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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Más de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí Sí ✔ Correcto
- 1X2 Talleres Vélez Sarsfield ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 2-0, 2-1, 1-0, 1-1, 3-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.72
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Vélez Sarsfield win · Talleres 1–3 Vélez Sarsfield
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d999fb639688e576de94673f622eaa90313516a0a2fee62ad529e7810e52ab1e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.0,
"away_win_prob": 0.1455,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.424,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.576,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2139,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 6.87,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.67,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 1.56,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.23,
"home_win_prob": 0.6405,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.626,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.374
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or V\u00e9lez Sarsfield and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Talleres",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "V\u00e9lez Sarsfield"
},
"away_xg": 1.0,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Talleres",
"confidence": 64.1,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Talleres",
"edge": 0.2846,
"edge_gap": 0.4266,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.356,
"model_prob": 0.6406,
"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 14.5,
"draw": 21.4,
"home": 64.1
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Talleres"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.72
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.72,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Talleres Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.81,
"market_odds": 2.72,
"model_odds": 1.56,
"overround": 3.3,
"prob_edge": 27.3,
"value_pct": 74.4,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 18,
"away_score_rate": 63.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 7,
"home_played": 18,
"home_score_rate": 89.2,
"no_prob": 42.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 57.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 57.6
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.0,
"home_expected": 2.23,
"scores": [
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 8.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-0",
"prob": 7.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Talleres or Draw",
"prob": 85.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Talleres or V\u00e9lez Sarsfield",
"prob": 78.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or V\u00e9lez Sarsfield",
"prob": 35.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Talleres or Draw",
"pick_prob": 85.4
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 14.5,
"draw_pct": 21.4,
"home_pct": 64.0,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Talleres"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 3.23,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.9,
"over_prob": 62.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.23,
"under_prob": 37.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 74.4,
"implied_prob": 36.8,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Talleres Win",
"model_prob": 64.1,
"odds": 2.72
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "V\u00e9lez Sarsfield",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 30.55,
"draw": 33.86,
"home": 35.6
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-30 21:59:42",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-30 21:29:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Talleres",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.6,
"gap_pp": 28.46,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 64.06
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.86,
"gap_pp": -12.46,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 21.4
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.55,
"gap_pp": -16.0,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 14.55
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.35,
"gap_pp": 30.25,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 62.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 67.65,
"gap_pp": -30.25,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 37.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.72,
"early": 2.72,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 2.86,
"early": 2.86,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.86,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.86,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 3.17,
"early": 3.17,
"implied_closing_pct": 30.55,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 30.55,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.97,
"early": 2.97,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.35,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.35,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.42,
"early": 1.42,
"implied_closing_pct": 67.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 67.65,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 30.2,
"kind": "ou_o"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.8
}
},
"home_xg": 2.23,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 2.6,
"confidence": "strong",
"display_label": "Home Talleres",
"edge": 25.6,
"ev": 66.7,
"probability": 64.1
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1679,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.8,
"text": "+16.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1679,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 16.8,
"text": "+16.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.6406,
"raw_edge_display": "+28.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 28.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7424,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+74.2%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Talleres",
"sort_key": 10301.11,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 62.6,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 37.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 42.4,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 57.6
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-0",
"top_prob": 9.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "13/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "13/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"alert_team": "Talleres",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 28.4,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 28.45,
"hero_label": "Talleres",
"market_prob_pct": 35.6,
"market_team": "Talleres",
"model_prob_pct": 64.0,
"model_team": "Talleres",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 28.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 28.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1679,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7423,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Talleres at 64.1% vs market 35.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Talleres as the stronger side (64.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 28.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talleres",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Talleres \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.72 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +74% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493029 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.72 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +74% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 46,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "+16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6406,
"raw_edge_display": "+28.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 28.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7424,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+74.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 65.2,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 65%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "13/13",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 82,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (28 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (65%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 10.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 46,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 28.45,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 28.45,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.0,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 65.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.23,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.23,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.23 \u00b7 Away xG 1.00 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +65%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"steam_team": "Talleres",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 28.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 28.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1679,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7423,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Talleres at 64.1% vs market 35.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Talleres as the stronger side (64.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 28.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talleres",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Talleres \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.72 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +74% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493029 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.72 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +74% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 46,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "+16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6406,
"raw_edge_display": "+28.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 28.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7424,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+74.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 65.2,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 65%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Talleres 2.23 xG vs V\u00e9lez Sarsfield 1.00 \u2192 Talleres 64.0%",
"Market: Talleres ~35.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Talleres odds \u2191 +22.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Talleres, but the market has moved away from Talleres.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 28.45,
"fair_prob": 64.05,
"label": "Talleres",
"market_prob": 35.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.47,
"fair_prob": 21.39,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 33.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.0,
"fair_prob": 14.55,
"label": "V\u00e9lez Sarsfield",
"market_prob": 30.55,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 57.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 42.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 28.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.05,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Talleres",
"market_prob_pct": 35.6,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Talleres"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Talleres\u0027s win probability at 64.0%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 35.6%, a difference of 28.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 28.45,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "Talleres",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+28.4 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 28.4,
"model_prob_pct": 64.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+28.4 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 28.4,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 46,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 13,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 64,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Talleres 2.23 xG vs V\u00e9lez Sarsfield 1.00 \u2192 Talleres 64.0%",
"Market: Talleres ~35.6% implied",
"Market Drift: Talleres odds \u2191 +22.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Talleres, but the market has moved away from Talleres.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 28.45,
"hero_label": "Talleres",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Talleres odds lengthened \u2191 +22.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 28.45,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 42.7 pp (at 64.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 42.7,
"max_prob_pct": 64.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Talleres",
"largest_gap_pp": 28.4,
"lead": "The model rates Talleres considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 28.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 28.45,
"edge_pp": 28.45,
"fair_prob_pct": 64.05,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Talleres",
"market_prob_pct": 35.6,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -12.47,
"edge_pp": -12.47,
"fair_prob_pct": 21.39,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 33.86,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -16.0,
"edge_pp": -16.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 14.55,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "V\u00e9lez Sarsfield",
"market_prob_pct": 30.55,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Talleres (35.6%).",
"However, Talleres has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +22.7%, 13/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Talleres, Market \u2192 Talleres, while Talleres odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 36.76,
"closing_odds": 2.72,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 36.76,
"entry_odds": 2.72,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 13,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +17.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 17.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.3
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 22.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 115h 23m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"13/13 books lengthened Talleres together (22.7% drift, score 74) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.72",
"2.46",
"2.20"
],
"display": "2.70 \u2192 2.15 \u2192 2.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 115h 23m",
"pick_team": "Talleres",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.15"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.2,
2.72,
2.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,0.7",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.20"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.72"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.2,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Talleres odds \u2191 +22.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Talleres",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Talleres odds \u2191 +22.7% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"summary": "Market moved away from Talleres while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Talleres",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "13/13",
"current_odds": 2.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +22.7%",
"open_odds": 2.2,
"pick_team": "Talleres",
"steam_score": 74,
"steam_team_name": "Talleres",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 28.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "V\u00e9lez Sarsfield",
"away_team_id": 438,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/438.webp",
"away_team_name": "V\u00e9lez Sarsfield",
"away_team_slug": "velez-sarsfield",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493029,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Talleres",
"home_team_id": 456,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/456.webp",
"home_team_name": "Talleres",
"home_team_slug": "talleres-cordoba",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-30 22:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Cordoba",
"venue_name": "Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.228,
"best_odd": 3.17,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0365,
"ev": -0.1474,
"implied_prob": 0.3055,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3055,
"draw": 0.3386,
"home": 0.356
},
"model_prob": 0.1455,
"p_final": 0.269
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.3659,
"best_odd": 2.86,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0456,
"ev": -0.1621,
"implied_prob": 0.3386,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3055,
"draw": 0.3386,
"home": 0.356
},
"model_prob": 0.214,
"p_final": 0.293
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2579,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0734,
"ev": 0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3055,
"draw": 0.3386,
"home": 0.356
},
"model_prob": 0.6406,
"p_final": 0.4294
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.17,
"edge": -0.17,
"ev": -0.5389,
"implied_prob": 0.3155,
"model_prob": 0.1455
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 2.86,
"edge": -0.1357,
"ev": -0.388,
"implied_prob": 0.3497,
"model_prob": 0.214
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": 0.2729,
"ev": 0.7423,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.6406
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.23,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1679,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7423,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1679,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 7.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 28.5,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 28.5,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1679,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7423,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 13,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Talleres at 64.1% vs market 35.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Talleres as the stronger side (64.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 28.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Talleres",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Talleres \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.72 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +74% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493029 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.72 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +16.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +16.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +16.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +16.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "46 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "13 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+16.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Talleres, but the model still strongly favours Talleres.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +74% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 46,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "+16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6406,
"raw_edge_display": "+28.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 28.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7424,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+74.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 65.2,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 65%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.576,
"draw_prob": 0.214,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6406,
"over_prob": 0.626,
"total_xg": 3.23,
"under_prob": 0.374,
"xg_diff": 1.23
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0734,
"ev": 0.1679,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6406,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Talleres"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.576,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.626,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1493029,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1679,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1455,
"draw": 0.214,
"home": 0.6406
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "V\u00e9lez Sarsfield",
"home": "Talleres"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.129068,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1679,
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6406,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Talleres",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1679,
"consensus_ev_display": "+16.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.72,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.356,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.6406,
"raw_edge_display": "+28.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 28.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3676470588235294,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7424,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+74.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493029,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-30T22:00:09.393839+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Profesional Argentina — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto | 16 | 14.2 | 5.0 | +9.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 3 | Lanús | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9.2 | 6.0 | +3.2 | 30 |
| 5 | Unión de Santa Fe | 16 | 9.1 | 6.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes de La Plata | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia de Mendoza | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
