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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (4 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Bray Wanderers Dibujar ✖ Incorrecto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.88
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Draw · Treaty United 2–2 Bray Wanderers
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2964,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.73,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
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"fair_odds_home": 2.96,
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"home_predicted_xg": 1.27,
"home_win_prob": 0.3377,
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"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Bray Wanderers",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Bray Wanderers"
},
"away_xg": 1.33,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.139,
"edge_gap": 0.0284,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.505,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.6,
"draw": 29.6,
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
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"market_comparison": [
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"overround": 5.3,
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"value_pct": -31.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
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},
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 18,
"away_score_rate": 73.6,
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"home_played": 18,
"home_score_rate": 71.9,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
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"source": "xG_dc",
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"scores": [
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{
"away": 1,
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{
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{
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],
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"key": "1X",
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{
"key": "12",
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{
"key": "X2",
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Home",
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"odds": 3.96
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
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"early_capture": "PRE30",
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"home_team": "Treaty United",
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{
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{
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{
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"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
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{
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"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
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"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.96,
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{
"closing": 3.72,
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"kind": "1x2_d"
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{
"closing": 1.88,
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{
"closing": 1.73,
"early": 1.73,
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{
"closing": 2.13,
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"kind": "ou_u"
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"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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"most_likely": {
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"prob": 12.5
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},
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"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_over_display": {
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"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
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"ev_under": 0.1137,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.4,
"text": "+11.4%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1137,
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"tier": "best",
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"value_side": "under"
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{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1747,
"ev_available": true,
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"raw_pct": -17.5,
"text": "-17.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"max_ev": 0.0486,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.9,
"text": "+4.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.366,
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"sort_key": 5238.88,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0101,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": 1.0,
"text": "+1.0%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": -9.0,
"text": "-9.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"sort_key": 5208.08,
"tier": "lean",
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},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"alert_team": "Treaty United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 13.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.91,
"hero_label": "Bray Wanderers",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"market_team": "Bray Wanderers",
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"model_team": "Bray Wanderers",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.79,
"fair_prob": 33.77,
"label": "Treaty United",
"market_prob": 23.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob": 29.64,
"label": "Draw",
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"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.91,
"fair_prob": 36.59,
"label": "Bray Wanderers",
"market_prob": 50.5,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.25,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.45,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.25,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.55,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.72,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.72,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -13.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Bray Wanderers",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Treaty United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 13.91,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bray Wanderers",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Both lean Bray Wanderers, but the market prices them higher (50.5% vs model 36.6%). The edge remains modest and the match stays relatively open.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -13.91,
"hero_label": "Bray Wanderers",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Treaty United odds shortened \u2193 -2.8%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, recent buying interest has been on Treaty United, with odds shortening by 2.8%. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about Bray Wanderers than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about Bray Wanderers than the current fair estimate.",
"However, recent buying interest has been on Treaty United, with odds shortening by 2.8%. Confirmation remains limited (5/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors Bray Wanderers more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Treaty United has attracted buying interest, with odds shortening by 2.8%.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (5/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 13.91,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
"max_prob_pct": 36.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.79,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Treaty United",
"market_prob_pct": 23.98,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.12,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 25.52,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.59,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Bray Wanderers",
"market_prob_pct": 50.5,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bray Wanderers (50.5%).",
"Treaty United has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -2.8%, 5/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bray Wanderers, Market \u2192 Bray Wanderers, Recent sharp money \u2192 Treaty United.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 53.19,
"closing_odds": 1.88,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 53.19,
"entry_odds": 1.88,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"move_pct_abs": 2.8,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Treaty United (swing 3.98 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.50) \u2014 net 2.8% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.98 \u2192 3.25 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 59m",
"pick_team": "Treaty United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.98"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,14.1 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Treaty United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/13",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -2.8%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Treaty United",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Treaty United",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 13.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 3847,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3847.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bray Wanderers",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492912,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_id": 16498,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16498.webp",
"home_team_name": "Treaty United",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_id": 358,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/358.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Divisi\u00f3n de Irlanda",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 18:45:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Limerick",
"venue_name": "Markets Field"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4749,
"best_odd": 1.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.066,
"ev": -0.1747,
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"model_prob": 0.366,
"p_final": 0.439
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2814,
"best_odd": 3.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0116,
"ev": -0.0074,
"implied_prob": 0.2552,
"model_prob": 0.2965,
"p_final": 0.2668
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.256,
"best_odd": 3.96,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.025,
"ev": 0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.2398,
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"p_final": 0.2648
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.22,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"edge_no": 0.0272,
"edge_yes": -0.0272,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0101,
"ev_yes": -0.0898,
"implied_no": 0.4278,
"implied_yes": 0.5722,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.73,
"best_under_odd": 2.15,
"edge_over": -0.0725,
"edge_under": 0.0725,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1661,
"ev_under": 0.1137,
"implied_over": 0.5545,
"implied_under": 0.4455,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1137,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0486,
"implied_prob": 0.2398,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3375,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Treaty United",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.066,
"ev": -0.1747,
"implied_prob": 0.505,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.366,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bray Wanderers"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0272,
"ev": 0.0101,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0725,
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492912,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1137,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.366,
"draw": 0.2965,
"home": 0.3375
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bray Wanderers",
"home": "Treaty United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041228,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1137,
"implied_prob": 0.4455,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492912,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T18:44:15.229996+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Primera División de Irlanda — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 32 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 71 |
| 2 | Bray Wanderers | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| 3 | UCD | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 49 |
| 4 | Cobh Ramblers | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 45 |
| 5 | Longford Town | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 6 | Athlone Town | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 7 | Kerry | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 42 |
| 8 | Wexford | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 40 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 33 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 32 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 25 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 32 | 69 | 30 | +39 | 71 |
| 2 | Bray Wanderers | 32 | 61 | 44 | +17 | 50 |
| 3 | UCD | 32 | 56 | 45 | +11 | 49 |
| 4 | Longford Town | 32 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 44 |
| 5 | Kerry | 32 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
| 6 | Cobh Ramblers | 32 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 45 |
| 7 | Wexford | 32 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 40 |
| 8 | Athlone Town | 32 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 44 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 32 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 33 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 32 | 29 | 64 | -35 | 25 |
