016,
"model_prob": 0.3038
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.99,
"edge": -0.0182,
"ev": -0.0544,
"implied_prob": 0.3344,
"model_prob": 0.3163
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.36,
"edge": 0.0824,
"ev": 0.2768,
"implied_prob": 0.2976,
"model_prob": 0.38
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5769,
"alpha_yes": 0.5244,
"best_no_odd": 1.75,
"best_yes_odd": 2.12,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0334,
"edge_yes": 0.0334,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1022,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1046,
"ev_yes": 0.0324,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.038,
"implied_no": 0.5464,
"implied_yes": 0.4536,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5769,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"model_prob": 0.513,
"p_final": 0.5267
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5244,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.487,
"p_final": 0.4716
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"p_final_no": 0.5267,
"p_final_yes": 0.4716,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4096,
"alpha_under": 0.5633,
"best_over_odd": 2.69,
"best_under_odd": 1.53,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.55,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.495,
"edge_over": 0.0461,
"edge_under": -0.0461,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.1217,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.008,
"ev_under": -0.108,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0975,
"implied_over": 0.3709,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3696,
"implied_under": 0.6291,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6304,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4096,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.3696,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"p_final": 0.389
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5633,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.6304,
"model_prob": 0.583,
"p_final": 0.6037
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.389,
"p_final_under": 0.6037,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.35,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1217,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2768,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1217,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.4,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.4,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1217,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2768,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.4,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn at 38.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 28.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn as the value side (38.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.06 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +28% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493134 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.06 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.2% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.2% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.4/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.2% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.4/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.2% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn).",
"Decision strength: 7.4/10",
"Outlier price +28% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0474,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2879,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.38,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2768,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.5,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.31
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.487,
"draw_prob": 0.3163,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.38,
"over_prob": 0.417,
"total_xg": 2.35,
"under_prob": 0.583,
"xg_diff": 0.31
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0238,
"ev": 0.0474,
"implied_prob": 0.2879,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.38,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5244,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"edge": 0.017,
"market_prob": 0.4545,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.487,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5769,
"best_odd": 1.7,
"edge": -0.0187,
"ev": -0.1046,
"implied_prob": 0.5455,
"model_prob": 0.513,
"p_final": 0.5267
},
"p_final": 0.4716,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.038,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5244,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.038,
"implied_prob": 0.4545,
"model_prob": 0.487,
"p_final": 0.4716
}
},
"edge": 0.0334,
"ev": 0.0324,
"implied_prob": 0.4536,
"model_prob": 0.487,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4096,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0194,
"market_prob": 0.3696,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.417,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4096,
"best_odd": 2.55,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.008,
"implied_prob": 0.3696,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"p_final": 0.389
},
"p_final": 0.389,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.008,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5633,
"best_odd": 1.495,
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.0975,
"implied_prob": 0.6304,
"model_prob": 0.583,
"p_final": 0.6037
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0461,
"ev": 0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.3709,
"model_prob": 0.417,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1493134,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1217,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3038,
"draw": 0.3163,
"home": 0.38
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Belgrano",
"home": "Sarmiento de Jun\u00edn"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031261,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1217,
"implied_prob": 0.3709,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.417,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0474,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.7%",
"consensus_odds": 3.36,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2879,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.38,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2976190476190476,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2768,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+27.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493134,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-13T19:37:15.691278+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Profesional Argentina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto | 16 | 14.2 | 5.0 | +9.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 3 | Lanús | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9.2 | 6.0 | +3.2 | 30 |
| 5 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 9.1 | 6.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
