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Mercados rastreados versus resultado de tiempo completo
Cada fila compara el modelo previo al partido con el resultado de tiempo completo.
- Mercado Predicción Resultado Resultado
- Más / Menos 2.5 Menos de 2.5 Más de 2.5 (5 objetivos) ✖ Incorrecto
- Ambos Equipos Marcarán BTTS No Sí ✖ Incorrecto
- 1X2 Bohemians Bohemians ✔ Correcto
- Perspectivas de marcador exacto 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrecto
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.0
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
+0.0%
Final Result
Bohemians win · Galway United 2–3 Bohemians
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"over_25_prob": 0.484,
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : Bohemians",
"main_pick_display": "No Value Bet in 1X2",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Bohemians"
},
"away_xg": 1.62,
"betting_insight": {
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"main_pick_meta": {
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"edge": -0.0177,
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"pick_type": "no_value",
"probabilities": {
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"reason": "Model probability is not above market implied probability",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"odd": 1.82
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],
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"display_market": "Bohemians Win",
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"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 1.89,
"market_odds": 1.82,
"model_odds": 1.96,
"overround": 4.1,
"prob_edge": -3.9,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 3,
"away_played": 29,
"away_score_rate": 80.2,
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"no_prob": 48.1,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 51.9,
"source": "xG_dc",
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"yes_prob": 51.9
},
"correct_score": {
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{
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{
"away": 2,
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{
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{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
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},
{
"key": "12",
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
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},
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"prob_source": "poisson",
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"label": "Draw",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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},
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"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 18:44:11",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-11 18:14:20",
"has_data": true,
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},
{
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{
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{
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"movement": [
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{
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{
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{
"label": "0-2",
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{
"label": "1-2",
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{
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5592,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0823,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.2,
"text": "+8.2%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1333,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -13.3,
"text": "-13.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no_prob": 48.1,
"sort_key": 10074.07,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 51.9
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0582,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -5.8,
"text": "-5.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0175,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -1.8,
"text": "-1.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5101,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0716,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.2%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Bohemians",
"sort_key": 1795.625,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "0-1",
"top_prob": 11.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"alert_team": "Galway United",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 2.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.88,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 52.8,
"market_team": "Bohemians",
"model_prob_pct": 51.0,
"model_team": "Bohemians",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bohemians)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bohemians)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1404,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1404,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bohemians at 51.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bohemians as the value side (51.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bohemians",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bohemians).",
"Decision strength: 8.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0582,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5101,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0716,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
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],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.63
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "8/14",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"evidence": {
"score": 96,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Moderate model lean",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 23.6,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 2.88,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 2.88,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.62,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.99,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.62,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.99 \u00b7 Away xG 1.62 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +20%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"steam_team": "Galway United",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bohemians).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bohemians)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bohemians)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1404,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1404,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bohemians at 51.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bohemians as the value side (51.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bohemians",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bohemians).",
"Decision strength: 8.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0582,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5101,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0716,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.63"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.63
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Galway United 0.99 xG vs Bohemians 1.62 \u2192 Bohemians 51.0%",
"Market: Bohemians ~52.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Galway United odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Bohemians projects stronger on expected goals (+0.63 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.07,
"fair_prob": 22.13,
"label": "Galway United",
"market_prob": 23.2,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.88,
"fair_prob": 26.9,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 24.02,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.81,
"fair_prob": 50.97,
"label": "Bohemians",
"market_prob": 52.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -7.24,
"fair_prob": 48.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 55.64,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.24,
"fair_prob": 51.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 44.36,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.32,
"fair_prob": 51.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.32,
"fair_prob": 48.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "aligned",
"edge_pp": 2.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.9,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.02,
"status": "aligned",
"steam_team_name": "Galway United"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"edge_status": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.88,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "",
"divergence_level": "aligned",
"divergence_level_label": "Aligned",
"divergence_note": "",
"divergence_tier": "aligned",
"edge_label": "Aligned",
"edge_label_key": "aligned",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Bohemians",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.8,
"model_prob_pct": 51.0,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.8,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Bohemians \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Galway United 0.99 xG vs Bohemians 1.62 \u2192 Bohemians 51.0%",
"Market: Bohemians ~52.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Galway United odds \u2191 +5.4%"
],
"one_liner": "Bohemians projects stronger on expected goals (+0.63 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 2.88,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Galway United odds lengthened \u2191 +5.4%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Current pricing remains close to the model baseline."
],
"follow_up": "However, Galway United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "aligned",
"lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Galway United \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
"However, Galway United has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Galway United \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"Market pricing and the fair estimate remain broadly aligned.",
"At the same time, Galway United has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 2.88,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 24.1 pp (at 51.0%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 24.1,
"max_prob_pct": 51.0,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "aligned",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 2.9,
"lead": "The model and closing market are broadly aligned.",
"level": "aligned",
"max_gap_pp": 2.9,
"title": "Broadly Aligned"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.07,
"edge_pp": -1.07,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.13,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Galway United",
"market_prob_pct": 23.2,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.88,
"edge_pp": 2.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.9,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 24.02,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.81,
"edge_pp": -1.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 50.97,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bohemians",
"market_prob_pct": 52.78,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "aligned",
"status_label": "Aligned",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Galway United \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.4% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Bohemians (52.8%).",
"Galway United odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.4%, 8/14) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Bohemians \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.0,
"closing_odds": 4.0,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.0,
"entry_odds": 4.0,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +14.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 14.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.4,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Galway United (5.4%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.4,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.14",
"3.92",
"3.70"
],
"display": "4.14 \u2192 3.30 \u2192 3.90",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 81h 49m",
"pick_team": "Galway United",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.14"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.7,
4.14,
3.9
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.8",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.14"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.90"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.7,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/14 sportsbooks on Galway United",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Galway United",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.9,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Galway United",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/14",
"current_odds": 3.9,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.4%",
"open_odds": 3.7,
"pick_team": "Galway United",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Galway United",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 2.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "bohemians",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Bohemians",
"away_team_id": 3840,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3840.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bohemians",
"away_team_public_id": "5indpyocL0Kf0v",
"away_team_slug": "bohemians",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_display_name": "Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_id": 77,
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492767,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 1,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 1,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Galway United",
"home_team_id": 3851,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3851.webp",
"home_team_name": "Galway United",
"home_team_public_id": "3LCVkE9ArHBtjH",
"home_team_slug": "galway-united",
"ht.home_team_slug": "galway-united",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Ireland",
"league_display_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Premier de Irlanda",
"league_public_id": "1IkShdACEGEHBz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-11 18:45:00",
"public_id": "4nLrTs28d8WVE2",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Galway",
"venue_name": "Eamonn Deacy Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.584,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.5278,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5278,
"draw": 0.2402,
"home": 0.232
},
"model_prob": 0.5101,
"p_final": 0.5175
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1914,
"best_odd": 4.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0055,
"ev": -0.0175,
"implied_prob": 0.2402,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5278,
"draw": 0.2402,
"home": 0.232
},
"model_prob": 0.2687,
"p_final": 0.2456
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.1967,
"best_odd": 4.14,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0021,
"ev": -0.0482,
"implied_prob": 0.232,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5278,
"draw": 0.2402,
"home": 0.232
},
"model_prob": 0.2212,
"p_final": 0.2299
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.0394,
"ev": -0.0717,
"implied_prob": 0.5495,
"model_prob": 0.5101
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.0,
"edge": 0.0187,
"ev": 0.075,
"implied_prob": 0.25,
"model_prob": 0.2687
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 4.14,
"edge": -0.0204,
"ev": -0.0843,
"implied_prob": 0.2415,
"model_prob": 0.2212
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5084,
"alpha_yes": 0.5592,
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.67,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.0532,
"edge_yes": -0.0532,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0823,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0184,
"ev_yes": -0.1333,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1222,
"implied_no": 0.4278,
"implied_yes": 0.5722,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5084,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0264,
"ev": -0.0184,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"model_prob": 0.481,
"p_final": 0.4555
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5592,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5709,
"model_prob": 0.519,
"p_final": 0.5419
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"p_final_no": 0.4555,
"p_final_yes": 0.5419,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.54,
"alpha_under": 0.4909,
"best_over_odd": 1.71,
"best_under_odd": 2.21,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.67,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.1,
"edge_over": -0.0724,
"edge_under": 0.0724,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.1724,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1356,
"ev_under": 0.1404,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0055,
"implied_over": 0.5564,
"implied_over_mf": 0.557,
"implied_under": 0.4436,
"implied_under_mf": 0.443,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.54,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0394,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.557,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"p_final": 0.5176
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4909,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0358,
"ev": 0.0055,
"implied_prob": 0.443,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"p_final": 0.4788
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.5176,
"p_final_under": 0.4788,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.61,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1404,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1404,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1404,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.4,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 8.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.4
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 2.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "high",
"probability_gap_pp": 2.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bohemians)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1404,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.1404,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.4,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bohemians at 51.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bohemians as the value side (51.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.8,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bohemians",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +14.0% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +14.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+14.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Bohemians).",
"Decision strength: 8.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0582,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5101,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0716,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 20.0,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.63"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.63
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.519,
"draw_prob": 0.2687,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5101,
"over_prob": 0.484,
"total_xg": 2.61,
"under_prob": 0.516,
"xg_diff": 0.63
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0104,
"ev": -0.0582,
"implied_prob": 0.5278,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.5101,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bohemians"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.5084,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0264,
"market_prob": 0.4291,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.481,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5084,
"best_odd": 2.155,
"edge": 0.0264,
"ev": -0.0184,
"implied_prob": 0.4291,
"model_prob": 0.481,
"p_final": 0.4555
},
"p_final": 0.4555,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0184,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5592,
"best_odd": 1.62,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1222,
"implied_prob": 0.5709,
"model_prob": 0.519,
"p_final": 0.5419
}
},
"edge": 0.0532,
"ev": 0.0823,
"implied_prob": 0.4278,
"model_prob": 0.481,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.4909,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0358,
"market_prob": 0.443,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.516,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.54,
"best_odd": 1.67,
"edge": -0.0394,
"ev": -0.1356,
"implied_prob": 0.557,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"p_final": 0.5176
},
"p_final": 0.4788,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0055,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.4909,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0358,
"ev": 0.0055,
"implied_prob": 0.443,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"p_final": 0.4788
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.0724,
"ev": 0.1404,
"implied_prob": 0.4436,
"model_prob": 0.516,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492767,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1404,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.5101,
"draw": 0.2687,
"home": 0.2212
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bohemians",
"home": "Galway United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.072446,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1404,
"implied_prob": 0.4436,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.516,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0582,
"consensus_ev_display": "-5.8%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.5278,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5101,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.8 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.8,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0716,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-7.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492767,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-11T19:27:59.185198+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Liga Premier de Irlanda — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GF | GC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |
