Casa de apuestas premium stake: los nuevos usuarios pueden usar el código promoFHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Registrarse
Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Menos de 2.5 (1 objetivos) ✔ Correcto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS Sí No ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 St Patrick's Athletic St Patrick's Athletic ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correcto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.41
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
St Patrick's Athletic win · Sligo Rovers 0–1 St Patrick's Athletic
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "9155c4d48880cd660cc7e4e6d62743624380cae1fb62d7fa8f3f7aa1ebf35a05",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"afp_away_win_prob": 0.5888,
"afp_draw_prob": 0.2445,
"afp_home_win_prob": 0.1667,
"away_predicted_xg": 1.77,
"away_win_prob": 0.5888,
"away_win_prob_posterior": 0.5888,
"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.477,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.523,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2445,
"draw_prob_posterior": 0.2445,
"fair_odds_away": 1.7,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": 1.7,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.09,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": 4.09,
"fair_odds_home": 6.0,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": 6.0,
"home_predicted_xg": 0.95,
"home_win_prob": 0.1667,
"home_win_prob_posterior": 0.1667,
"over_25_prob": 0.511,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.489
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
},
"away_xg": 1.77,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"edge": -0.0907,
"edge_gap": 0.3439,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.6793,
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
"away": 58.9,
"draw": 24.5,
"home": 16.7
},
"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 1.41
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 1.41,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.47,
"market_odds": 1.41,
"model_odds": 1.7,
"overround": 4.4,
"prob_edge": -12.1,
"value_pct": -17.1,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 11,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 30,
"away_score_rate": 83.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 15,
"home_played": 30,
"home_score_rate": 61.3,
"no_prob": 47.7,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 52.3,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 52.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.77,
"home_expected": 0.95,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Sligo Rovers or Draw",
"prob": 41.1
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Sligo Rovers or St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"prob": 75.6
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"prob": 83.3
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"pick_prob": 83.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 58.9,
"draw_pct": 24.4,
"home_pct": 16.7,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.72,
"away_avg_scored": 1.6,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 51.1,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.72,
"under_prob": 48.9
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 26.9,
"implied_prob": 13.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Sligo Rovers Win",
"model_prob": 16.7,
"odds": 7.6
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 67.93,
"draw": 19.47,
"home": 12.6
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 18:44:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 18:14:36",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 12.6,
"gap_pp": 4.07,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 16.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.47,
"gap_pp": 5.0,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 24.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 67.93,
"gap_pp": -9.07,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 58.86
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 57.97,
"gap_pp": -6.87,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 51.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 42.03,
"gap_pp": 6.87,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 48.9
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 7.6,
"early": 7.6,
"implied_closing_pct": 12.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 12.6,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.92,
"early": 4.92,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.47,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 19.47,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 1.41,
"early": 1.41,
"implied_closing_pct": 67.93,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 67.93,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.66,
"early": 1.66,
"implied_closing_pct": 57.97,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 57.97,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.29,
"early": 2.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 42.03,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 42.03,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 6.9,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -0.8,
"ev": -0.064,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "0-1",
"market_odds": 8.0,
"market_prob": 0.125,
"market_prob_pct": 12.5,
"model_prob": 0.117,
"model_prob_pct": 11.7,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.7
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 11.1
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 10.3
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 6.6
}
]
},
"home_xg": 0.95,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4759,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0297,
"edge_pp": 3.0,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.489,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5235,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"p_final": 0.5407
},
"p_final": 0.4564,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 6.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.0709,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0006,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4759,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": -0.0006,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.489,
"p_final": 0.4564
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -15.2,
"text": "-15.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.1247,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 12.5,
"text": "+12.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.1247,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 51.1,
"sort_key": 10262.23,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 48.9,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1085,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.8,
"text": "-10.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0159,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 1.6,
"text": "+1.6%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1701,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"sort_key": 5212.72,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0113,
"edge_pp": 1.1,
"market_prob": 0.5007,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.523,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.477,
"p_final": 0.488
},
"p_final": 0.512,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0351,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0554,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"p_final": 0.512
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0889,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.9,
"text": "-8.9%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.0011,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -0.1,
"text": "-0.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": -0.0011,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 47.7,
"sort_key": 4049.846,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 52.3
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 11.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"alert_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.05,
"hero_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 67.9,
"market_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"model_prob_pct": 58.9,
"model_team": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2674,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic at 58.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St Patrick\u0027s Athletic as the value side (58.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.59 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492775 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.59 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1701,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.82"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.82
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8888888888888888,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.9,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.05,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.77,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.95,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.77,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.95 \u00b7 Away xG 1.77 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +31%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"steam_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2674,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic at 58.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St Patrick\u0027s Athletic as the value side (58.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.59 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492775 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.59 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1701,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.82"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.82
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sligo Rovers 0.95 xG vs St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 1.77 \u2192 St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 58.9%",
"Market: St Patrick\u0027s Athletic ~67.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Sligo Rovers odds \u2191 +15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic projects stronger on expected goals (+0.82 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 4.07,
"fair_prob": 16.67,
"label": "Sligo Rovers",
"market_prob": 12.6,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 4.98,
"fair_prob": 24.45,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 19.47,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob": 58.88,
"label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob": 67.93,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.38,
"fair_prob": 51.1,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 57.48,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.38,
"fair_prob": 48.9,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 42.52,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.32,
"fair_prob": 52.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 49.98,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.32,
"fair_prob": 47.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 50.02,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.88,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 67.93,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Sligo Rovers"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic\u0027s win probability at 67.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 58.9%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 67.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -9.0,
"model_prob_pct": 58.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-9.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -9.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 58,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Sligo Rovers 0.95 xG vs St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 1.77 \u2192 St Patrick\u0027s Athletic 58.9%",
"Market: St Patrick\u0027s Athletic ~67.9% implied",
"Market Drift: Sligo Rovers odds \u2191 +15.4%"
],
"one_liner": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic projects stronger on expected goals (+0.82 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.05,
"hero_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Sligo Rovers odds lengthened \u2191 +15.4%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Sligo Rovers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on St Patrick\u0027s Athletic. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Sligo Rovers has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices St Patrick\u0027s Athletic above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Sligo Rovers has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (8/9) supports the current market view on Sligo Rovers."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.05,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 34.4 pp (at 58.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 34.4,
"max_prob_pct": 58.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices St Patrick\u0027s Athletic higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 4.07,
"edge_pp": 4.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 16.67,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Sligo Rovers",
"market_prob_pct": 12.6,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 4.98,
"edge_pp": 4.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.45,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 19.47,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.05,
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 58.88,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"market_prob_pct": 67.93,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Sligo Rovers \u2014 odds lengthened by 15.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers St Patrick\u0027s Athletic (67.9%).",
"However, Sligo Rovers has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +15.4%, 8/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 70.92,
"closing_odds": 1.41,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 70.92,
"entry_odds": 1.41,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "2H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 2H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +23.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 23.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +16.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 16.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +13.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 13.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 7.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 15.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 124h 3m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"8/9 books lengthened Sligo Rovers together (15.4% drift, score 55) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"7.60",
"7.05",
"6.50"
],
"display": "8.00 \u2192 5.53 \u2192 7.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 124h 3m",
"pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "8.00"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "5.53"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
6.5,
7.6,
7.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.6",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "6.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "7.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "7.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 6.5,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/9 sportsbooks on Sligo Rovers",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 7.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Sligo Rovers",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/9",
"current_odds": 7.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"open_odds": 6.5,
"pick_team": "Sligo Rovers",
"steam_score": 55,
"steam_team_name": "Sligo Rovers",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "st-patrick-s-athl",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"away_team_id": 3843,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3843.webp",
"away_team_name": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"away_team_public_id": "2crmlSiChcZFaJ",
"away_team_slug": "st-patrick-s-athl",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_display_name": "Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_id": 77,
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492775,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Sligo Rovers",
"home_team_id": 3842,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3842.webp",
"home_team_name": "Sligo Rovers",
"home_team_public_id": "0SAS0SbiUAKwrC",
"home_team_slug": "sligo-rovers",
"ht.home_team_slug": "sligo-rovers",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Ireland",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
"league_public_id": "1IkShdACEGEHBz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 18:45:00",
"public_id": "2dzNlDVj1de25f",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Second Half",
"status_short": "2H",
"venue_city": "Sligo",
"venue_name": "The Showgrounds"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.5184,
"best_odd": 1.41,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.047,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6793,
"draw": 0.1947,
"home": 0.126
},
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"p_final": 0.6323
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.185,
"best_odd": 4.92,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0092,
"ev": 0.0033,
"implied_prob": 0.1947,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6793,
"draw": 0.1947,
"home": 0.126
},
"model_prob": 0.2446,
"p_final": 0.2039
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1878,
"best_odd": 7.6,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0076,
"ev": 0.0159,
"implied_prob": 0.126,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.6793,
"draw": 0.1947,
"home": 0.126
},
"model_prob": 0.1668,
"p_final": 0.1337
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.41,
"edge": -0.1206,
"ev": -0.1701,
"implied_prob": 0.7092,
"model_prob": 0.5886
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.92,
"edge": 0.0414,
"ev": 0.2037,
"implied_prob": 0.2033,
"model_prob": 0.2446
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 7.6,
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": 0.2674,
"implied_prob": 0.1316,
"model_prob": 0.1668
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5074,
"alpha_yes": 0.5074,
"best_no_odd": 1.91,
"best_yes_odd": 1.91,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0232,
"edge_yes": 0.0232,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.0889,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0972,
"ev_yes": -0.0011,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0554,
"implied_no": 0.5002,
"implied_yes": 0.4998,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.477,
"p_final": 0.488
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"p_final": 0.512
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.488,
"p_final_yes": 0.512,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.5235,
"alpha_under": 0.4759,
"best_over_odd": 1.66,
"best_under_odd": 2.3,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.63,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.19,
"edge_over": -0.0638,
"edge_under": 0.0638,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1517,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1187,
"ev_under": 0.1247,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0006,
"implied_over": 0.5748,
"implied_over_mf": 0.5733,
"implied_under": 0.4252,
"implied_under_mf": 0.4267,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5235,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"p_final": 0.5407
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4759,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": -0.0006,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.489,
"p_final": 0.4564
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5407,
"p_final_under": 0.4564,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.72,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2674,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1247,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.2
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.1,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1247,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2674,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.2,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates St Patrick\u0027s Athletic at 58.9%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 67.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies St Patrick\u0027s Athletic as the value side (58.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.1,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side St Patrick\u0027s Athletic \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.59 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +27% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492775 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.59 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +12.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +12.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +12.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+12.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (St Patrick\u0027s Athletic).",
"Decision strength: 8.7/10",
"Outlier price +27% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1701,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 31.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.82"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.82
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.523,
"draw_prob": 0.2446,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5886,
"over_prob": 0.511,
"total_xg": 2.72,
"under_prob": 0.489,
"xg_diff": 0.82
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.047,
"ev": -0.1085,
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0113,
"market_prob": 0.5007,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.523,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0113,
"ev": -0.0972,
"implied_prob": 0.4993,
"model_prob": 0.477,
"p_final": 0.488
},
"p_final": 0.512,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0554,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5074,
"best_odd": 1.845,
"edge": 0.0113,
"ev": -0.0554,
"implied_prob": 0.5007,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"p_final": 0.512
}
},
"edge": 0.0232,
"ev": -0.0011,
"implied_prob": 0.4998,
"model_prob": 0.523,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4759,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0297,
"market_prob": 0.4267,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.489,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.5235,
"best_odd": 1.63,
"edge": -0.0326,
"ev": -0.1187,
"implied_prob": 0.5733,
"model_prob": 0.511,
"p_final": 0.5407
},
"p_final": 0.4564,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0006,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4759,
"best_odd": 2.19,
"edge": 0.0297,
"ev": -0.0006,
"implied_prob": 0.4267,
"model_prob": 0.489,
"p_final": 0.4564
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0638,
"ev": 0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.4252,
"model_prob": 0.489,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492775,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1247,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5886,
"draw": 0.2446,
"home": 0.1668
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "St Patrick\u0027s Athletic",
"home": "Sligo Rovers"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.060978,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1247,
"implied_prob": 0.4252,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.489,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1085,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.41,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.6793,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5886,
"raw_edge_display": "-9.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -9.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.7092198581560284,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1701,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492775,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T20:02:59.707050+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Explora Más Contenido de Predicciones
Obtén predicciones premium para Sligo Rovers & St Patrick's Athletic!
Desbloquea análisis en profundidad, consejos de apuestas exclusivos y pronósticos de partidos con nuestro servicio de suscripción premium.
Suscríbete ahora
Liga Premier de Irlanda — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |
